95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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1336. xcool
btwntx08 .yep
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1334. Ryuujin
And I don't buy GFS and it's over-compensating on trof building. It always wants to make the trofs WAY too strong, so.. I'd adopt a more wait and see approach. (And don't many of the other models rely on GFSes base data for trofs/ridges, etc?)
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We have the possibility of two or more systems to form besides TD #6 coming this week

PGI34L - 60%

Trof-split - 40%
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32811
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good evening, kman. Good to see you.


Good evening to you too. Just stepped off the plane and thought I would check in. Interesting evening on tap.
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1331. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting kmanislander:
Well, well, well

TD six today as I expected from all the way back on Thursday. I was convinced from this morning that it was no way this system would wait for Monday to be designated.

Looking good too.



yes things moving along nicly will be a hurricane within 36 hrs a major within 72
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1329. scott39
How many hours does the NHC have to see a different direction in motion, before they change the direction on a TC?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1328. Levi32
Guys, I want you all to look at this image closely. The 12z ECMWF operational was crud and completely wrong on how early the recurve is. It will get farther west than that but look at the Euro ensemble mean. This is the 500mb ensemble mean Day 10....guess what that trough and purple colors represent off the SE US coast. They represent TD 6. The ensemble mean this morning has the storm coming west of Bermuda, and really too close to comfort for the United States.

The pattern is progressive so the storm would have to miss 2 troughs to make it there, but the troughs are riding too far north to recurve it as early as the operational run had it. The pattern favors ridging building over the northwest Atlantic meaning the troughs come and go just like that, without digging in much. A storm could have a chance to sneak underneath them and get caught beneath the ridging.

My point? Models have a poleward bias as always, and although this is still more likely to recurve out to sea than make it all the way to the US, we should still watch it and Bermuda especially cannot rest easy. Seriously.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
HEY stormpetrol STOP STEELING MY WORD LOL

anyway yes Stormpetrol I sse it moving WSW I was thing more of SW but yes

Or my eyes are deceiving me lol!!!
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1326. wxhatt
The NAM sort of concurs.

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Quoting kmanislander:
Well, well, well

TD six today as I expected from all the way back on Thursday. I was convinced from this morning that it was no way this system would wait for Monday to be designated.

Looking good too.



Good evening, kman. Good to see you.
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WWW.FISHSTORM.COM
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Quoting DestinJeff:
It should be mentioned that at no point did the NHC have an advisory that recurved Frances in 2004.


it should be mentioned that you look at my post that shows the first track of hurricane frances being near identical to TD 6 which people are already saying is a fish
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962
Quoting FLdewey:

Since the tropics are slow hopefully getting some sun.
slow when we have a TD he is probably tied up but hope to hear from him very soon
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1321. Ryuujin
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Definitely looks to be moving WNW to me in this loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_flo ater_1


Not to me, it just seems the passover from day/night is causing it to appear that way...but I can't drive w/o my glasses so.... :D
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Well, well, well

TD six today as I expected from all the way back on Thursday. I was convinced from this morning that it was no way this system would wait for Monday to be designated.

Looking good too.

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Quoting gordydunnot:
There is a interesting little spin to the clouds at 12n 48w. This seems to be moving due west so if nothing else it might give a hint to the motion of TD 06. Look at rgb in motion system might be interesting if it wasn't for 06.


Yeah but I think there's a difference between a little something like that that is pretty void of convection and a TD. Not being sarcastic. I just think that's the case.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

So, it doesn't constitue that it can't be discussed on this blog.


Absolutely. I never said that. Just saying.
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1315. wxhatt
New England could be getting some home brew later next week.

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Quoting KoritheMan:


To be fair, climatology has its flaws. 92L proved that.

So, it doesn't constitue that it can't be discussed on this blog.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
Does any of our experts believe the NHC track is wrong?



You can't say the NHC track is wrong. The NHC creates a track based on the data they are given by forecast models. The NHC looks at those models and makes a educated guess of where the system will go. so I wouldn't say the NHC is wrong i would say the tracks are wrong.

This is an extension of my other post 1273

the models shifted the very next advisory big time and thus the NHC slowly moved there tracks in line with the models.

here is discussion for Frances

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/15. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE
RIDGE FROM 48-96 HR AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THIS
VERIFIES...IT WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24-36 HR...AND THEN POSSIBLY TURNING MORE
WESTWARD BY 120 HR AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK CONSIDERABLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO SHIFTS
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS. THE
NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

here is track that corresponds with advisory. Take note this is only a one advisory shift which shows how much error can be in models 5 days out




Ironic that this was also TD 6.I am not saying that current TD 6 will not recurve but this is just showing how the models aren't the gospel this far out
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962
Definitely looks to be moving WNW to me in this loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_flo ater_1
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where is stormW
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Uh it's called climatology for your info.


To be fair, climatology has its flaws. 92L proved that.
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until TD6 or what will be hurricane danielle recurves out to see anything is possible and some have made a good point with hurricane frances in 2004
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Quoting VoodooRue:


I did, as a matter of fact...Scranton, Pennsylvania. PA is depressing, and the winters suck. That's one of the reasons I moved south.
I am originally from Middletown. Just east (I think) of Harrisburg. My mother was Scranton. We left up there in 1963.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
HEY stormpetrol STOP STEELING MY WORD LOL

anyway yes Stormpetrol I sse it moving WSW I was thing more of SW but yes
No, it currently is moving towards the W/WNW not towards the WSW nor SW.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 18z GFS develops a tropical cyclone off of Africa starting at 42 hours. By 54 hours it's a TD/ TS. I believe that it is PGI34L's pouch.


That the one to look out for. a few model runs back it developed it and it went much further south and west, if I recal
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


stop with this thing called logic, it has not business in this room obviously lol

Uh it's called climatology for your info.
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The NOGAPS, GFS, CMC, and (I think) the ECMWF all develop a tropical cyclone off of Africa in less than 5 days.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
HEY stormpetrol STOP STEELING MY WORD LOL

anyway yes Stormpetrol I sse it moving WSW I was thing more of SW but yes
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Does any of our experts believe the NHC track is wrong?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is a interesting little spin to the clouds at 12n 48w. This seems to be moving due west so if nothing else it might give a hint to the motion of TD 06. Look at rgb in motion system might be interesting if it wasn't for 06.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
1295. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Twinkster:
Even though everything is setting up for this to recurve please take a minute to think of past storms where the first track brought it out to sea.

Models can change. I will give an example not saying this will verify but showing just how quickly models can change. Hurricane Frances 2004

first here is track and discussion for TD 6



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS
. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

now here Hurricane Frances 2004



THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS
STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY
THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS
INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.



we all kknow what happened with frances. Things can change in the long run


That, if I've ever seen one, is a good post! I personally think that Danielle will be a fish or at west most will affect Bermuda (then no fish), but you are absolutely right. Besides, that's a storm that made it all the way to FL, so a big shift.
Good post. =)
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Quoting TexasHurricane:



that is old they olny update evere 6 too 8hrs
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Have Firefox and tried other solutions suggested. Just have to go back to lurking for the time being. Might try copy and paste if need to say something important but reading and observing is still interesting.


Many times it takes clicking on the "quote" twice. After the first time you have to go back to the post and click again.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Africa is regurgitating another wave. Looks like it needs to be watched.

Sounds gross... lol
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Quoting Patrap:
Invest 96L..or "Earl"



there is no 96L pat
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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