95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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1086. will45
1080. 954FtLCane 5:03 PM EDT on August 21, 2010

Lay off of Taz if you want to stay around here long
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1080. 954FtLCane 2:03 PM PDT on August 21, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
could we on this drop this and this move on too TD 6 plz i find this vary point less


Please.. and I ask... take a class....and I understand your difficulties.... learn to frickin write!!!



poof





keep it up you guys any one more like too joine him or would you guy want too drop this and move on too the weather



wish one is it
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Hey a bunch of the irregulars are showing up!


no wonder they are a in bad mood
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367
NHC says movement is wnw but i see west whats going on?
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1082. JLPR2
Quoting DestinJeff:
Hey a bunch of the irregulars are showing up!


TD 6 is here, I wonder if having a tropical system is actually good for the blog, or the other way around. :|
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Quoting btwntx08:

he was making a point with me hes nobody to be poofed at it was just a disagreement




its all right
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what evere


071. Caneguy 2:00 PM PDT on August 21, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
could we on this drop this and this move on too TD 6 plz i find this vary point less


And we find your relentless abuse of the English language pointless. *poof*




POOF
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1074. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Better get my Hurricane preparedness kit ready!
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td 6 is really organizing quite quickly... I think a ts by 11.
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1067. SeaMule
look at the RGB loop....definitely a storm by tonight....a hurricane in 24 hours...and movement is not that fast. I see a west movement staring at the RGB. plenty of time. if the thing stays heading our way...we will have a cat 5 on our hands. it is...August...and the SST's can handle it, no problemo
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1066. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4 depression in the world all with the same intensity of 25 knots.


O_O
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**Advisory graphics will be issued at 8:00 pm EDT for Tropical Depression Nine-E
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1063. Patrap
NASAtelevision

From August 15th to September 25th, NASA will begin the GRIP or Genesis and Rapid Intensification Mission to study how hurricanes form and intensify. During the most active period of the hurricane season, numerous NASA satellites and aircraft will help scientists better understand the life cycles of some of Earth's most destructive forces.

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1062. Ryuujin
Quoting JLPR2:


Ha! Thank you I guess, I had never been told that. XD


LAWL. Sorry, but that's just wrong.
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could we on this drop this and this move on too TD 6 plz i find this vary point less
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1060. will45
Taz yes Colin didnt hit any land but i think 3 deaths were attributed to it
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1058. Vero1
Quoting Patrap:


TYVM..should be cool stuff.


The GRIP site is very interesting.

http://grip.nsstc.nasa.gov/index.html
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys there is a CLITCH


What?????? Who said what to who?????
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1056. Caneguy
Quoting Tazmanian:



96L is TD 6 lol


No, 95L is TD6
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1054. aquak9
Quoting Vero1:


DC-8 is available for science flights

WB-57 First day of access to GRIP is on Aug 25


i got a kayak and some spare time..
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Quoting DestinJeff:
NHC won't declare TD until Reed gives the green light.

EDIT: He must be on conf call, or Skype.


LMAO ... so true Jeff!!! Oh well ... I'm sure Reed will say he predicted this a week ago and commence patting himself on the back.
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Quoting Clearwater1:
I know the NHC states it's moving wnw, I usually tend to agree. . . but it seems on visual sat. that it is moving due west. I'll looking at again later tonight and see. I'm sure everyone will be waiting on the edge of their seats for my special report on it's movement.

I agree with you, I would say a flat 270 degrees , 275 at most, give it 12-24 hours and we'll see, for now I have to trust the NHC as they are much more qualified than I am at this tropical forecasting!
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Quoting btwntx08:
taz on ur post the navy accidently put it as 96L when it was 95L then which is now td 6



there is NO 96L turst me there is NO 96L there no storms out there other then TD that we need too have 96L for at this time
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It's looking very healthy.
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1049. Patrap
Quoting Vero1:


DC-8 is available for science flights

WB-57 First day of access to GRIP is on Aug 25


TYVM..should be cool stuff.
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1048. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DestinJeff:
So, as it happens, a watched pot DOES boil!

Stupid old wives' tale.
SILENCE
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Although we have only had 3 storms (soon a 4th) we have had ZERO fish storms. That is every storm has required at least a TS Warning for somebody.

Alex-Mexico
Bonnie- S. FL, LA
Collin- Bermuda
(Danielle-most likely Bermuda, so far.)




Collin nevere made it too Bermuda and nevere made land fall so in evere word collin was a fish
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1046. JLPR2
Quoting Dakster:


JLPR2 is such a cunning linguist...

I thought the next update was at 8pm - although I wouldn't be dissappointed by a special tropical announcement.


Ha! Thank you I guess, I had never been told that. XD
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Written by: wxman57
Professional Meteorologist credentials

"Could easily get a strong Cat 3 out of this, maybe even a Cat 4. NHC is being just a little conservative with the intensity forecast. I do think it might track a bit left of the NHC track at first, but it will very likely stay well NE of the Caribbean and even east of Bermuda. Not a 100% guarantee of recurvature east of 60W, though, maybe 90%. There's the question of timing of the ridge off the East U.S. Coast building eastward. If the storm moves more slowly and the ridge builds east faster, then it could block the recurve."

I agree with his statement right now.
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Just took a look at the 12z EC and it is obviously struggling with how to resolve energy in the NE corner of the overall pressure envelope associated with TD6. This leads to an unrealistic jump north of 5 degrees or so by tomorrow evening. The break in the ridge is also questionable on this run with timing and effect significantly impacted by the initial error the first 36 hours.
The energy in the Gulf is eerily similar to TD5 next week on this run.
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1042. Vero1
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe the GRIP Mission and the Drone will investigate TD-6


DC-8 is available for science flights

WB-57 First day of access to GRIP is on Aug 25

http://grip.nsstc.nasa.gov/schedule/Mission_Calendar_080710rev.pdf
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I'm glad I live more inland, than living along the coast. I think too much emphasis is being put on the troughs that are supposedly to curve this storm out to sea. Like I said in several posts, these storms can miss troughs and cause some problems for those close to the coast. I tend to watch these storms closely until I see a curve out to sea. God help those in the path of this storm, if it should reach major status.
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1040. aquak9
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
It's very weird how it went from 30% right to 60% to TD6, all like that 3 advisories in a row.


ya shoulda been here in '05, hun. We saw that all the time.
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Although we have only had 3 storms (soon a 4th) we have had ZERO fish storms. That is every storm has required at least a TS Warning for somebody.

Alex-Mexico
Bonnie- S. FL, LA
Collin- Bermuda
(Danielle-most likely Bermuda, so far.)
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1037. Patrap
..Breathe
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.