95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Scimet:
Reading an earlier posting, I think Storm is right. The models are in too much agreement for this storm not to move north of the Lesser Antilles. The track may shift a little to the left over time as the center consolidates, but overall, the low-pressure troughs should steer it to the northeast over time. This disturbance reminds me of the wave that spawned Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Cyclogenesis occurred in the deep tropics off the African coast and despite forming at a low latitude, all the forecast models agreed that it would move northeast of the Leeward Islands. At the time, it was hard to believe that would have happened, but the models were right. On board the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft on one of the recon flights, I recalled the on-board meteorologist telling me that the models had better have it right or else the islands would have been in serious trouble. On Sept 13, flying into the eye, sustained winds topped 165 mph and sure in deed it was quite a hurricane. Good thing though, it moved well northeast of the islands. I am thinking of going on one of the recon flights with the Hurricane Hunters if this storm develops. It may be possible to give you guys a report from the recon flight.
Sounds great.
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1635. smuldy
Quoting bwt1982:


Yeah I guess so! Just like Colin. It was plain to see it was a "fish" from the start but EVERYONE kept saying "its going west" "its going to miss the front" "its going to the carib"..... And in the end like always it was a "fish" besides coming close to Bermuda.
to be fair Colin did head west of the early tracks and became a threat to Bermuda. Thankfully its forward speed kept it from intensifying so when it hit strong wind sheer it just fizzled and died.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1634. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
lets take things up a notch
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
Quoting bwt1982:


Yeah I guess so! Just like Colin. It was plain to see it was a "fish" from the start but EVERYONE kept saying "its going west" "its going to miss the front" "its going to the carib"..... And in the end like always it was a "fish" besides coming close to Bermuda.


I really do not remember that at all must of been another blog.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5279
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why, nobody else can use it?
You gots to have been a sailor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1630. KYDan
Very nice uncluttered forecast map.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1629. xcool


AL, 06, 2010082200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 323W, 25, 1008, TD
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting scott39:
Pirates say it all the time. Be my guest
LMAO!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting aquak9:


hooboy. Duh. Shows you how well I keep up with sports.

we will be rumbly most of the evening, I can be sure of that. Gust fronts on occasion, trees wooshing around up high. Sounds and feels awesome-cool. DEEEP long slow rumbles, occasional strobe lights.

How long will/can they postpone the game?


Right now they are saying 9:00 pm start. Not sure how long they would wait if lightning continues.
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1626. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP092010
0:00 AM UTC August 22 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Organizing

LOCATION 13.7N 93.5W
MAX WINDS: 30 knots
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Mexico coast from Salina Cruz westward to Lagunas de Chacahua
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
It's crucial to see what T-number the satellite agencies give 05L. That will probably be the give as to what intensity we see at 11p.m.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
1623. bwt1982
Quoting scott39:
Simple-- A Fish is not as exciting!


Yeah I guess so! Just like Colin. It was plain to see it was a "fish" from the start but EVERYONE kept saying "its going west" "its going to miss the front" "its going to the carib"..... And in the end like always it was a "fish" besides coming close to Bermuda.
Member Since: September 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
1622. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why, nobody else can use it?
Pirates say it all the time. Be my guest
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Sooo, in 2 hours Danielle?
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1620. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS STORM 2 PGI AOI
MARK
XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
1619. aquak9
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thats where the game is, Jax.


hooboy. Duh. Shows you how well I keep up with sports.

we will be rumbly most of the evening, I can be sure of that. Gust fronts on occasion, trees wooshing around up high. Sounds and feels awesome-cool. DEEEP long slow rumbles, occasional strobe lights.

How long will/can they postpone the game?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1618. scott39
Quoting smuldy:
And because tracking tropical cyclones is so complex and relies on so many factors it is usually easy to see something that is questionable, ie strong deep troughs in August with only moderate ridging to their west this time. That said yes with model agreement this strong 98 times in 100 it will be right and this will recurve out to sea. But because of the other 2 times it is worth just watching until the recurve happens.
exactly, I couldnt have said it better myself!
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:

That is a totally awesome picture!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey!

No stealing Storm's word!

Aye!
Why, nobody else can use it?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
That 18Z HWRF should be discounted. Take a look here at the strength of Danielle at 126 hr. Tropical storm winds which would explain the westward drift or stall. So take your pick of which to believe. Tropical Storm Danielle moving west unable to "shoot" the weakness or Cat 2 or 3 Danielle following the path of least resistance between the highs. The latter still looks the most believable.


Link
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1614. smuldy
Quoting scott39:
Simple-- A Fish is not as exciting!
And because tracking tropical cyclones is so complex and relies on so many factors it is usually easy to see something that is questionable, ie strong deep troughs in August with only moderate ridging to their west this time. That said yes with model agreement this strong 98 times in 100 it will be right and this will recurve out to sea. But because of the other 2 times it is worth just watching until the recurve happens.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1613. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
06L/TD/D
MARK
11.11N/32.32W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Aye! That makes two of us.


