95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Sure! Thank You. I really enjoy the site and the blog as I do learn a lot here! I guess I get a little impatient each year with waiting for the season to ramp up.
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TD6's exhibiting good spiral banding and organization for peak DMIN.

Surprised it organized so quickly.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Link

Scroll down to the "invest_RENUMBER" files and you'll see the renumbering for 95L to 06L. Also if you scroll down further past those RENUMBER files and click on "invest_al952010.invest" you'll see the last line says:

AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,




how evere i think the nhc will ues 30kt then 25kt
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933. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST August 22 2010
===============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46566
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Don't jump the gun



ok
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Link

Scroll down to the "invest_RENUMBER" files and you'll see the renumbering for 95L to 06L. Also if you scroll down further past those RENUMBER files and click on "invest_al952010.invest" you'll see the last line says:

AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting centex:
So your saying we have some inside info before posted?
Yea those people read this blog for there info and call Taz to see if they are right....

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Quoting Patrap:
Someone be sure to send a wu mail to the Depression,,so it knows as well.

Anal retentive day maybe?


lol
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Quoting leo305:
I guess PR isnt a state because they want to keep it at 50

Obama said there were 57 states.
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Quoting Ryuujin:


We do have it, a Tropical Met I follow on Twitter just posted that.




yes we do we do it have TD 6
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Quoting Patrap:
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,.......


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



I dont like BammS
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this storm is heading right for Bermuda


Don't jump the gun
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting xcool:
100% td6


We do have it, a Tropical Met I follow on Twitter just posted that.
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Quiet.
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Quoting weatherxtreme:


Thanks for the info. I am long time lurker, haven't posted much here.It does seem to be a strange season this year though.


Maybe I shouldn't have used such harsh wording. Will you accept my apologies? I'm just so tired of being patient with everybody when it seems most aren't willing to learn.

Again, I'm sorry, and I'll try and not jump the gun in the future. I suppose I was "generalizing", one could say.
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this storm is heading right for Bermuda
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Someone be sure to send a wu mail to the Depression,,so it knows as well.

Anal retentive day maybe?
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919. xcool
100% td6
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,.......


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Quoting centex:
So your saying we have some inside info before posted?


Yes we do. And someone did post the link to that too. See post 891.
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Quoting centex:
So your saying we have some inside info before posted?



no we have TD 6 turst me
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Wow, I fall asleep and I miss TD6's declaration.
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a hurriacne watch may be needed for Bermuda at some point of time
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Quoting Tazmanian:



it not even out yet
So your saying we have some inside info before posted?
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996

WHXX01 KWBC 211954

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1954 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062010) 20100821 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100821 1800 100822 0600 100822 1800 100823 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.8N 31.8W 11.1N 32.5W 12.0N 33.3W 13.7N 35.0W

BAMD 10.8N 31.8W 10.9N 33.5W 10.9N 35.1W 11.0N 36.8W

BAMM 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 32.8W 12.0N 34.0W 13.1N 35.8W

LBAR 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 33.8W 11.9N 36.7W 12.4N 39.9W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100823 1800 100824 1800 100825 1800 100826 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.9N 38.2W 20.2N 46.6W 21.7N 53.8W 21.1N 56.6W

BAMD 11.6N 38.5W 14.3N 42.4W 19.5N 46.3W 25.7N 47.7W

BAMM 15.0N 38.5W 19.4N 45.7W 22.4N 52.0W 23.1N 55.0W

LBAR 13.2N 43.6W 14.2N 50.2W 15.8N 53.6W 25.2N 54.4W

SHIP 63KTS 80KTS 84KTS 86KTS

DSHP 63KTS 80KTS 84KTS 86KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Based on the intensity models 06L should become a category 1 hurricane in about 72 hours so the first forecast cone will probably make 06L a hurricane towards the 3-5 day period.
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I see the season ramping up nonstop from Sept.10th through Thanksgiving.
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Quoting centex:
I noticed no one posted link to TD special statement. Go figure?



it not even out yet
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06L/TD/XX
MARK
11.13N/31.88W
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Quoting centex:
I noticed no one posted link to TD special statement. Go figure?


there isnt one yet, the 5pm advisory will be out soon

relax this isn't some sort of government conspiracy
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting KoritheMan:


Allow me to educate you. Are you willing to listen? I doubt it, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. If you're still ignorant after this, then it's likely intentional.

I don't know why I'm saying this, because the ignorant will continue reveling happily in their ignorance (ignorance is bliss, as they say), but I decided to look at various years in which a La Nina was present following an El Nino event the previous year.

Near as I can tell, the two closest analogs so far are 1998 and 1988. I'm not going to bother reiterating what happened in the former, since most of you are probably well aware of it at this point.

