95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting markot:
look at the loops......west or wsw


TD#6 ? I see a wnw motion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1685. SeaMule
would if this storm gets so strong, that it decides to "ignore" steering currents. I mean...I remember Gilbert. Just a straight shot. and it was a player. The models don't quite understand, nor do the computers play with strong storms. If this develops...it might head west. WAIT...am I dumb...or what? It's heading straight west.....


cat 6 heading our way....give it a few days...and the models...the mets...and the sheeple....will be ooohing and ahhing...

aint' it fun?
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1684. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
535

WHXX01 KWBC 220031

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0031 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062010) 20100822 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100822 0000 100822 1200 100823 0000 100823 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.2N 32.3W 11.8N 33.4W 13.0N 34.7W 14.6N 36.9W

BAMD 11.2N 32.3W 11.9N 33.9W 12.6N 35.6W 13.5N 37.5W

BAMM 11.2N 32.3W 11.9N 33.7W 13.0N 35.2W 14.4N 37.5W

LBAR 11.2N 32.3W 11.8N 34.5W 12.7N 37.4W 13.4N 40.8W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100824 0000 100825 0000 100826 0000 100827 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.5N 40.1W 20.0N 47.9W 21.1N 54.2W 21.2N 56.5W

BAMD 14.7N 39.7W 18.6N 44.2W 23.4N 48.2W 27.8N 50.5W

BAMM 16.1N 40.4W 19.7N 47.1W 21.8N 52.5W 23.2N 55.3W

LBAR 14.1N 44.4W 15.7N 51.0W 17.2N 54.4W 25.1N 55.3W

SHIP 60KTS 78KTS 84KTS 84KTS

DSHP 60KTS 78KTS 84KTS 84KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 32.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1683. markot
look at the loops......west or wsw
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ASCAT revealed a rather impressive circulation.


Yes it did... Won't take much to become a ts. Probably it will be a ts by morning.
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1681. Patrap
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1680. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DestinJeff:


way to go, ASCAT.
nice catch
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1678. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
aquak
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ASCAT revealed a rather impressive circulation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1675. xcool
1 KWBC 220028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062010) 20100822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100822 0000 100822 1200 100823 0000 100823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 32.3W 11.8N 33.4W 13.0N 34.7W 14.6N 36.9W
BAMD 11.2N 32.3W 11.9N 33.9W 12.6N 35.6W 13.5N 37.5W
BAMM 11.2N 32.3W 11.9N 33.7W 13.0N 35.2W 14.4N 37.5W
LBAR 11.2N 32.3W 11.8N 34.5W 12.7N 37.4W 13.4N 40.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100824 0000 100825 0000 100826 0000 100827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 40.1W 20.0N 47.9W 21.1N 54.2W 21.2N 56.5W
BAMD 14.7N 39.7W 18.6N 44.2W 23.4N 48.2W 27.8N 50.5W
BAMM 16.1N 40.4W 19.7N 47.1W 21.8N 52.5W 23.2N 55.3W
LBAR 14.1N 44.4W 15.7N 51.0W 17.2N 54.4W 25.1N 55.3W
SHIP 60KTS 78KTS 84KTS 84KTS
DSHP 60KTS 78KTS 84KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 32.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1674. Patrap
.."Up, Up and away..."
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1673. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1672. scott39
Quoting Patrap:

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Follow the white brick road.
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06l still looking pretty good.... the wave behind it is scary.
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Latest ASCAT


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Aye (LOL)! Looks to be moving towards the W to me too, earlier I thought I was seeing some northerly component but it looks due west now.


I think is moving wnw following the track points.
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1668. Halyn
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That is absolutely gorgeous !! Truly awesome !
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I thought it was Crazy George..




Hahahahahahahahaha, you crack me up
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1664. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95/TD6
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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1663. markot
hi i said this earlier look at loops, it is moving west. not north...
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1662. JRRP
wow TD 6
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5973
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since steering is being brought up, I thought I'd post this little bit of wisdom from a 2003 article by Steve Lyons:

  • "Steering currents are defined as the vertically averaged (and pressure weighted) wind that pushes a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane) along. It is very difficult if not impossible to determine the exact contributions a specific layer of winds has for that motion, but we can estimate "steering" IF we know what the winds are surrounding a tropical cyclone at some levels in the atmosphere.

  • "We routinely know surrounding winds in the low levels (about 1,500 to 2,000 feet) and near the surface, and in the upper levels about 30,000-45,000 feet. Buoys, ships, satellites and occasionally aircraft provide these observations. Obviously, knowing how "steering" will change in time is critically important to forecasting the track of a tropical cyclone.

  • "There are occasions when low-level and upper-level winds are very different in direction and speed (a "shearing/sheared" environment). It turns out weak tropical cyclones routinely are steered by lower-level winds than are hurricanes and strong hurricanes which are typically deep and hence steered by deep layer averaged winds. Upper level wind steering (from about 25,000-50,000 feet) becomes very important in strong hurricanes.

