95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1486 - 1436

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Kristina, falling back on what you said. How will you take your crow?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1485. smuldy
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I hate to say it, I do fully expect this to be the first major of the year, unless Alex becomes a major after the season is over.
I know the models are showing a major (like they were early on with Colin) but if the trough really does pick this up and moves it 20-25mph beforeit reaches cat 2 status I just think its forward motion will prevent much rapid intensification. If the trough is weaker as Levi suggested some of the outliers on models have been showing, well, all bets on keeping it weaker are off.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
These systems need to stay away from Puerto Rico, Aruba, and USVI.. I'm going on a labor day cruise.

Got insurance though..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
Quoting DestinJeff:


what does that mean, exactly?


Only the Shadow knows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1480. markot
td 6 is moving west.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I believe 06L will become a major hurricane. What category it attains is anyone's guess.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
E.
I go with B,because it will no longer be TD#6 at that time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hate to say it, I do fully expect this to be the first major of the year, unless Alex becomes a major after the season is over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Taz can you elaborate on what the ouch is all about



sorry am not going too elaborate evere thing i say
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1471. wxhatt
E) Because of model support.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Taz can you elaborate on what the ouch is all about


This thing probably wont recurve
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: At maximum intensity, how strong will TD #6 be?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Cat. 1
D. Cat. 2
E. Higher
E.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1467. wxhatt
Don't know that the dry air to the north will become entrained though.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz can you elaborate on what the ouch is all about
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We are about to get pounded here in Broward County. And I do mean pounded
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1462. wxhatt
I see no shear over this system. Outflow looks good in all channels.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1461. xcool
DRY AIR KEEP IN check FOR NOWW


Infrared Channel 2 Loop
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting Hurricanes101:
1455. whs2012 11:15 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

you will be talking to yourself like most ignorant people do.
Lets talk about weather,and not trolls.Anywho I think the wave behind T.D 6 has the greatest potental to threaten the U.s.We'll see though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
Quoting kmanislander:


Good evening to you too. Just stepped off the plane and thought I would check in. Interesting evening on tap.
WOW! Could have swore I crossed you in your BMW this morning!Could be wrong though!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SeniorPoppy:
We have td6? I'm actually shocked that it's a depression this early.

For where this will eventually go, it's anyone's guess.


It's anyone's guess but the experts take it out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I can tell you right now if this guy starts getting going like the models are hinting, this is going to be a problem especially if the GFS's forecast verifies because it now shows a ridge building in with a weak system in a lower latitude than TD6 will be.



GFS 96 hours.



ouch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting miamiheat:
.i dont know what too many people are waiting in here ,,,is august 21st!!!!
.just three named storms,two weaks dt's and a cat 1 hurricane ,,,and now ,,,a fish ,but next one it ll be ,,,,,
..the great active hurricane season 2010!!!
yeah right!!!
I'am waiting for Igore to form.I can tell we will have lots of fun with him.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
I can tell you right now if this guy starts getting going like the models are hinting, this is going to be a problem especially if the GFS's forecast verifies because it now shows a ridge building in with a weak system in a lower latitude than TD6 will be.



GFS 96 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


...

Alex was a borderline Category 2/3 hurricane, where have you been?


he is a troll, ignore him

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have td6? I'm actually shocked that it's a depression this early.

For where this will eventually go, it's anyone's guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting miamiheat:
.i dont know what too many people are waiting in here ,,,is august 21st!!!!
.just three named storms,two weaks dt's and a cat 1 hurricane ,,,and now ,,,a fish ,but next one it ll be ,,,,,
..the great active hurricane season 2010!!!
yeah right!!!


...

Alex was a borderline Category 2/3 hurricane, where have you been?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1449. will45
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Will45, Another good site is TwisterData.com


cool ty
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: At maximum intensity, how strong will TD #6 be?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Cat. 1
D. Cat. 2
E. Higher


E. A cat. 4, like Bill.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1445. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
1442. will45
I tell you what guys and gals that Allan Huffman site is awesome for a non pay site
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting Levi32:
Guys, I want you all to look at this image closely. The 12z ECMWF operational was crud and completely wrong on how early the recurve is. It will get farther west than that but look at the Euro ensemble mean. This is the 500mb ensemble mean Day 10....guess what that trough and purple colors represent off the SE US coast. They represent TD 6. The ensemble mean this morning has the storm coming west of Bermuda, and really too close to comfort for the United States.

The pattern is progressive so the storm would have to miss 2 troughs to make it there, but the troughs are riding too far north to recurve it as early as the operational run had it. The pattern favors ridging building over the northwest Atlantic meaning the troughs come and go just like that, without digging in much. A storm could have a chance to sneak underneath them and get caught beneath the ridging.

My point? Models have a poleward bias as always, and although this is still more likely to recurve out to sea than make it all the way to the US, we should still watch it and Bermuda especially cannot rest easy. Seriously.



Could we please quote this every hour or something?

Thanks, Levi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting miamiheat:
.i dont know what too many people are waiting in here ,,,is august 21st!!!!
.just three named storms,two weaks dt's and a cat 1 hurricane ,,,and now ,,,a fish ,but next one it ll be ,,,,,
..the great active hurricane season 2010!!!
yeah right!!!


I suggest salt and pepper with those words and a glass of ice tea to wash them down lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Right now at the end of the forecast period, the NHC has Danielle at 55.5W. Even if they are off by 500miles that still put him at 65.5W and still only a threat to Bermuda.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1438. smuldy
Right now I'd say D, if it does get sucked up by the trough it will be moving too fast to get any stronger.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting DestinJeff:
East of Bermuda:



Big change from 12Z



Trough all but gone on 18Z.


You can't show the same times with 2 different runs and compare them. They will be off by at least 6 hours, possibly 12.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1486 - 1436

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.