I will however, state what happened in 1988. The season did not begin until August 5, when the tropical depression that would ultimately spawn Alberto formed off the southeast coast from a trough split. Before that, there was one tropical depression that formed in May and persisted into early June. Aside from that, nothing at all occurred until August. And even after Alberto, conditions obviously weren't very ripe for widespread development in the basin, evidenced by Beryl being pathetic and weak, as well as a handful of unnamed tropical depressions that followed it.

Then there was Chris, which remained a tropical depression almost throughout its entire lifetime, despite forming well to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Next was Debby, which did not become a hurricane until September 2, which I believe is the latest formation date for the first hurricane. We had two more weak systems follow Debby (Ernesto and Tropical Depression Ten), and then came Florence and Gilbert, the latter of which was the most powerful hurricane in the basin until Wilma surpassed it in 2005.

After Florence, however, the dam broke, and the season ended up producing 12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, the most major hurricanes since 1969. In addition to Gilbert, there was Helene, a Category 4 that recurved harmlessly out to sea, and Joan, another Category 4 that was a rare October Cape Verde hurricane, and also one that took an unusually southerly path, affecting the Windward Islands, South, and Central America.

Hopefully this is some food for thought for those still ignorantly claiming this season is a bust (and yes, insofar as the preseason forecasts are concerned, it has been a bust, but it will still be very much active).


Thanks for the info. I am long time lurker, haven't posted much here.It does seem to be a strange season this year though.
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Does 10.7N/32W sound about right for COC of 95L?
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I noticed no one posted link to TD special statement. Go figure?
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The visible floater on TD6 looks to be going W, with maybe a hint of N to it. Maybe!!
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900. xcool
thanks mrs robbb
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Vero1:


looks further south and west than the model consensus
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It bears reposting too, also there are countless examples of La Nina seasons starting late and having most of the storms form after this date.

+500 for that post


Finally, someone gets it.

+500 for this post.
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Quoting centex:
Why all the secrets? Come on give it up.


What secrets? This is how it always works

the atcf site is used by NOAA to track invests and the system is always upgraded there before it is on the NHC page
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
I guess PR isnt a state because they want to keep it at 50
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895. Vero1
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks west to me.


It is moving west, just as the latest and the last dozen or so gfs model runs predicted.
At 50 e or so, it should start heading wnw, nnw then north. Per the gfs of course.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Because this bears repeating...

I don't know why I'm saying this, because the ignorant will continue reveling happily in their ignorance (ignorance is bliss, as they say), but I decided to look at various years in which a La Nina was present following an El Nino event the previous year.

Near as I can tell, the two closest analogs so far are 1998 and 1988. I'm not going to bother reiterating what happened in the former, since most of you are probably well aware of it at this point.

I will however, state what happened in 1988. The season did not begin until August 5, when the tropical depression that would ultimately spawn Alberto formed off the southeast coast from a trough split. Before that, there was one tropical depression that formed in May and persisted into early June. Aside from that, nothing at all occurred until August. And even after Alberto, conditions obviously weren't very ripe for widespread development in the basin, evidenced by Beryl being pathetic and weak, as well as a handful of unnamed tropical depressions that followed it.

Then there was Chris, which remained a tropical depression almost throughout its entire lifetime, despite forming well to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Next was Debby, which did not become a hurricane until September 2, which I believe is the latest formation date for the first hurricane. We had two more weak systems follow Debby (Ernesto and Tropical Depression Ten), and then came Florence and Gilbert, the latter of which was the most powerful hurricane in the basin until Wilma surpassed it in 2005.

After Florence, however, the dam broke, and the season ended up producing 12 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, the most major hurricanes since 1969. In addition to Gilbert, there was Helene, a Category 4 that recurved harmlessly out to sea, and Joan, another Category 4 that was a rare October Cape Verde hurricane, and also one that took an unusually southerly path, affecting the Windward Islands, South, and Central America.

Hopefully this is some food for thought for those still ignorantly claiming this season is a bust (and yes, insofar as the preseason forecasts are concerned, it has been a bust, but it will still be very much active).
+1
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892. JLPR2
Quoting DestinJeff:


United States of America and CONUS in this context are synonymous.

PR and such are not states.


Nope, since CONUS refers to the continental US and Hawaii is a state that isn't on the continent so that throws your idea out the window.

The USA is its states and its territories.
Now if you say, continental USA then yes.

Sorry for the late reply, went to my backyard to find my daisies dead. :@
Damn you sun! XD
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Right...but can you post the link to the relevant ATCF page?


Link

The ATCF is the source that all of the various websites and the Navy use for systems.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Which is irrelevant. Eliminate the ignorance. It doesn't have to affect land in order for it to be considered an active season.


True, very True!
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we may be looking at a 150mph hurricane by this time sunday night
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Quoting Goaskalice:

OH NO! You have been saying that right from the start. How long do you recon we have until we get blown away?



sorry no recon in tell 50W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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