95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Stormwatcher
You are very welcome. I truly admire you for the awesome photos of lightning you take.
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1835. tkeith
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, tell Jason to do a video of it! Now that would be a classic!
now that you mention it...lol. I think he would be the one :)

sorry Dewey...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The circulation of 06L is clearly moving towards the west. It is also located near 11N 33W.



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
1833. angiest
If it is currently moving due west, then the next advisory will say something to the effect of, although the depression has been moving due west for the last few hours, the overall motion is still wnw/285 degrees.
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1831. aquak9
duh

can't even post instructions
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Quoting tkeith:


I nominate Dewey :)
Nah, tell Jason to do a video of it! Now that would be a classic!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1829. tkeith
Quoting scott39:
I dont know either. Somebody please give a class.


I nominate Dewey :)
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The circulation appears to be near 11N 33W, evidently south of forecast points. Also going a bit quicker than forecasted.

Obviously moving due west.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1827. scott39
Quoting Ryuujin:


No, south of the points. At least from the pic I tried to post. Have no idea how to do it, however. Any clues? Sorry for being a newb.
I dont know either. Somebody please give a class.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
yea the loop verifies it, the circulation is right along 11N and moving due west

pretty clearly too
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1825. aquak9
I see you tormento but I don't know how to explain it- let a smarter mind than me do that
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1824. xcool


updatee
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Beautiful.


Thanks Stormwatcher
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obeserven como me contestarán!!

Cómo puedo subir aquí una foto?
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
the 00Z position could be off, at least it is to me

looks to be moving due west on visible and that is pretty clear
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Quoting scott39:
In the same direction of them but faster?
South of them, and faster.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1819. Ryuujin
Quoting scott39:
In the same direction of them but faster?


No, south of the points. At least from the pic I tried to post. Have no idea how to do it, however. Any clues? Sorry for being a newb.
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Quoting blsealevel:


man you gots some talent


Thanks BLsealevel!! means alot!
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1817. aquak9
panhandle

keeel the ants
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1816. xcool


getting kaboom
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting DoubleAction:


Seems something might also brew up in the GOM, models keep hinting on something there from a split low within the next week.



GOM already got some spin going off the coast of the Big Bend area. TD 05 remnants? Maybe not, but sure looks like some spin already going on there on RGB LOOP and moving swest.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1814. calder
btwntx08 not on? crying into his pillow?
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I'm not an ant-caster LOL. Just an observation that I shared and had a disclaimer


LOL! Neither am I, just something that I was told long ago by a very wise old man that turned out to be true in 3 major hurricanes that have hit my area.
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1812. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
06L is ahead of forecasts points.
In the same direction of them but faster?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting RotorYacht:


WOW! That is amazing!!!! Doesn't even look real. Photoshop? Just Kidding.. Great Work!



Thank you very much... Nope no PS work.. Well I did crop the image.
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1810. calder
Quoting weatherwart:


Out to see what?


To see the early setting sun in the central atlantic :)
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1808. markot
west/
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
Quoting LADobeLady:
Chuck, careful with that, you know you'll get ripped here for it. It was a phenomenon that I haven't seen since Katrina/Gustav.


I'm not an ant-caster LOL. Just an observation that I shared and had a disclaimer
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:



man you gots some talent
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
06L is ahead of forecasts points.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting earthlydragonfly:



WOW! That is amazing!!!! Doesn't even look real. Photoshop? Just Kidding.. Great Work!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The ASCAT pass missed the area of deepest convection, likely where the strongest winds are. Maximum non-contaminated winds on the data we did get though do not exceed 25 knots. But, we have TAFB giving this a T-number of 2.0 which would make 06L a 35mph TD. We'll see how it goes, likely to stay at 30mph (ASCAT and SAB) but possible to go to 35mph (TAFB).


TD 6 will probably be Danielle tomorrow at 5.

Looks pretty good tonight.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Looks like the one to worry about will be the one following TD6. Seems something might also brew up in the GOM, models keep hinting on something there from a split low within the next week.
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how do I post an image?
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
1800. markot
straight west....
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
Quoting calder:
BEEE AAAA UTIFUL. Looks like I called it last night. TD now. Funny reading back over the nights blog activity, the kids didn't know whether to wet their pants over the TD renumber or cry because it's curving out to see. Caught in two minds...


It was interesting lol.. Did you see the part at 8AM when they lowered the chances from 40% to 30%? (before raising it way up to 60 at 2PM and then renumbering it) That killed a few people :P
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Chuck, careful with that, you know you'll get ripped here for it. It was a phenomenon that I haven't seen since Katrina/Gustav.
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Quoting A4Guy:
If you add the NHC forecast track overlays to the sat images...TD6 looks to be right on track...moving WNW.

Personally...I never understand how a trough thousands of miles away can exert enough of an influence to recurve a storm...but it happens all the time, so it must. I guess it creates enough weakness and becomes the path of least resistance for the storm to follow.


Its all fluid dynamics - nice avatar by the way - Jersey born and bred myself
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1771. HadesGodWyvern 8:22 PM CDT on August 21, 2010

wouldn't Depression Five be near Georgia or South Carolina?



Hades, I dunno - haven't been looking at stuff much, but had some time and peeked in this evening to see 06 getting it together and saw that, and just figured that was part of the same mess that just won't go away.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
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1794. Ryuujin
Quoting JLPR2:


Exactly!


Why does it to me look like the center of the circulation is well south of where the NHC thinks it is in this picture then?

http://i33.tinypic.com/16koviu.jpg

Can anyone tell me how to post a pic like you guys do? XD
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Quoting calder:
BEEE AAAA UTIFUL. Looks like I called it last night. TD now. Funny reading back over the nights blog activity, the kids didn't know whether to wet their pants over the TD renumber or cry because it's curving out to see. Caught in two minds...


Out to see what?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:

Beautiful.
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1791. markot
DONT LOOK AT models, look at real sat. photos plz...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Please remind me, why are we posting advisories from a hurricane 6 years ago?


Because, TD6 is in the same situation.
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1789. scott39
Quoting markot:
look at the LOOPS.
look at post 1775-you can see the N tug on TD6.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting JLPR2:
NHC says there is a north component, so I dont get why you guys are seeing it moving west.

AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD
AL, 06, 2010082200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 323W, 25, 1008, TD

Doesn't look west to me, maybe WNW.


Yup Slightly WNW it is :)
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Quoting LADobeLady:
I freely admit I'm a fishwishcaster...so please all west casters shhhh


Lady

I was on earlier telling the folks that I hadn't had ant hills like i saw today while mowing since about 10 days before gustav
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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