95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Well I understand disagreement with the ways that it may or may-not be moving. I'm simply saying that every post I've seen of yours in the contrary is very self-serving and self-assured to the point of banality. You seem to get off on making sure other people are wrong and then sticking their faces in it. I /hope/ it goes out to see. I want it too, but I'm not naive enough to believe that any computer model no matter how extensive OR well planned and plotted will have control on exactly what weather will do.

That's why it's called Forecasting and Predicting, not Telling. It's the same adage with fishing, ironically enough.

If we knew it 100% of the time, it would simply be called 'catching'



Very astute observations. I agree 100%. The word "smugcaster" comes to mind.
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1034. xcool
NO 96L .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
this was 95L then lol navy got ahead of them selves
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Quoting crashingwaves:
What if it doesn't curve? Then Houston we got a problem.


If it doesn't curve it will hit Flalmslatex. It may even be written in stone...
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There is no 96L.
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1030. P451
I think it is quite obvious we will be seeing our first Major Hurricane of the year now from TD6.
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guys there is a CLITCH
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
1028. will45
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Yes. I think they have a base in St. Kitts.


ST Croix im thinking
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Quoting btwntx08:
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
96L.INVEST
06L.SIX

East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
??



see my newets post
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
1026. xcool
OG
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting crashingwaves:
What if it doesn't curve? Then Houston we got a problem.


More like East coast we have a problem..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
96L.INVEST
06L.SIX

East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
??
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Bermuda could be threatened yet again by TD6 (Hurricane Danielle by then)...Hello 2010!
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Quoting btwntx08:

no it was 95L...according to keepers post theres a 96L?



there is NO 96L


watch TD 6






96L






now what do you see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Quoting will45:


they will fly from the islands probably


Yes. I think they have a base in St. Kitts.
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What if it doesn't curve? Then Houston we got a problem.
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1019. will45
Quoting Ryuujin:


That's actually pretty impressive. I wouldn't, for one, have to go out that far for fear of running out o-gas. Thas a biiiig ocean out there.


they will fly from the islands probably
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Quoting Tazmanian:




09 look at my post 985 and tell me what you think
Yeah its important to see what the satellite agencies say T-number wise. Unless they get some proof of 40mph winds or T-numbers of 2.5 and above we will likely stay with a TD until then. I do think though, that we will have Danielle in less than 12 hours.
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Quoting btwntx08:
omg 96L where


Over there , look !!!!
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Quoting btwntx08:

no it was 95L...according to keepers post theres a 96L?




there is no 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Quoting Tazmanian:



96L is TD 6 lol

no it was 95L...according to keepers post theres a 96L?
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Quoting btwntx08:
im taking the left side of the cone for now

me to
but i have been wrong at least once before.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
NHC looks to be biting on the curve later in the period.


Yes they say in their discussion that they are close to but to the left of the model consensus.
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1010. Ryuujin
Quoting will45:


they can go out to 50W this year


That's actually pretty impressive. I wouldn't, for one, have to go out that far for fear of running out o-gas. Thas a biiiig ocean out there.
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1008. Patrap
Maybe the GRIP Mission and the Drone will investigate TD-6
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1007. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP092010
21:00 PM UTC August 21 2010
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression NINE (1007 hPa) located at 13.9N 93.2W or 180 NM southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 13.8N 94.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Mexico coast from Salina Cruz westward to Lagunas de Chacahua
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thats mass up all
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
1005. xcool
HA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting PELLSPROG:


We're all doomed we're all gonna die !!!!!!!



Lol.
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Quoting btwntx08:
omg 96L where



96L is TD 6 lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
omg 96L where
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1000. will45
Quoting Ryuujin:
Oh, how close does it have to get for them to send a HH out there to investigate?


they can go out to 50W this year
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I know the NHC states it's moving wnw, I usually tend to agree. . . but it seems on visual sat. that it is moving due west. I'll looking at again later tonight and see. I'm sure everyone will be waiting on the edge of their seats for my special report on it's movement.
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Y para todos nuestros amigos...

ENLACE
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Quoting Tazmanian:
00
WTPZ44 KNHC 212038
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MULTIPLE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED AT THIS TIME...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...AS THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF
ALMOST 30C. BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BE PRIMARY DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH
THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
CENTER WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL IN THE
SHORT TERM AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE
MOVING ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING
WITH A SECOND VORTEX DURING THIS TIME THAT NONE OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOWS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...EXCLUDING THE GFS. THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE WEAK INITIAL STEERING
PATTERN AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON FLOW AND LAND.

GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.9N 93.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.9N 93.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 13.8N 94.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.7N 95.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 13.7N 96.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 14.0N 98.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 103.5W 65 KT




000
WTNT41 KNHC 212031
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS....THOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A LONG
CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 25 KT...WHICH
AGREES WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB OF T1.5...25
KT...AND A 25 KT ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING.

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS...AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK
SYSTEM WITH ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE
WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT



both storms are forcast too be come name storms in 12hrs


also both storms are expected/forecasted to become hurricanes.
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Oh td6 is here! Oops better season the crow I've gotten to eat again. Oh boy...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And so the Cape Verde season starts!

yep
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2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
96L.INVEST
06L.SIX

East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere




ANOTHER CLITCH
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
All this without StormW! jajaja


Is jajaja like hahaha??
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And so the Cape Verde season starts!




09 look at my post 985 and tell me what you think
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Go to the pool for an hour and come back to a new TD...

Now the blog will have updates every 6 hours to argue over for the next week. Yipee!


But in all seriousness, the ECMWF is out to lunch this afternoon. Up to yesterday it had a steadily strengthening storm becoming a hurricane by monday or tuesday, now it waits forever until it moves well north to strengthen it. Weird out of the best model.

I like the LBAR track. I know that it's a weak actual model, but I think almost due west then a stall and almost due north for a while slowly. After that who knows.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.


We're all doomed we're all gonna die !!!!!!!
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And so the Cape Verde season starts!
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Sat 21 Aug 2010 20:00:02Z
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
06L.SIX

NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere


Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems
Tropical Depression 09E.NINE
Tropical Depression 08E

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

06L.SIX
East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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