95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting xcool:




looks like the mode runs are turning more W
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1235. aquak9
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:
Anyone watching tropical depression Nine-E? the models show it flipping a U-turn into mexican, what's the possibility of it going back into the GOMEX?


wow we are really, really reaching today folks.
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Its great to debate the track with civility , without any personal attacks like many are doing here this evening( refreshing) that's how it should, though I admit there is great model concensus with the dynamic models, lets hope it goes out into the N atlantic without any threat to land, as I personally think this will be a significant hurricane!
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1232. aquak9
Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyone know if the east coast would be impacted, know its too far out but just need an idea.


east coast not gonna be impacted. If it does, Ike gets brownies from me.

Ike's not gonna get no brownies.
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1231. xcool
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1229. xcool
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1227. xcool
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The low-level flow, most likely. BAMS is for shallow systems, which TD6 will not be.
Exactly. By the time that the BAMM shifts westward it will likely be a deep stystem, thus using the BAMD which is for deep systems. The BAMD recurves it out to sea.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1223. hydrus
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think this season will be remembered not for the numbers necessarily, but the intensity of the storms that DO form.
I am sorry I forgot the "not" in my post, but I am glad you understood and responded to it. You posted what I was trying to say..:)
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Quoting Relix:
Models were spot on too after everyone attacking them. =p


you are saying this now?

you are kidding right?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyone know if the east coast would be impacted, know its too far out but just need an idea.


Very very doubtful. About as likely as it retrograding eastward back into Africa.
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well looks like TD 6s fate is all but decided

NEXT!!!


I guess since so many have already decided where this is going to go, why even bother with a discussion?
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1219. xcool
use my favor word I'm not putting much faith in models
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1218. Relix
Models were spot on too after everyone attacking them. =p
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1217. IKE
Quoting will45:
GFS just started Ike and yes they were a lil late


Thanks.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

I agree ,but to be totally honest, I agree models can be used as guidance, but quite frankly i don't put much stock in them, anyway, watch , wait and see , time will tell the tale!


But the models are implemented with data on the large-scale weather pattern. And they're usually quite accurate when they are tightly clustered. Minor deviations in either direction (left or right) can be expected, but nothing significant.
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Anyone know if the east coast would be impacted, know its too far out but just need an idea.
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1214. Relix
After so much talks it still formed and heading WNW. Everyone was saying it would go west then north but it's obvious the movement is WNW and out to sea. Bermuda has to keep an eye on it because it could become a major. At least I am sure with 99% certainty (hey, ya never know!) that the antilles are spared for now.

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Good evening, i see we have TD 6. I left last night to 95L with 40% chance and came back online only to find that a TD has formed. It looks well organized, definitely better than what colin and bonnie looked like when they were first TDs.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just doesn't seem likely. The synoptic set-up would have to change greatly. The only guidence suggesting that possibility is the BAMM suite suggesting a clip westward towards the end of the run, which is possible but unlikely.

I know, I respect your knowledge of weather here greatly!!
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So hot in Houma the rains evaperating before it can get here
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Quoting RichlandStrangler:
I wonder what the BAMS model is seeing that will make it turn back WSW at the end of the run.


maybe a ridge will build back
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Of course nothing is ever 100%. But things can be as close to that as is logically possible. Proof beyond reasonable doubt, as they say. The proof is in the models.

I agree ,but to be totally honest, I agree models can be used as guidance, but quite frankly i don't put much stock in them, anyway, watch , wait and see , time will tell the tale!
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1207. Patrap
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,.......


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Maybe follow da lil white/silver line behind da models..it shows the Motion thru time since it was declared...a Invest.

Maybe note dat Lil "secret."
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Quoting RichlandStrangler:
I wonder what the BAMS model is seeing that will make it turn back WSW at the end of the run.


The low-level flow, most likely. BAMS is for shallow systems, which TD6 will not be.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

WOW! MH09 That's going out on a limb with the % but nothing is 100% as you made clear, but don't be too sure!
Just doesn't seem likely. The synoptic set-up would have to change greatly. The only guidence suggesting that possibility is the BAMM suite suggesting a clip westward towards the end of the run, which is possible but unlikely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1203. will45
GFS just started Ike and yes they were a lil late
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1202. Patrap
GOES-13 Atlantic WV false Color Loop
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TD6 looking to me on sat to be moving SW was at 11.0N 32.1W now at 10.9N 32.2W I will keep on watching this and if it reaches 35W and not on or north of 12-12.5N I will know what to say
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Quoting DestinJeff:


And here I have been looking in the pudding all this time!


Now you know!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the statistical models are clueless.
When aren't they? They most of the time are all over the place (IMO), which is why I prefer the dynamical package 99.9% of the time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting stormpetrol:

WOW! MH09 That's going out on a limb with the % but nothing is 100% as you made clear, but don't be too sure!


Of course nothing is ever 100%. But things can be as close to that as is logically possible. Proof beyond reasonable doubt, as they say. The proof is in the models.
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1189. IKE
18Z GFS running late.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Those models need to learn to straighten up and fly right.

Us neophytes are trying to learn.



This is so true.Lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There's a 99.9% chance that it won't happen.

WOW! MH09 That's going out on a limb with the % but nothing is 100% as you made clear, but don't be too sure!
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Looks like the statistical models are clueless.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.