95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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1435. LBU1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: At maximum intensity, how strong will TD #6 be?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Cat. 1
D. Cat. 2
E. Higher

Sorry. E, but not quickly.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Blasted for a Seinfeld reference?


????
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1433. LBU1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: At maximum intensity, how strong will TD #6 be?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Cat. 1
D. Cat. 2
E. Higher

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: At maximum intensity, how strong will TD #6 be?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Cat. 1
D. Cat. 2
E. Higher

I vote E.
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BBL
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yea Levi, imagine that; the models trending westward

what a shock lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Behind TD6, this guy is starting to gain good model support. ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NOGAPS for example.

It looks well organized.I expect this to be our next system.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16974
1428. bwt1982
TD6 looks to get pretty strong! Thank God it is going to be a fish! WHOOP WHOOP!
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Quoting Levi32:
And look at that ridge.....do you see how this could come farther west than the model consensus before recurving I mean look at that big banana over the top! Such is the pattern....this is why Bermuda should still be watching, and the eastern seaboard keeping a wary eye open just in case.

Deep digging troughs are the
exception, not the rule this time of year and it never takes much time for a ridge to flatten
and erase a temporary weakness...we will have to wait and see what happens between now and 96 hrs...still thinking northwest and then north motion for the final outcome ...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: At maximum intensity, how strong will TD #6 be?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Cat. 1
D. Cat. 2
E. Higher


E. I think TD 6 will eventually hit Category 3 status.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: At maximum intensity, how strong will TD #6 be?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Cat. 1
D. Cat. 2
E. Higher


E. High end Category 3.
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Behind TD6, this guy is starting to gain good model support. ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NOGAPS for example.

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Levi great demonstrations on how the Eastern US needs to watch TD6 carefully. This one spun up faster than I thought. Also with the NAO index going from negative to positive by the time the next system behind TD6, pattern favors a system affecting the US within the 14 day period as a strong ridge builds eastward from the eastern US seaboard towards NW Atlantic and Atlantic Canada. Bermuda needs to watch this system and the next one.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
East of Bermuda:



Big change from 12Z



this is just the beginning
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POLL TIME!

Q: At maximum intensity, how strong will TD #6 be?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Cat. 1
D. Cat. 2
E. Higher
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056


**Advisory graphics will be issued at 8:00 pm EDT for Tropical Depression Nine-E
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www.cyclonezonecz.blogspot.com

LIVE STREAM ON BOTTOM OF PAGE STARTING AT 6:00 CENTRAL TIME
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Quoting scott39:
Yeppers!
Huh?.A westward track is never good.That means it could possibly affect land.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16974
Quoting Levi32:


This is a decent setup for gradual strengthening.

I agree, gradual. It would be nice to see Felix part II, but this won't be it, I don't think.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
Nowhere in the discussion to they mention any westward bias. Nor do they say that the track forecast is uncertain or highly uncertain.


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


they didn't say they were uncertain for frances either and the track shifted greatly in 12 hours
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td6 been at 11n all day how can they keep saying wnw
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1412. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 .YES MORE WEST
Yeppers!
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Quoting Levi32:
And look at that ridge.....do you see how this could come farther west than the model consensus before recurving I mean look at that big banana over the top! Such is the pattern....this is why Bermuda should still be watching, and the eastern seaboard keeping a wary eye open just in case.



Exactly, Levi! Models don't handle ridging too well in the CATL, no matter how deep the system might be, they can create a false sense of security. Take the new GFS run, which switched from one side of Bermuda to a near miss for the east coast. Bermuda needs to be watching this very closely.
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Is that a double vortex I see in TD 6? One over the center of the storm, another one over Cape Verde.





This is going to be a huge storm.
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1409. Levi32
Quoting Dropsonde:
I'm not seeing how this is going to spin up as fast as some here would believe, or as some models want to do. Large system, sandwiched between two areas of shear for the time being, and what I guess we must call "the 2010 factor." Call it downcasting, but I am not really buying that the anticyclone will make much difference. Positioned wrong, an anticyclone can actually act as shear, and the CIMSS maps indicate that TD6 is not positioned optimally with respect to the anticyclone.

