95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
watch out Bermuda

OH NO! You have been saying that right from the start. How long do you recon we have until we get blown away?
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883. xcool
stormwatcherCI .thank
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Because this bears repeating...

I don't know why I'm saying this, because the ignorant will continue reveling happily in their ignorance (ignorance is bliss, as they say), but I decided to look at various years in which a La Nina was present following an El Nino event the previous year.

Near as I can tell, the two closest analogs so far are 1998 and 1988. I'm not going to bother reiterating what happened in the former, since most of you are probably well aware of it at this point.

I will however, state what happened in 1988. The season did not begin until August 5, when the tropical depression that would ultimately spawn Alberto formed off the southeast coast from a trough split. Before that, there was one tropical depression that formed in May and persisted into early June. Aside from that, nothing at all occurred until August. And even after Alberto, conditions obviously weren't very ripe for widespread development in the basin, evidenced by Beryl being pathetic and weak, as well as a handful of unnamed tropical depressions that followed it.

Then there was Chris, which remained a tropical depression almost throughout its entire lifetime, despite forming well to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Next was Debby, which did not become a hurricane until September 2, which I believe is the latest formation date for the first hurricane. We had two more weak systems follow Debby (Ernesto and Tropical Depression Ten), and then came Florence and Gilbert, the latter of which was the most powerful hurricane in the basin until Wilma surpassed it in 2005.

After Florence, however, the dam broke, and the season ended up producing 12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, the most major hurricanes since 1969. In addition to Gilbert, there was Helene, a Category 4 that recurved harmlessly out to sea, and Joan, another Category 4 that was a rare October Cape Verde hurricane, and also one that took an unusually southerly path, affecting the Windward Islands, South, and Central America.

Hopefully this is some food for thought for those still ignorantly claiming this season is a bust (and yes, insofar as the preseason forecasts are concerned, it has been a bust, but it will still be very much active).


It bears reposting too, also there are countless examples of La Nina seasons starting late and having most of the storms form after this date.

+500 for that post
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Why all the secrets? Come on give it up.
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880. xcool
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Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 .do your see move west or i'm wrong ?
Looks west to me.
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Quoting xcool:




mm...
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Sat 21 Aug 2010 20:00:02Z
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
06L.SIX

NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere


Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems
Tropical Depression 09E.NINE
Tropical Depression 08E

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
96L.INVEST
06L.SIX
East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
While we are waiting for the 5pm update---anyone want to guess who upgraded it?


Stewart?
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Because this bears repeating...

I don't know why I'm saying this, because the ignorant will continue reveling happily in their ignorance (ignorance is bliss, as they say), but I decided to look at various years in which a La Nina was present following an El Nino event the previous year.

Near as I can tell, the two closest analogs so far are 1998 and 1988. I'm not going to bother reiterating what happened in the former, since most of you are probably well aware of it at this point.

I will however, state what happened in 1988. The season did not begin until August 5, when the tropical depression that would ultimately spawn Alberto formed off the southeast coast from a trough split. Before that, there was one tropical depression that formed in May and persisted into early June. Aside from that, nothing at all occurred until August. And even after Alberto, conditions obviously weren't very ripe for widespread development in the basin, evidenced by Beryl being pathetic and weak, as well as a handful of unnamed tropical depressions that followed it.

Then there was Chris, which remained a tropical depression almost throughout its entire lifetime, despite forming well to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Next was Debby, which did not become a hurricane until September 2, which I believe is the latest formation date for the first hurricane. We had two more weak systems follow Debby (Ernesto and Tropical Depression Ten), and then came Florence and Gilbert, the latter of which was the most powerful hurricane in the basin until Wilma surpassed it in 2005.

After Florence, however, the dam broke, and the season ended up producing 12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, the most major hurricanes since 1969. In addition to Gilbert, there was Helene, a Category 4 that recurved harmlessly out to sea, and Joan, another Category 4 that was a rare October Cape Verde hurricane, and also one that took an unusually southerly path, affecting the Windward Islands, South, and Central America.

Hopefully this is some food for thought for those still ignorantly claiming this season is a bust (and yes, insofar as the preseason forecasts are concerned, it has been a bust, but it will still be very much active).
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Quoting PELLSPROG:
Now watch this blog hit warp speed because of all this TD talk :)


Of course, we need to stay on top of things.Lol.
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Quoting btwntx08:

navy site
Not on mine. This always issue.
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Actually---what I'm curious about is which NHC met will be writing the discussion. Would they not be the ones who decided?
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The NHC will probably follow the models with a strong trough breaking the ridge allowing the storm to move north somewhere around 50W.
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TD8E, TD9E and TD6 advisories just 30-40 minutes away...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
heh 93E and 95L both be came a TD at the same time
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867. xcool


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Now watch this blog hit warp speed because of all this TD talk :)
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Quoting btwntx08:

navy site


LOL

He meant the NHC forecaster, I think.

