95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Looks like the statistical models are clueless.
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To all the regulars (y'all know who you are): Although I'm a longtime lurker, I have come to the conclusion that I will be quietly poofing people that give you guff... I hate it when the blog gets overloaded with newbie smart-butts who get super cheeky with the folks that keep this place interesting day in and day out. So next time I see someone getting mean with the regulars, y'all can count me in on the magic ten it takes to poof.
Too much congestion whenever something's brewing anyway!
XOX
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1183. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting hydrus:
Your numbers are similar to mine. My estimate June 1 was 15/10/5 with 3 cat-5,s. my numbers might sound right either, but I was thinking the same thing. There is a tremendous amount of available energy for these cyclones to feed on. Sea surface temperatures are above normal. In May and June I was using 1969 as one of my analogue years. There were 12 hurricanes and 18 named storms total. There may have a few depressions that year too.


I think this season will be remembered not for the numbers necessarily, but the intensity of the storms that DO form.
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looks like 30L has some mode runs with it



it looks like it


has

GFS

UKMET

ECMWF

and NOGAPS

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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What is causing the due north shift late in the track due to the models?



Its a trick in the models. It sure won't be funny if this storm hits land. I hope that people take this serious, seeing it could be a Major storm next week.
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1176. will45
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What is causing the due north shift late in the track due to the models?


they are seeing a weakness to the north
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1175. hydrus
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm at 15/8/5. Call the final number insane if you want, but don't underestimate the vast amount of available heat energy present in the basin this year.
Your numbers are similar to mine. My estimate June 1 was 15/10/5 with 3 cat-5,s. my numbers might not sound right either, but I was thinking the same thing. There is a tremendous amount of available energy for these cyclones to feed on. Sea surface temperatures are above normal. In May and June I was using 1969 as one of my analogue years. There were 12 hurricanes and 18 named storms total. There may have a few depressions that year too.
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Quoting duajones78413:
Is an Ike track actually a possibility?


Only in ones wildest dreams
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Dakster started it with 1038
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Quoting DestinJeff:


haha.

a$$casting was already taken.

[I KID! I KID! ... it wasn't really taken]
too funny
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1171. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

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What is causing the due north shift late in the track due to the models?
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Lets compare last year to this year so far, not to much of a difference honestly but '10 does appear it will be more active.


2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Total depressions: 4
Total storms: 3 *tie
Hurricanes: 1 *tie
Major Hurricanes: 1

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Total depressions: 6
Total storms: 3 *tie
Hurricanes: 1 *tie
Major Hurricanes: 0
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Quoting duajones78413:
Is an Ike track actually a possibility?
There's a 99.9% chance that it won't happen.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting duajones78413:
Is an Ike track actually a possibility?


Not looking like it
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1165. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh wow

can't get away from the "That is what she said" jokes.
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Quoting duajones78413:
Is an Ike track actually a possibility?


No.
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Is an Ike track actually a possibility?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Synonym: Teddycasting.


I feel so honored, I finally get a form of casting named after me.
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1159. JLPR2
Well I'm off for awhile, my grandma just suggested a round of games.
She will probably kick my ass, specially in dominoes, but eh....
XD LOL!

later!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I am 34/26/36.

or whatever.

LMAO!! Vertically stacked!!!
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Quoting FLdewey:

Only if she's 5'3"


lmao
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1155. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Got an inch on you Patrap ;)


When one getz to the cretaceous part of Life..we shrink some.

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Quoting FLdewey:
That's what she said.


HAHA
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Link

The PREDICT plane is currently in St. Croix.



Monday 23 August:
Possible flight into PGI30, centered on 18.5N, 56W;
or possible flight into PGI31, centered on 15N, 40W.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Meanwhile over Western Africa...



Definately something to watch!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



thanks can you WU e mail all his names
they got deleted for some stupid reason i can only
remember some
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Quoting DestinJeff:


NO! POOF FOR YOU!

Come back, one year!


There was a lot of intelligent conversation going early this afternoon without all the bickering and sillyness going on now. Please grow up, all of you, and go back to talking about the weather. Most of you are pretty knowledgeable and can help a lot of us who are neophytes at this understand what is going to happen with the new TD. Thanks.
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1146. Ryuujin
Quoting JLPR2:
Meanwhile over Western Africa...



Good LORD look at that thing.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
Quoting MrstormX:
Im a popular guy to quote, eh? :)

Anyways, TD-6 will make a nice fish storm should be quite fun to watch. btw, my new prediction for this season:

Total systems: 13
Hurricanes: 4
Major Hurricanes: 2


Perhaps
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this is the one im going with today
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm at 15/8/5. Call the final number insane if you want, but don't underestimate the vast amount of available heat energy present in the basin this year.

Wow! I originally said 19/10/6, now I'm thinking exactly the same numbers 15/8/5 , very close to 1998 , also 2004, though 2004 was el nino, 1998, la nina.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm still 13/7/3.


I'm sticking to my entry in the contest in May, 14/10/5 although my 10 hurricanes will be tough to do, 9 of the next 10 storms would have to be canes.
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1140. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


That doesn't even make mathematical sense. :|


The Atlantic will provide, somehow. XD
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm at 15/8/5. Call the final number insane if you want, but don't underestimate the vast amount of available heat energy present in the basin this year.
I'm a bit higher at 18/10/6. There's plenty of energy in the Atlantic for systems to feed off of if the enviormental conditions are right.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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