95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Sat 21 Aug 2010 20:00:02Z
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
06L.SIX

NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere


Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems
Tropical Depression 09E.NINE
Tropical Depression 08E

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

06L.SIX
East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53846
00
WTPZ44 KNHC 212038
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MULTIPLE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED AT THIS TIME...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...AS THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF
ALMOST 30C. BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BE PRIMARY DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH
THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
CENTER WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL IN THE
SHORT TERM AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE
MOVING ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING
WITH A SECOND VORTEX DURING THIS TIME THAT NONE OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOWS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...EXCLUDING THE GFS. THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE WEAK INITIAL STEERING
PATTERN AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON FLOW AND LAND.

GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.9N 93.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.9N 93.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 13.8N 94.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.7N 95.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 13.7N 96.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 14.0N 98.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 103.5W 65 KT




000
WTNT41 KNHC 212031
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS....THOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A LONG
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 25 KT...WHICH
AGREES WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB OF T1.5...25
KT...AND A 25 KT ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING.

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS...AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK
SYSTEM WITH ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE
WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT



both storms are forcast too be come name storms in 12hrs
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Chief Met David Thomas of Citrus Springs CA says this will be a Tropical Storm by 10pm tonight
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982. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP082010
21:00 PM UTC August 21 2010
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression EIGHT (1005 hPa) located at 20.7N 111.9W or 175 NM southwest of southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 20.9N 113.8W - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
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Lets start a Tropic chat about the latest and greatest TD6!
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NHC issuing advisories on TD SIX, TD EIGHT-E and TD NINE-E
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Quoting Tazmanian:




if there no name storms they dont do advisories


is this a outlook for the next 48hrs


Yes thanks. Three outlook/advisories in a row.
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Oh, how close does it have to get for them to send a HH out there to investigate?
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975. xcool
TROPICAL STORM BY 8 HRS JMO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
It's very weird how it went from 30% right to 60% to TD6, all like that 3 advisories in a row.




if there no name storms they dont do advisories


is this a outlook for the next 48hrs
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All this without StormW! jajaja
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THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD 9E


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
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968. xcool
BIG Question NOW ,WHERE IS TD6 GOING .YES MODELS CALL FOR A FISH STORM .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
It's very weird how it went from 30% right to 60% to TD6, all like that 3 advisories in a row.
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The current 26°C isotherm depth chart, showing hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean with 26°C or warmer water down to between 250' (green) and 325' (yellow) below the surface, while in the Caribbean, 26°C water extends down to 500' or so.

Come and get it!

Source

The current Sea Surface Temperature (SST) map. Most of the non-land area in this image is capable of sustaining tropical cyclones.

Come and get it!

Source

The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the rapidly-growing red and pink areas in the Caribbean and along the north coast of Cuba have a pretty remarkable TCHP of between 110 and 140 kJ/cm2. (Scientifically-speaking, 140 kJ/cm2 is a lot.)

Come and get it!

Source

Note 1: From Dr. Jeff Masters: "When using the TCHP map, TCHP is not really a good measurement in water that is shallow (less than 50 meters or so). Because TCHP is a function of volume and depth of warm water, TCHP will never appear to be high around coastlines/ocean shelves that are shallow. Remember Charley of 2004 strengthened significantly just offshore of SW FL. [That is,] in a region of low TCHP."

Note 2: most of the Gulf generally sees its maximum SSTs this month, while the northern half of the Caribbean tops out in September. The southern Caribbean and parts of the eastern Atlantic max out in October. (Link)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
NHC predicting TD6 will make a run at major hurricane status.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
Very impressive. They're thinking TS tonight and a hurricane in 2 or 3 days.
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PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
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TD 6 is going to explode into a major hurricane !!!!! hopefully it will be a fish storm but no one on here can say it will be,the models have not been doing well this season
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Quoting Tazmanian:



its out now
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Look at the NHC site, its already up.


Thanks I'm slow. =)
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Is this a possible year like 1998 all over again?
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What if the 2 troughs miss the storm altogether, then it could change the track. Long range models are prone to some sort of error. But in any case, we should know something by a week from now.
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 212030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST.
THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...AND A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I see we have TD6, so T minus 28 minutes until we get the update from the NHC.

27....



its out now
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I see we have TD6, so T minus 28 minutes until we get the update from the NHC.

27....


Oh, it's already out. Jajaja, I'm slow.
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Keeping a good eye on the Intensity Timeline is a good way to see how they expect the system to Ramp up or down thru time.

Thats why I ALWAYS post it with the ATCF Runs.

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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I see we have TD6, so T minus 28 minutes until we get the update from the NHC.

27....


Look at the NHC site, its already up.
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950. IKE
Great news...the islands look safe....for now...

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Quoting Tazmanian:




yes we do we do it have TD 6
looks like a bermuda problem as you have been stating for days but i still have a feeling the ridge might quickly build back before it fully recurves
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this storm is heading right for Bermuda


Time to start filling the bathtub !!!!!
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I see we have TD6, so T minus 28 minutes until we get the update from the NHC.

27....
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NHC predicting TD6 will make a run at major hurricane status.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
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I do have a question for the blog...

And this is a little ahead of the gun. Regardless where this goes...but do you guys think that the sheer size of nu-TD6 will make it more difficult to maintain a Major status once/if it gets there, or will the abnormally high SSTs actually help it along? I'm just curious on peoples opinions on that.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




how evere i think the nhc will ues 30kt then 25kt


They might, the ATCF tcweb folder is preliminary data. In fact right before they renumbered it, the last line put it at 30 kts, but they have since changed it back to 25 knots.
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Quoting Patrap:
Someone be sure to send a wu mail to the Depression,,so it knows as well.

Anal retentive day maybe?
LMAO!!Good model concensus on the Dynamic models btw.
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TD 6 on the nhc site



ouch


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...AND A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 212030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...AND A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


What secrets? This is how it always works

the atcf site is used by NOAA to track invests and the system is always upgraded there before it is on the NHC page
Or the navy page. I checked the link posted by NRT and found this, book marked it for future use.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al952010_al062010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008211952
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL062010
AL, 06, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082012, , BEST, 0, 110N, 260W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082018, , BEST, 0, 104N, 290W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 296W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082106, , BEST, 0, 105N, 303W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082112, , BEST, 0, 106N, 310W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

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well looks like we have TD 6 , looking at the models they still are unclear if its going to fully recurve out to sea but looks like it
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Sure! Thank You. I really enjoy the site and the blog as I do learn a lot here! I guess I get a little impatient each year with waiting for the season to ramp up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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