How about three.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1611. bwt1982
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup this may not be a fish storm



sorry for the fishcaster


LOL! Like every other storm that has turned out to be a fish, I will take my chances!
Member Since: September 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143








move along little L
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Quoting Vero1:


http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif


Ooh... Only question is if thats a tropical or extra-tropical cyclone.
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Quoting aquak9:
plenty of lightning up here too, eyewall, but barely a drizzle. Thanks for the update.


Thats where the game is, Jax.
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'

uh oh, weak though
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Aye! That makes two of us.


Hey!

No stealing Storm's word!

Aye!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
1605. scott39
Quoting bwt1982:
I ask this question in the nicest way with no harm meant, but how come everytime there is a storm in the Atlantic that has all the models sending it out to sea and all the conditions for that to happen, everyone still "sees" something on there computer that tells them otherwise. I have been lurking on here for a long time and it is always the same thing? There is a storm out there that is going to be a "fish" but everyone still thinks it will still head west and miss the front coming off the east coast or the high pressure is stronger than they think? I have seen alot of people get flamed for the most simple of commnets that a paticular storm will be a fish but not the other way around? Why is this?
Simple-- A Fish is not as exciting!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Scimet:
Reading an earlier posting, I think Storm is right. The models are in too much agreement for this storm not to move north of the Lesser Antilles. The track may shift a little to the left over time as the center consolidates, but overall, the low-pressure troughs should steer it to the northeast over time. This disturbance reminds me of the wave that spawned Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Cyclogenesis occurred in the deep tropics off the African coast and despite forming at a low latitude, all the forecast models agreed that it would move northeast of the Leeward Islands. At the time, it was hard to believe that would have happened, but the models were right. On board the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft on one of the recon flights, I recalled the on-board meteorologist telling me that the models had better have it right or else the islands would have been in serious trouble. On Sept 13, flying into the eye, sustained winds topped 165 mph and sure in deed it was quite a hurricane. Good thing though, it moved well northeast of the islands. I am thinking of going on one of the recon flights with the Hurricane Hunters if this storm develops. It may be possible to give you guys a report from the recon flight.


I'd love that!
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Someone say lightning?????

Check this one I shot from last night!!


BBL
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1602. Vero1
Quoting MrstormX:


Really a British Isle Hurricane, is that legit? Link?


http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting Hurricanes101:
18Z GFS shows TD 6 much further west and a weakness that is closing, look at that ridge by the east coast?

Fish you say?

I say not so fast
Aye! That makes two of us.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
1599. smuldy
Quoting blsealevel:


Yea i thought i read somewhere about this being forcasted to travel accross the GOMEX
into S Tx next week isnt supposed to do anything But with the way things been going this year Im not turning my back
I may be wrong but I thought that was from a different trough split forecast to happen between LA and the FL panhandle
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1598. scott39
Quoting osuwxguynew:
As for TD6 right now...

Still some easterly shear which should slowly diminish as the LLC starts accelerating to the west, allowing the center to become vertically stacked and some intensification to begin. Looks like late tonight or tomorrow seems like a good bet for this to occur.

How confident are you ,on the trof, in picking TD6 up and recurving her before any land? Im just not "feeling" it. Ive seen too many credible posts against it.
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Link hwrf link
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Quoting Vero1:



Really a British Isle Hurricane, is that legit? Link?
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The forecast for Tropical Depression Six at the end of the forecast period remains very uncertain.
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1594. bwt1982
I ask this question in the nicest way with no harm meant, but how come everytime there is a storm in the Atlantic that has all the models sending it out to sea and all the conditions for that to happen, everyone still "sees" something on there computer that tells them otherwise. I have been lurking on here for a long time and it is always the same thing? There is a storm out there that is going to be a "fish" but everyone still thinks it will still head west and miss the front coming off the east coast or the high pressure is stronger than they think? I have seen alot of people get flamed for the most simple of commnets that a paticular storm will be a fish but not the other way around? Why is this?
Member Since: September 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
1593. Scimet
Reading an earlier posting, I think Storm is right. The models are in too much agreement for this storm not to move north of the Lesser Antilles. The track may shift a little to the left over time as the center consolidates, but overall, the low-pressure troughs should steer it to the northeast over time. This disturbance reminds me of the wave that spawned Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Cyclogenesis occurred in the deep tropics off the African coast and despite forming at a low latitude, all the forecast models agreed that it would move northeast of the Leeward Islands. At the time, it was hard to believe that would have happened, but the models were right. On board the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft on one of the recon flights, I recalled the on-board meteorologist telling me that the models had better have it right or else the islands would have been in serious trouble. On Sept 13, flying into the eye, sustained winds topped 165 mph and sure in deed it was quite a hurricane. Good thing though, it moved well northeast of the islands. I am thinking of going on one of the recon flights with the Hurricane Hunters if this storm develops. It may be possible to give you guys a report from the recon flight.
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1592. xcool
PM TWD Special Feature discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 32.1W AT 21/2100
UTC OR 500 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
W-NW AT 08 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
RESIDES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N20W WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTER TO 15N39W. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
PROVIDE FOR MINIMAL WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN
25W-41W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
1591. smuldy
An right on cue directv goes out and so a strong rainband must be sweeping in.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Someone say lightning?????

Check this one I shot from last night!!


BBL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Made at 4:40 p?


m.
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1588. Vero1

Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting AllStar17:


Made at 4:40 p?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.