95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting taco2me61:

Yelp and most are the Newbies on here.... Have you noticed that most of the older ones in here just donot post as much anymore.... I know I don't, I just lurk from the back and watch....

Taco :o)



Speaking of older ones, where has Presslord been? Is he too busy with Portlight?
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3384. IKE
12Z GFS is further north at 162 hours...
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3383. Grothar
Quoting taco2me61:
Grother have you been on here since 04 or was it before 04???? I came in here in 04 but started in the Blog in 05

Taco :o)


Saw a comment from someone else whether you were referring to 1904 or 2004. I wasn't even in the country in 1904. LOL

I was a lurker in 2005 and then became a stalker in 2009. I didn't get enough abuse from my wife, so I figured I would come on here and be abused by strangers. Softens the blow. LOL
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168 hours, drifting northward.
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3381. Patrap
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Yea you kept getting your @ss pinched.


bruises still..
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another naked swirl this season should be rated R......
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Quoting Patrap:
That happened a lot i Jerusalem when they Quoted Jesus.

Grothar,,remember that One Roman Soldier and that wine thing?

Floodman still has a warrant I believe. So We all should avoid Rome still.
Yea you kept getting your @ss pinched.
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Quoting YourCommonSense:
We all know the models are garbage, unless it shows it right on wunderkidcayman doorstep....


+1 lol
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Quoting Grothar:


Tough crowd today! LOL

Yelp and most are the Newbies on here.... Have you noticed that most of the older ones in here just donot post as much anymore.... I know I don't, I just lurk from the back and watch....

Taco :o)

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
at 150 hours the weakness is closing and another ridge is coming off the NE coast


yeah... its scaring me
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156 hours, slowing down as it drifts towards the NNW.

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at 150 hours the weakness is closing and another ridge is coming off the NE coast
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3372. breald
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z GFS Hour: 126



12z GFS Hour: 132



12z GFS Hour: 138



12z GFS Hour: 144



12z GFS Hour: 150



12z GFS Hour: 156



12z GFS Hour: 162



12z GFS Hour: 168



12z GFS Hour: 174



12z GFS Hour: 180



12z GFS Hour: 192



It doesn't look to move much.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
OMG looks like the mode runs did a big turn and now more W
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It does work! It does work!

lol
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
3369. Patrap
That happened a lot in Jerusalem when they Quoted Jesus.

Grothar,,remember that One Roman Soldier and the wine thing?

Grothar still has a warrant I believe. So We all should avoid Rome still.
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Do you think that this going to be a "fish" storm....or rather is this going to stay away from South Florida?
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12z GFS Hour: 126



12z GFS Hour: 132



12z GFS Hour: 138



12z GFS Hour: 144



12z GFS Hour: 150



12z GFS Hour: 156



12z GFS Hour: 162



12z GFS Hour: 168



12z GFS Hour: 174



12z GFS Hour: 180



12z GFS Hour: 192

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Huge jog north in latest loop.
Models all over the place.
And then there's this plot.
Link
Hudson River?
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3365. Grothar
Quoting breald:


No I just thought it was odd all of sudden you are quoting someone from last night is all.

I personally like Groher's post.


Tough crowd today! LOL
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3364. breald
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Why not they quote all the trolls?


LOL.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Through 132 hours it is moving NW. If you extrapolate it should move right to the north of Bermuda. Could be a close one for Bermuda. After it passes Bermuda it gets tricky what it'll do.
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looks like at 120 hours the system moves more WNW
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Models seem to be wanting to pick up a weakness and a hard turn to the NW, but then high pressure may build back in. East coast not off the hook with this one.
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3360. IKE
Exact same spot at 114 hours on the 12Z GFS, that it was at 120 on the 6Z run.
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Quoting taco2me61:
Grother have you been on here since 04 or was it before 04????

Taco :o)


inb4 1904 XD
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
120 hours, moving NW.



I have an idea...I wonder if we could post all the hours for the 12z GFS that haven't shown yet, and see if it would refresh it when we refreshed so we wouldn't have to keep posting and posting the hours...

Let me try that
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z GFS Hour: 114



5 mb stronger than the 06z run.
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Quoting breald:
Why are you guys quoting Grother?
Why not they quote all the trolls?
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3355. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
0:00 AM JST August 23 2010
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In The South China Sea

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 16.0N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.5N 109.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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120 hours, moving NW, right towards Bermuda.

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12z GFS Hour: 114

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Grother have you been on here since 04 or was it before 04???? I came in here in 04 but started in the Blog in 05

Taco :o)
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3350. breald
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why shouldn't we?


Well everyone but you can....LOL
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
3349. breald
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why shouldn't we?


No I just thought it was odd all of sudden you are quoting someone from last night is all.

I personally like Groher's post.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting Grothar:


Keep dreaming!


I can see it well, a big shift lol
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3347. Patrap
18 Z is yesterday afternoon.

If you need to relate UTC to Local..just use yer local radar.

This Morning 12 Z Dynamic Models.



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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Clouds filling in over the COC as of the 15:45 UTC image:



I guess it doesn't want to be seen naked anymore...lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting breald:
Why are you guys quoting Grother?


Why shouldn't we?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting breald:
Why are you guys quoting Grother?


Wasn't aware that was not allowed here
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Breald, there are those that have been blogging in here a long time that are trusted.
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3342. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Big shift west Grothar from last night.


Keep dreaming!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
90 hours, moving NW:



Oh no, 992 mb on the GFS is 965 mb.
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Quoting breald:
Why are you guys quoting Grother?


Why shouldn't we?
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12z GFS Hour: 084



12z GFS Hour: 090



12z GFS Hour: 096



12z GFS Hour: 102



12z GFS Hour: 108

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Storms need to be tropical storm strength or greater for fujiwara effect to occur


can happen with extra tropical systems as well though, so im not sure what your saying.
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Clouds filling in over the COC as of the 15:45 UTC image:


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3336. breald
Why are you guys quoting Grother?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.