It may well get named in a day or so; the NHC has named worse-structured stuff before. But I just can't see it ramping up to a strong TS until around 42-45W.


This is a decent setup for gradual strengthening.

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1408. xcool
scott39 .YES MORE WEST
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
Nowhere in the discussion to they mention any westward bias. Nor do they say that the track forecast is uncertain or highly uncertain.


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE
STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG
OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
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Note (because this blog seems to have a tendency to leap all over any comment that could be construed in an ambiguous way) that I am not saying "no development," just slow and steady until it gets in better conditions. No RI yet, IMO.
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Quoting Levi32:
And look at that ridge.....do you see how this could come farther west than the model consensus before recurving I mean look at that big banana over the top!

And look what's behind it Levi.Another storm.So with that said I belive the one behind it is the one to watch.A hit cannot be ruled out on Bermuda though(by future Danielle).They should pay special attention.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16974
well TropicalAnalystwx13 maybe you are



stormpetrol it look like that but I see it more like 10.8N 32.2W
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1402. scott39
xcool---West
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Quoting Dropsonde:
I'm not seeing how this is going to spin up as fast as some here would believe, or as some models want to do. Large system, sandwiched between two areas of shear for the time being, and what I guess we must call "the 2010 factor." Call it downcasting, but I am not really buying that the anticyclone will make much difference. Positioned wrong, an anticyclone can actually act as shear, and the CIMSS maps indicate that TD6 is not positioned optimally with respect to the anticyclone.

It may well get named in a day or so; the NHC has named worse-structured stuff before. But I just can't see it ramping up to a strong TS until around 42-45W.


Which will inhibit the curving to the north, east coast may need to watch this one though it is a little more than a week away.
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1399. xcool


WOW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
We should see our first Major Hurricane out of this system by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056
Quoting Levi32:
Ya, 18z GFS flops back west now look how close this monster is to Bermuda by Day 8:

This could be one of the top 10 largest cyclones ever in the Atlantic...guess that's what happens with that monsoonal-type development. Notice PGI34L to the southeast of 06L.
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1396. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
Ya, 18z GFS flops back west now look how close this monster is to Bermuda by Day 8:

Just formed as a TD today! Trend is already more W. Hmmm
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1395. Levi32
And look at that ridge.....do you see how this could come farther west than the model consensus before recurving I mean look at that big banana over the top! Such is the pattern....this is why Bermuda should still be watching, and the eastern seaboard keeping a wary eye open just in case.

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Quoting zicoille:
Please TD 6,

Come and visit us in tne northern leewards islands, Please...
Igor(A.k.A king)will grant your wish.Just wait.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16974
I'm not seeing how this is going to spin up as fast as some here would believe, or as some models want to do. Large system, sandwiched between two areas of shear for the time being, and what I guess we must call "the 2010 factor." Call it downcasting, but I am not really buying that the anticyclone will make much difference. Positioned wrong, an anticyclone can actually act as shear, and the CIMSS maps indicate that TD6 is not positioned optimally with respect to the anticyclone.

It may well get named in a day or so; the NHC has named worse-structured stuff before. But I just can't see it ramping up to a strong TS until around 42-45W.
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1392. Gearsts
Eh is the TD moving wsw on the last loop or just me?And is moving west of the track
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1391. Levi32
Ya, 18z GFS flops back west now look how close this monster is to Bermuda by Day 8:

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GFS ended much further west than last run. I personally expect it to go further south and west over the next couple of days
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well been gone almost all day come back,and we have T.D 6.However I belive this little bugger will be out to sea.However the same cannot be said for it's partner in crime(PGI34L)as I belive ridging will build back in and stir it west.Just my opinion.


I agree.
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yup 18Z GFS is farther west
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1387. scott39
If Models are biased for a polar system and the trof doesnt save the day--- Well I just cant say it!!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't recall the post# either but it said he won a NEW CAR.


a hot wheel red Ferrari.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.