95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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1786. PanhandleChuck
1:26 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting LADobeLady:
I freely admit I'm a fishwishcaster...so please all west casters shhhh


Lady

I was on earlier telling the folks that I hadn't had ant hills like i saw today while mowing since about 10 days before gustav
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
1785. markot
1:26 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
DONT WISH,,,,,, LOOK.
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1784. TORMENTOSO83
1:26 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 286
1782. MiamiHurricanes09
1:25 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
The circulation of 06L is clearly moving towards the west. It is also located near 11N 33W.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1781. StormSurgeon
1:25 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


wouldn't Depression Five be near Georgia or South Carolina?


It's still over central Ga.
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1780. stormhank
1:25 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
the wave about to exit west african coast....I just wonder will it follow td6 / danielles path also??
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1779. TORMENTOSO83
1:25 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
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1778. jonelu
1:25 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
some westcasting going on...
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1777. markot
1:24 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
look at the LOOPS.
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1776. LADobeLady
1:24 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
I freely admit I'm a fishwishcaster...so please all west casters shhhh
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1775. xcool
1:24 AM GMT on August 22, 2010



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1774. scott39
1:23 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting A4Guy:
If you add the NHC forecast track overlays to the sat images...TD6 looks to be right on track...moving WNW.

Personally...I never understand how a trough thousands of miles away can exert enough of an influence to recurve a storm...but it happens all the time, so it must. I guess it creates enough weakness and becomes the path of least resistance for the storm to follow.
good--simple--explanation.
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1773. weatherwart
1:23 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
where?


That big scary blob that's covering the entire country of Senegal.
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1772. earthlydragonfly
1:22 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Thank you all for the wonderful comments on my image!!!


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1771. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:22 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Am I seeing things? TD 05 the immortal system? Karen's 1st cousin? The circ that won't go away? Back out over water?

28w, 84w?

RGB LOOP


wouldn't Depression Five be near Georgia or South Carolina?
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1770. earthlydragonfly
1:22 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Thank you all for the wonderful comments on my image!!!

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1769. JLPR2
1:21 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Some will have to see NHC post WNW for a couple of days to believe. It really does look like its going W on the Sat, but "looks" can be deceiving.


Exactly!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1768. scott39
1:21 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting JLPR2:
NHC says there is a north component, so I dont get why you guys are seeing it moving west.

AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD
AL, 06, 2010082200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 323W, 25, 1008, TD

Doesn't look west to me, maybe WNW.
Some will have to see NHC post WNW for a couple of days to believe. It really does look like its going W on the Sat, but "looks" can be deceiving.
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1766. A4Guy
1:19 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
If you add the NHC forecast track overlays to the sat images...TD6 looks to be right on track...moving WNW.

Personally...I never understand how a trough thousands of miles away can exert enough of an influence to recurve a storm...but it happens all the time, so it must. I guess it creates enough weakness and becomes the path of least resistance for the storm to follow.
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1765. xcool
1:18 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
scott39 haha
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1764. TORMENTOSO83
1:18 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think we will have another circle on the NHC map sometime tomorrow:

where?
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1763. MiamiHurricanes09
1:17 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
The ASCAT pass missed the area of deepest convection, likely where the strongest winds are. Maximum non-contaminated winds on the data we did get though do not exceed 25 knots. But, we have TAFB giving this a T-number of 2.0 which would make 06L a 35mph TD. We'll see how it goes, likely to stay at 30mph (ASCAT and SAB) but possible to go to 35mph (TAFB).
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1762. scott39
1:17 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting markot:
west....end of story...
Hey xcool already told that story! LOL
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1761. xcool
1:17 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
txsweetpea .no clue right now..
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1760. JLPR2
1:17 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
NHC says there is a north component, so I dont get why you guys are seeing it moving west.

AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD
AL, 06, 2010082200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 323W, 25, 1008, TD

Doesn't look west to me, maybe WNW.
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1759. markot
1:16 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
west....end of story...
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1758. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:15 AM GMT on August 22, 2010


In theSouth China Sea, west of Philippines and near Hainan Island.
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1757. wxhatt
1:15 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Am I seeing things? TD 05 the immortal system? Karen's 1st cousin? The circ that won't go away? Back out over water?

28w, 84w?

RGB LOOP


Wow, Just won't dissipate!
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1756. markot
1:15 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
go look at the loops........
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1755. txsweetpea
1:15 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting xcool:
MOVEING WEST .THE END.

Td 6?I thought it looked like it was too. How long do you think it is going to move west?
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
1754. A4Guy
1:15 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Sebastian....what's with all the Frances posts?

The models are in excellent agreement on TD6...I don't think we are going to see a Frances-like track. I am sure we can't rule it out 100%...but probably 99.9%.
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1753. scott39
1:15 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
W
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1752. GeoffreyWPB
1:14 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
I think we will have another circle on the NHC map sometime tomorrow:

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1750. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
sebastianflorida all your posts are being flagged for violation of comm standards
regards
KOTG.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I Guess It Is Too Early To Say Where This Is Going, That Is My Point Here.
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1748. markot
WATCH YOURS WEST............................
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1747. scott39
Quoting markot:
GOT IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
your funny!! NWN
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1746. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
China Meteorological Administration

** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 05 INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC
00HR 16.3N 115.1E 1002HPA 14M/S (30 knots)
P12HR WNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 17.5N 112.4E 994HPA 20M/S (40 knots)=

--
94W
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1744. xcool
scott39 LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
21/2345 UTC 11.3N 32.3W T1.5/1.5 06L
SAB still has it at 1.5..

TAFB at 2.0
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1741. markot
GOT IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
Am I seeing things? TD 05 the immortal system? Karen's 1st cousin? The circ that won't go away? Back out over water?

28w, 84w?

RGB LOOP
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Link
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1738. scott39
Quoting markot:
west!!!!!!!!!! got it.
Watch your blood pessure there chief! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Please remind me, why are we posting advisories from a hurricane 6 years ago?
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1736. markot
not WNW
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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