95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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1936. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog slowed down big time. Guess everyone's on the NHC page pressing F5.
nhc wont update for 20mins yet, just little new info to debate as yet, and for me red sox in extra innings
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1935. angiest
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
KEEP YER EYE ON THE HIGH


GFS seems to have this TC pushing the high around.
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Quoting angiest:


I haven't had a chance to look in the last day.
If cyberteddy ever comes back on then I think you can ask him for the model runs.Or TropicalAnalysis.
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1932. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog slowed down big time. Guess everyone's on the NHC page pressing F5.

lol
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1931. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WAITIN ON ELEVEN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53517
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog slowed down big time. Guess everyone's on the NHC page pressing F5.
Not me, I prefer to read it 12 times, right here...
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1929. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
1928. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
KEEP YER EYE ON THE HIGH
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53517
Blog slowed down big time. Guess everyone's on the NHC page pressing F5.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
1926. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST August 22 2010
===============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 115.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
Quoting bwt1982:
W or WNW, does it really matter? Its going out to sea! I have never seen people bicker so much.


Actually, it does matter, because tthere's a good chance this doesn't recurve and go west (like a few models are showing).
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1924. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting bwt1982:
W or WNW, does it really matter? Its going out to sea! I have never seen people bicker so much.


Does not matter at all, so what would you like to discuss tonight?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5270
Quoting bappit:

Ummm, yeah. Check out the PREDICT MIMIC TPW.


Ummm, yeah, proves my point. A well-defined circulation near 11N 33W.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
1921. bappit
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TPW reveals a well-defined circulation.


Ummm, yeah. Check out the PREDICT MIMIC TPW.


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1919. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
1918. angiest
Quoting washingtonian115:
Some of the models were starting to latch on to it this afternoon/evening.


I haven't had a chance to look in the last day.
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1917. Ryuujin
Quoting smuldy:
per Ryuunjin,thats the one you wanted to post right?
thats the one you wanted to post right?


Yes, thank you =)
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1916. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:


http://i33.tinypic.com/16koviu.jpg
posted above
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting angiest:


I guess that's the one some of the long range models have been developing from time to time. Not enough consistency (actually none).
Some of the models were starting to latch on to it this afternoon/evening.
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1914. angiest
Quoting bwt1982:
W or WNW, does it really matter? Its going out to sea! I have never seen people bicker so much.


That remains to be seen.
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1913. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/TD/D/XX
MARK
11.47N/33.13W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53517
1912. Levi32
The whole initial motion being different from all the models thing with TD 6 is exactly the same as what we harped on with TS Colin. The same thing happened where the models were too far north with the short-term movement, but that didn't prevent the storm from recurving, so nobody panic lol. As I will continue stressing though, Bermuda has to watch this storm more closely than anyone else.
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Lots of storms sitting just north of Grand Bahama tonight.


Link
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1910. Ryuujin
Quoting smuldy:
what is the url i can just post it for you


http://i33.tinypic.com/16koviu.jpg
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1909. bwt1982
W or WNW, does it really matter? Its going out to sea! I have never seen people bicker so much.
Member Since: September 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
Quoting Levi32:


That's not the tropical wave that's an MCC. Not every blob of big convection over Africa is a tropical wave. The wave axis is back off to the east a bit, and won't be approaching the African coast for another 24-48 hours.
Hmmm, no wonder the pouch is all the way back by central Burkina Faso.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
1907. Vero1
.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
1905. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:
http://i33.tinypic.com/16koviu.jpg

I've done that and it doesn't work so far. Maybe I'm just to dense atm.
per Ryuunjin,thats the one you wanted to post right?
thats the one you wanted to post right?
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If they keep rolling off one after the other like that and develop just might make the forecast numbers. CaribWx says some models predict four storms to form int the next two weeks.
We already have 06L. Several models predict a trof-split that later turns into a tropical cyclone, so that's 07L. Then, the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS develop PGI34L into a tropical cyclone so that's 08L. Things are definitely picking up, and a stop, well, that may not come for another month or two.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
I think we'll have a tropical storm out of T.D 6 by at least tomorrow afternoon,and a hurricane by late monday/tuesday evening.I think this forecast is'nt to bad.
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1902. Levi32
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
i do not like that very big blob coming off of the African continent. wow its so big. i never see a tropical wave that big before.


That's not the tropical wave that's an MCC. Not every blob of big convection over Africa is a tropical wave. The wave axis is back off to the east a bit, and won't be approaching the African coast for another 24-48 hours.
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My best guess on TS Danielle is 11AM tomorrow. 11PM 30 mph, 5AM 35 mph, 11AM 40-45mph. Meaningless guesses FTW
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1900. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:
Bwah, I give up :D
what is the url i can just post it for you
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I'm more worried about this beast...



As you should be. I think this is the one the GFS was picking up on after the current L. In fact, the past model had the blob coming off of Africa, delvelop and head much further west. (yesterday model run). Who knows, but I would think the 6L heading nw would create a weak area for others to follow. Happened a few seasons ago.
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1898. 7544
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
i do not like that very big blob coming off of the African continent. wow its so big. i never see a tropical wave that big before.


wow agree withyou never saw one that huge this early in the game things are stsrting to pick up now
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1897. angiest
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay who brought the beast out of it's cage?.But again this is the one to worry about right here.It will be forced southward once the ridge builds back in over the atlantic.


I guess that's the one some of the long range models have been developing from time to time. Not enough consistency (actually none).
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
06L is rotating nicely along as it continues westward motion. PGI34L looking vigorous, let's see if it can maintain convection after it hits the water.

If they keep rolling off one after the other like that and develop just might make the forecast numbers. CaribWx says some models predict four storms to form int the next two weeks.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8322
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TPW reveals a well-defined circulation.



It looks like TS Danielle. Whether or not we'll see that announced by the NHC at 11 pm Eastern is the big question. But you are right: circulation is great.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
I'm more worried about this beast...

Okay who brought the beast out of it's cage?.But again this is the one to worry about right here.It will be forced southward once the ridge builds back in over the atlantic.
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1893. Levi32
Quoting bappit:

"blindly follow" qualifies.

Edit: plus "without thinking twice" for the bonus.


I'm pleased to be racking up the bonus points.
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1892. Levi32
Quoting CaneFears:
Levi, it's pouring down here in MIA tonight.


Nice :)
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1891. Ryuujin
Bwah, I give up :D
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Quoting bappit:

"blindly follow" qualifies.
next bingo block
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1888. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


One could really make an argument either way because the exact surface center is hard to pin down on satellite....mid-level center is so broad that it's hard to see.

is true
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TPW reveals a well-defined circulation.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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