  • "In "steering" situations where wind changes speed and direction with height (sheared environment), it becomes impossible to forecast "steering" change without forecasting tropical cyclone depth/strength/intensity change!

  • "There are many situations, then, where a tropical cyclone will move in one direction if it is weak and remains weak, though it could move in a different direction--with possibly a different speed--if it were stronger and deeper.


"Therefore any statement about track MUST be tied to intensity and intensity change in sheared environments. A few classic recent examples of sheared environments are Hurricane Lenny and Tropical Storm Allison. There are others: 2003's Mindy and Kate come to mind as a few examples...look at their track changes (right or left turns) relative to how their intensity changed (weakening or strengthening)

"Therefore it is my forecast method to always realize that, in sheared environments one cannot forecast track without forecasting intensity."

Thank you! I have been hoping for days now for explanations concerning steering! :)
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1659. scott39
Quoting osuwxguynew:


It's not a typical setup for recurve. There is a strong High over Low blocking setting up off the East Coast and another strong low forecast to deepen in the northeast Atlantic.

The combination of these two features slowly weakens the overall strength of the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high, but to me given those placecments of the low, the ridge seemingly would stay the strongest (relative) in the central Atlantic.
Thanks
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Quoting DestinJeff:


who started The Wave?


God...................................
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Quoting scott39:
How confident are you ,on the trof, in picking TD6 up and recurving her before any land? Im just not "feeling" it. Ive seen too many credible posts against it.


It's not a typical setup for recurve. There is a strong High over Low blocking setting up off the East Coast and another strong low forecast to deepen in the northeast Atlantic.

The combination of these two features slowly weakens the overall strength of the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high, but to me given those placecments of the low, the ridge seemingly would stay the strongest (relative) in the central Atlantic.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


right now center is at 11.1 or even 11.0

I see no northward movement to it whatsoever
Aye (LOL)! Looks to be moving towards the W to me too, earlier I thought I was seeing some northerly component but it looks due west now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting DestinJeff:
Latitude gain is most important in the short-term for TD6.


Just like the 540 line we use to forecast snow, one of the first things I learned in tropical meteorology forecasting was the 60/20 rule. If a storm gets to 20 north before 60 west, good chance its heading into the Atlantic (still Bermuda has to watch).
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
POSS STORM 2 PGI AOI
MARK
XX/XX

Yikes!!
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1649. smuldy
Quoting weatherman12345:

is there any model support for the wave approaching the african coast??
yes
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
TAFB at T2.0
Not sure about SAB but I think it is also at T2.0.
Likely that 06L goes to a 35mph TD at 11a.m.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting aquak9:


oh man. Jax NWS radar took a hit. We are DOWN.


Saw that

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

JACKSONVILLE (KJAX) RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Latitude gain is most important in the short-term for TD6.


right now center is at 11.1 or even 11.0

I see no northward movement to it whatsoever
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
1643. scott39
Quoting bwt1982:


Yeah I guess so! Just like Colin. It was plain to see it was a "fish" from the start but EVERYONE kept saying "its going west" "its going to miss the front" "its going to the carib"..... And in the end like always it was a "fish" besides coming close to Bermuda.
If its a "fish"--its a "fish". Thats not the point. Its the thought of it not being a "fish". It shouldnt be exciting in a good way, although for a few on here I wonder? If the hurricane season was all "fish", most bloggers would not be on this site! IMO
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1641. aquak9
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Right now they are saying 9:00 pm start. Not sure how long they would wait if lightning continues.


oh man. Jax NWS radar took a hit. We are DOWN.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
'

uh oh, weak though



not good
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I have the center at 11.1N 32.8W

basically moving due west right now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting Chucktown:
That 18Z HWRF should be discounted. Take a look here at the strength of Danielle at 126 hr. Tropical storm winds which would explain the westward drift or stall. So take your pick of which to believe. Tropical Storm Danielle moving west unable to "shoot" the weakness or Cat 2 or 3 Danielle following the path of least resistance between the highs. The latter still looks the most believable.


Link


I don't think it should be thrown out, after all this is the HWRF and it is not for once bombing out a storm. With the GFS shifting westward; it is still a wait and see.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting Scimet:
Reading an earlier posting, I think Storm is right. The models are in too much agreement for this storm not to move north of the Lesser Antilles. The track may shift a little to the left over time as the center consolidates, but overall, the low-pressure troughs should steer it to the northeast over time. This disturbance reminds me of the wave that spawned Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Cyclogenesis occurred in the deep tropics off the African coast and despite forming at a low latitude, all the forecast models agreed that it would move northeast of the Leeward Islands. At the time, it was hard to believe that would have happened, but the models were right. On board the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft on one of the recon flights, I recalled the on-board meteorologist telling me that the models had better have it right or else the islands would have been in serious trouble. On Sept 13, flying into the eye, sustained winds topped 165 mph and sure in deed it was quite a hurricane. Good thing though, it moved well northeast of the islands. I am thinking of going on one of the recon flights with the Hurricane Hunters if this storm develops. It may be possible to give you guys a report from the recon flight.
Sounds great.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.