95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormpetrol:
To be honest the last few loops it appears that TD#6 has wobbled WSW? thoughts?

Never base track on IR Sat Loops
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CO 1st snow?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 PM MDT SAT AUG 21 2010


.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

...TASTE OF FALL ON TUESDAY...

NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG LATE SUMMER COLD FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY...AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE IN THE
EXTENDED FCST. GFS TIMING IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE FRONT
REACHING THE PALMER DVD MID DAY MONDAY...AND THE BULK OF FRONTAL AND
POST-FRONTAL QPF GENERATED MON NIGHT. NAM IS A TAD SLOWER...WITH THE
FRONT ARRIVING OVR OUR NRN ZONES LATE MON AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE QPF HITTING THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM TIMING IN THE GRIDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STABLE AND
SATURATED CONDITIONS ON TUE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE. CONVECTIVE QPF OVR THE AREA LOOKS OVERDONE...THOUGH COULD
SEE SOME EMBEDDED TS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONT. THINK THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE STRATIFORM ON TUE...WHICH COULD BE A PRETTY
GLOOMY AND COOL DAY. HAVE LIBERALLY TRIMMED BACK MAX TEMPS ON
TUE...WHEN LOW LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE 60S AT BEST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW...COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL SHWRS OVR
THE PEAKS LATE MON...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 13K FEET BY
TUE MORNING. TYPICAL LATE AUG EVENT FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sleeps with the fish.....the possible trough split in the GOM is still the thing to watch out for. The slower the season the more wary I am of home grown spin-ups.
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18Z GFS turns the wave about to come off of Africa into Earl:

72 hours:
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1281. Patrap
Mike's Weather Page
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Quoting Twinkster:
Even though everything is setting up for this to recurve please take a minute to think of past storms where the first track brought it out to sea.

Models can change. I will give an example not saying this will verify but showing just how quickly models can change. Hurricane Frances 2004

first here is track and discussion for TD 6



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS
. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

now here Hurricane Frances 2004



THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS
STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY
THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS
INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.



we all kknow what happened with frances. Things can change in the long run


stop with this thing called logic, it has not business in this room obviously lol
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What is causing the due north shift late in the track due to the models?

I think it has to do with the huge troughs to its north, at that point of the models run
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The 18z GFS develops a tropical cyclone off of Africa starting at 42 hours. By 72 hours it's a TS. I believe that it is PGI34L's pouch.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1277. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1276. Patrap
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Quoting CaribBoy:
based on the latest IR loops, TD6 isnt moving WNW.

you cannot base ANYTHING of of track or circulation from IR loops except convection unless the storm is so organized it has an eye.
convection moves all over the place around the storm and it can look like the storm is moving east as it's busy wrapping around the LLC
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1274. aquak9
donna you don't post much but you sure raise my eyebrows every time you do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even though everything is setting up for this to recurve please take a minute to think of past storms where the first track brought it out to sea.

Models can change. I will give an example not saying this will verify but showing just how quickly models can change. Hurricane Frances 2004

first here is track and discussion for TD 6



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS
. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

now here Hurricane Frances 2004



THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS
STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY
THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS
INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.



we all kknow what happened with frances. Things can change in the long run
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 18z GFS may be trying to develop a system off of Africa around 42 hours.
looks like the monster wave over west africa
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Africa is regurgitating another wave. Looks like it needs to be watched.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
i caution everyone with the models, I still think the models will shift more to the left all will be dependent on the strengh of the ridge and how deep the trough will be and how far south will TD 6 be when the trough approaches
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Quoting FLdewey:
Speaking of depression... I took a drive through Pennsylvania coal country today.

Yeeesh.

Anyone grow up in the coal region of PA?


I did, as a matter of fact...Scranton, Pennsylvania. PA is depressing, and the winters suck. That's one of the reasons I moved south.
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To be honest the last few loops it appears that TD#6 has wobbled WSW? thoughts?
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1263. Patrap
GOES-13 WV Loop TD6
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Quoting stormhank:
evening......Just a quick ??? for anyone,,its pretty obvious whats soon to be Danielle will most likely turn out to sea...My question being will this pattern hold thru next month and possibly turn all storms out?? Or is that just wishful thinking? Thanks for any input!!!

The GFS has troughs and only weak ridges for the next 2 weeks so Yes to your question for that long.
After that my GUESS is yes it will hold only because we had so few Lows come off the coast all summer and everything has a tendency to average out.
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1260. will45
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Can someone help me , for some reason I'm not able to quote anyone. I can post but not quote. Any assistance would be helpful.


try leaving blog and then open it again
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ummm, yeah...we most likely have a TD right now. Gotta go with the NHC's persistence thing though:

Link

It already is.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1256. xcool




you can see better
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1255. Patrap
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Can someone help me , for some reason I'm not able to quote anyone. I can post but not quote. Any assistance would be helpful.


Just use the post number or Italicize the Post.


Like it used to be .

When da Blog was young and innocent..

Well,when it was young.
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1254. smuldy
Quoting Tazmanian:




looks like the mode runs are turning more W
even if they do with the rapid intensification that took place while i napped this thing may very well get strong enough fast enough to feel the poleward pull before 50w and pile egg on my face; looked pitiful this morning, cant believe it already gained a closed coc
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The 18z GFS may be trying to develop a system off of Africa around 42 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1252. aquak9
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Can someone help me , for some reason I'm not able to quote anyone. I can post but not quote. Any assistance would be helpful.


maybe log completely outta WU, and log back on? Or just copy and paste the quote if you have to. Or clear out your cookies.
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Quoting btwntx08:
quit getting into the fish wagon u all sound like jason


When the models are this heavily agreed, it's hard not to be.

Bermuda may still be impacted though, in which case it's officially not a fish.
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Quoting HurricaneIsabel:
Anyone watching tropical depression Nine-E? the models show it flipping a U-turn into mexican, what's the possibility of it going back into the GOMEX?


Only the operational GFS, and the BAMs based on it are showing that. NHC is not buying it as shown by their track.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
well looks like TD 6s fate is all but decided

NEXT!!!


I guess since so many have already decided where this is going to go, why even bother with a discussion?


I'd like to have a civilized discussion about the system. That's how I learn, and that's why I'm here. If you're bored, feel free to leave.
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1245. xcool
Tazmanian .yea
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
look people TD 6 will continue to follow the low level steering untill it reaches 999-990mb TS or Hurricane SO I see a west track untill it does so and I don't think it is in too much of a hurry to do so
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1243. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:


I am 34/26/36.

or whatever.
Thats looking pretty good-- Got a picture?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting aquak9:


wow we are really, really reaching today folks.


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
evening......Just a quick ??? for anyone,,its pretty obvious whats soon to be Danielle will most likely turn out to sea...My question being will this pattern hold thru next month and possibly turn all storms out?? Or is that just wishful thinking? Thanks for any input!!!
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based on the latest IR loops, TD6 isnt moving WNW.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
That's only out to 120 hrs. If you check out the Tropical Atlantic site and look beyond 120 hrs BAMS & BAMM go north to northeast.
Oh ok. The BAMD suite will likely be most useful after 120 hours and it shows a recurvature.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting xcool:




looks like the mode runs are turning more W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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