95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1136 - 1086

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

1135. Patrap
Quoting KoritheMan:


That doesn't even make mathematical sense. :|


O YES it does.

LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10/4/2 at this point....I know I'll be wrong anyways
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1133. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm still 13/7/3.


Im still 5' 8"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


I am 34/26/36.


That doesn't even make mathematical sense. :|
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
I still from the Leewards, even PR, Bahamas, S/N Carolina should monitor TD#6 closely, might take an Ike track too , one never knows!



I totaly agree here with you. I'm not saying the models are right or wrong. My take on this is, that the two troughs are supposedly going to steer this storm out to sea. But what if the troughs miss this storm? a lot can happen between now & then. The storm could slow down, change track or just stall. Its only going 9 mph, thats not much speed right now. jmo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm still 13/7/3.


Highly possible still, I personally am down from the 18/8/4 I started the year at.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm at 15/8/5. Call the final number insane if you want, but don't underestimate the vast amount of available heat energy present in the basin this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1125. JLPR2
Meanwhile over Western Africa...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1123. xcool
12/6/4 .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1122. GetReal
Ifcasting will by definition include all maybe if and only if forecast from this point forward....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


NO! POOF FOR YOU!

Come back, one year!

haha... destin I do have to say one thing...U my man always make me frickin laugh!!!!! :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1119. xcool
makes it's way west .not wnw
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im a popular guy to quote, eh? :)

Anyways, TD-6 will make a nice fish storm should be quite fun to watch. btw, my new prediction for this season:

Total systems: 13
Hurricanes: 4
Major Hurricanes: 2

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I still think from the Leewards, even PR, Bahamas, S/N Carolina should monitor TD#6 closely, might take an Ike track too , one never knows!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Sorry y'all I made an inappropriate comment towards taz and I apologize..... I guess me fuze was very small today...my bad...please accept it!!!



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1112. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Caneguy:

And we find your relentless abuse of the English language pointless. *poof*
"From Answeres.com:

(ROI-uhl wee) pronunciation

noun
The first-person plural pronoun used by a king or queen to refer to himself or herself, for example, "We are not amused," a line attributed to Queen Victoria.

Etymology
From Old French roial, from Latin regalis (kingly) + Old English we. The practice of using "we" to refer to oneself is called nosism

As it's often used by newspaper editors, the term is also known as the "editorial we". Mark Twain once said, "Only kings, presidents, editors, and people with tapeworms have the right to use the editorial 'we'."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry y'all I made an inappropriate comment towards taz and I apologize..... I guess me fuze was very small today...my bad...please accept it!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1109. will45
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That proposed change was not accepted. They still are at 55W.

National Hurricane Operations Plan - AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE

5.5.1.3.1. For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Central Pacific areas, the requests can be:

Up to four 6-hourly fixes per day when a storm is within 500 nm of landfall and west of 55ºW in the Atlantic.


ok thanks i read something wrong i guess
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
WOW TD6 NOW

hmm I still expect this ti move further west we need to watch the track as it moves west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
Can we cut the drama please? This is a weather blog after all, not a kindergarten class.


You're giving some of the folks here too much credit, I'm afraid.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrpuertorico:
NHC says movement is wnw but i see west whats going on?


Maybe this storm keeps bouncing back and forth from West to WNW. This could be one reason for it. I'm wondering if the two troughs coming across the Atlantic, will curve this storm out to sea? I just hope people stay on top of the news and not rely on the models curvature until it actually happens. jmo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will45:


they can go out to 50W this year


That proposed change was not accepted. They still are at 55W.

National Hurricane Operations Plan - AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE

5.5.1.3.1. For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Central Pacific areas, the requests can be:

Up to four 6-hourly fixes per day when a storm is within 500 nm of landfall and west of 55ºW in the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
Can we cut the drama please? This is a weather blog after all, not a kindergarten class.



lol that was funny
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1101. will45
1080. 954FtLCane
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.


its already started Keep lol
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Can we cut the drama please? This is a weather blog after all, not a kindergarten class.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1098. Patrap
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,.......


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Maybe follow da lil white/silver line behind da models..it shows the Motion thru time since it was declared...a Invest.

Maybe note dat Lil "secret."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1097. scott39
why are you so concerned about how someone uses the english language? who cares!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
1096. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
looks like it time for the time warp madness takes its toll
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
4 depression in the world all with the same intensity of 25 knots.


O_O

lol Freaky! 0_O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
1080. 954FtLCane 2:03 PM PDT on August 21, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
could we on this drop this and this move on too TD 6 plz i find this vary point less


Please.. and I ask... take a class....and I understand your difficulties.... learn to frickin write!!!



poof





keep it up you guys any one more like too joine him or would you guy want too drop this and move on too the weather



wish one is it
taz JFV has a new code name FIUhurricane01
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1089. xcool
18z gfs come soon
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1088. scott39
Quoting btwntx08:

i know there isnt 96L BUT i said the navy site mistake it by putting 96L instead of 95L the navy site drank a little to much there
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
1087. xcool
mrpuertorico .me too
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1086. will45
1080. 954FtLCane 5:03 PM EDT on August 21, 2010

Lay off of Taz if you want to stay around here long
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

Viewing: 1136 - 1086

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
50 °F
Overcast