95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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TPW reveals a well-defined circulation.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1885. smuldy
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I don't know, but I find it to be too, err... straight. :)
still has plenty of time to start jogging northward before the tracks would need to adjust too much, and if it does keep growing quickly that should help it pull poleward
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
1884. bappit
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Who said the NHC is stupid? Apparently disagreements aren't allowed...

"blindly follow" qualifies.

Edit: plus "without thinking twice" for the bonus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I'm more worried about this beast...



Remember in fluid dynamics, you have to "fast-forward" the two troughs (as per Dr. Masters' review) across the Atlantic. 1) it's a bit too far north to be "guaranteed"; 2) the future Danielle will take energy from this "next one"; and 3) the troughs -- above usual in strength for August -- will likely curve it north too, but earlier.
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1881. Levi32
Quoting JRRP:

ok
may be i am confused


One could really make an argument either way because the exact surface center is hard to pin down on satellite....mid-level center is so broad that it's hard to see.
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06L is rotating nicely along as it continues westward motion. PGI34L looking vigorous, let's see if it can maintain convection after it hits the water.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1878. pcola57
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
XTRP says NW motion...um no, that ain't happenin'.


I agree Miami..
Looks like a movent to the south a bit earlier and westward bound to me...IMO
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1877. Levi32
Quoting bappit:

It is tropical depression bingo time! If you are playing along at home, find that "NHC is stupid" square and fill it in!


Already did....but it's hatched not filled in. Sometimes they do dumb things, most of the time they don't.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
XTRP says NW motion...um no, that ain't happenin'.

I don't know, but I find it to be too, err... straight. :)
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1875. JRRP
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I see due west and its pretty clear, look at the 11N line, it is moving right along it

ok
may be i am confused
pero no veo un oeste franco como dicen algunos
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6209
1873. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:
http://i33.tinypic.com/16koviu.jpg

I've done that and it doesn't work so far. Maybe I'm just to dense atm.
are you getting the popup for the url? if not try cutting and pasting this into text img src="http://whateveryoururlis.xx" alt="" /> and add a < before img src= (it wont showup in my post otherwise since it thinks its blank code
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
1872. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Had some nasty storms blow through here, did they get you?
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Quoting bappit:

It is tropical depression bingo time! If you are playing along at home, find that "NHC is stupid" square and fill it in!
Who said the NHC is stupid? Apparently disagreements aren't allowed...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:
Initial motion really depends on where you pick the center to track. I'd say the motion is just north of due west but nowhere as much northerly component as the models say there should be.


Combine this with # 1853, and this about respectfully sums it up. Everyone is seeing it correctly, ironically. 70% W, 30% WNW. 11 pm NHC should adjust it slightly further south. However, 11 pm NHC will likely turn the last prog point further north due to acceleration into the trough late week.
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1869. xcool




30k .center closed
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1868. bappit
Quoting Levi32:


Expected....I hope someday the NHC doesn't blindly follow the short-term model consensus without thinking twice about it.

It is tropical depression bingo time! If you are playing along at home, find that "NHC is stupid" square and fill it in!
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1867. Ryuujin
http://i33.tinypic.com/16koviu.jpg
Quoting smuldy:
click image after copying image url (right click image and select save image location) hit ctrl+v to paste url then leave other fields blank-voila


I've done that and it doesn't work so far. Maybe I'm just to dense atm.
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1866. Grothar
It's a big blob coming off of the African continent.

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XTRP says NW motion...um no, that ain't happenin'.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting washingtonian115:
If you look closley,and a wide range image of the atlantic,and east pacific,you'll notice that T.D 9-E,and T.D 6 are across from each other.No really go look for yourselfs.


TD 9E is actually a little bit farther north, but there's nothing special about this lol.
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Quoting Levi32:
Initial motion really depends on where you pick the center to track. I'd say the motion is just north of due west but nowhere as much northerly component as the models say there should be.


Agreed
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Quoting FLdewey:
Clearly it's not moving east.

Clearly.

I mean that's just plain clear.

Am I clear?

Clearly.
Whats the matter? Need new glasses? You are clearly being deceived by a temporary wobble.
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Quoting JRRP:

i see wnw motion... trust me :)
Link


I see due west and its pretty clear, look at the 11N line, it is moving right along it
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1860. Levi32
Initial motion really depends on where you pick the center to track. I'd say the motion is just north of due west but nowhere as much northerly component as the models say there should be.
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Quoting tkeith:
needs more Jason commentary...JMO.

and he didn't say FISH even one time :(
:'(. He didn't even sing. I was hoping for some on screen dancing or something...maybe seeing him drink a cup of coffee, but just some weather stuff and a song made me sad.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
If you look closley,and a wide range image of the atlantic,and east pacific,you'll notice that T.D 9-E,and T.D 6 are across from each other.No really go look for yourselfs.
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Quoting AFCriskDOTCOM:
Actually looks like the first few jogs were west, then WNW, then the last jog was west. So it's wobbling between W and WNW.


That's exactly what I see.

Lots of W, slight jog WNW, continuing on W.
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1855. JRRP
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you are using the CATL loop, how about using the floater where you can have the degree markers much better

its clearly moving due West

i see wnw motion... trust me :)
Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6209
Actually looks like the first few jogs were west, then WNW, then the last jog was west. So it's wobbling between W and WNW.
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1852. tkeith
Quoting aquak9:
cool music, jason
needs more Jason commentary...JMO.

and he didn't say FISH even one time :(
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
1851. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:


No, south of the points. At least from the pic I tried to post. Have no idea how to do it, however. Any clues? Sorry for being a newb.
click image after copying image url (right click image and select save image location) hit ctrl+v to paste url then leave other fields blank-voila
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
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1849. aquak9
cool music, jason
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Quoting JRRP:
is moving WNW
Link


you are using the CATL loop, how about using the floater where you can have the degree markers much better

its clearly moving due West
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Interesting area of convection moving south just offshore Florida.
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after looking at the sat it seem that the COC of TD6 would be at 11.1N 32.7W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
1843. JRRP
is moving WNW
Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6209
TD#6 (future CAT 2 Hurricane Danielle) will likely go 325 mi east of Bermuda next Saturday. That trough is going to be strong (it's part of the huge Hudson Bay storm), plus the subtropical storm that will form off VA by mid-week will help push future Danielle further eastward.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
The circulation appears to be near 11N 33W, evidently south of forecast points. Also going a bit quicker than forecasted.

Your eyes are a lot better than mine 'cause I can not find a center on that satellite.
Look at the loop and speed it up. Now that you did that notice where the center of rotation is...where all the clouds are moving cyclonically. You'll see it near 11N 33W and moving due west.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1839. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, tell Jason to do a video of it! Now that would be a classic!
I love comedies!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1838. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
yea the loop verifies it, the circulation is right along 11N and moving due west

pretty clearly too


Expected....I hope someday the NHC doesn't blindly follow the short-term model consensus without thinking twice about it.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Stormwatcher
You are very welcome. I truly admire you for the awesome photos of lightning you take.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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