And I'll guess Stewart.
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Quoting scott39:
TD6 winds- 25knts pressure-1008mb coordinates-10.8N 31.8W per tropicalatlantic.com



i think the nhc will go with 30kt for the time being
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862. xcool
btwntx08 .do your see move west or i'm wrong ?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Shear prevented organized deep convection from forming all around the center.



ok
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TD6 winds- 25knts pressure-1008mb coordinates-10.8N 31.8W per tropicalatlantic.com
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watch out Bermuda
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Quoting Patrap:
One can quote the Old fashioned way,like when this place was a tad mo civil.

Its called the italics Button

Yelp
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Quoting Tazmanian:
why did 93L did not be come a TD when it was at red for many days or weeks


Shear prevented organized deep convection from forming all around the center.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Definetly something for the East Coast Seaboard and Bermuda to watch.
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This is one damn strange year so far. Not so sure anymore about all the predictions.
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Track? I am more interested in the NHC discussion on the trof and its effects then the first projected track.
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it has a closed low on visible.. and according to SAT estimates 35mph winds.. it is a TD at the least
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Quoting weatherxtreme:
Well what a slow moving season still and the one storm we have appears to be a FISH.


Allow me to educate you. Are you willing to listen? I doubt it, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. If you're still ignorant after this, then it's likely intentional.

I don't know why I'm saying this, because the ignorant will continue reveling happily in their ignorance (ignorance is bliss, as they say), but I decided to look at various years in which a La Nina was present following an El Nino event the previous year.

Near as I can tell, the two closest analogs so far are 1998 and 1988. I'm not going to bother reiterating what happened in the former, since most of you are probably well aware of it at this point.

I will however, state what happened in 1988. The season did not begin until August 5, when the tropical depression that would ultimately spawn Alberto formed off the southeast coast from a trough split. Before that, there was one tropical depression that formed in May and persisted into early June. Aside from that, nothing at all occurred until August. And even after Alberto, conditions obviously weren't very ripe for widespread development in the basin, evidenced by Beryl being pathetic and weak, as well as a handful of unnamed tropical depressions that followed it.

Then there was Chris, which remained a tropical depression almost throughout its entire lifetime, despite forming well to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Next was Debby, which did not become a hurricane until September 2, which I believe is the latest formation date for the first hurricane. We had two more weak systems follow Debby (Ernesto and Tropical Depression Ten), and then came Florence and Gilbert, the latter of which was the most powerful hurricane in the basin until Wilma surpassed it in 2005.

After Florence, however, the dam broke, and the season ended up producing 12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, the most major hurricanes since 1969. In addition to Gilbert, there was Helene, a Category 4 that recurved harmlessly out to sea, and Joan, another Category 4 that was a rare October Cape Verde hurricane, and also one that took an unusually southerly path, affecting the Windward Islands, South, and Central America.

Hopefully this is some food for thought for those still ignorantly claiming this season is a bust (and yes, insofar as the preseason forecasts are concerned, it has been a bust, but it will still be very much active).
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think TD 6 wont be TD 6 for too long i think its going under rapid intensification


going from 30% to 100% in 8hrs is certainly fast strenghening
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848. IKE
Quoting Ryuujin:


StormW for one. Mississippi as well. I'm just stating my opinion, is all. Sorry to come off a bit abrasive myself Ike.


StormW has been on here throughout today saying it's going west. It's not going west according to the NHC...it's going WNW and the latest coordinates verify that. I'm not sure from him...why it was ever so important for it to be going west anyway if he thought it was going to recurve. That's more important then whether it's moving due west right now.

I'm wrong more than I'm right. I said the C storm by July 15th and the D storm by July 20th. I'm an amateur.

Mississippi? What have I said to him?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MississippiWx:
Kind of funny how the NHC wasted no time declaring the EPAC system a TD. If anything is close to land, it gets declared.

Anyway, I'm out for now. Gonna go watch the Braves beat the Cubs!
Yeah baby...Go Braves!!!
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why did 93L did not be come a TD when it was at red for many days or weeks
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845. xcool
Tazmanian .i agree
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Quoting NASA101:


Neither NHC nor NAVY site reports TD-6 so please quote your sources, thanks!!!
Yes they want to keep secret makes them look more important.
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Destin, I can't quote you for some reason, but no I don't think that is. And perhaps I just need to read the boards some more.

If I hurt your feelings IKE, then I'm sorry. I didn't want to do that. I just felt like you were pulling a "bigger older brother" moment on some of the members from time to time.
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While we are waiting for the 5pm update---anyone want to guess who upgraded it?
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Quoting weatherxtreme:
Well what a slow moving season still and the one storm we have appears to be a FISH.


Which is irrelevant. Eliminate the ignorance. It doesn't have to affect land in order for it to be considered an active season.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
806. NASA101 8:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

from the ATCF site which is what the NHC uses to track invests

AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD

invest_RENUMBER_al952010_al062010.ren


Right...but can you post the link to the relevant ATCF page?
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i think TD 6 wont be TD 6 for too long i think its going under rapid intensification
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838. xcool
imo .move to west
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insider info....we have TD 6
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I lost my breath lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.