95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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1986. RMCF
Quoting atmoaggie:
? Their track at 17 UTC yesterday didn't call for 15 N until after 19 UTC today.

GFS at one point had the storm coming off africa at 15n about a week ago you love identifying problems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've been busy and haven't looked at the storm all day until a minute ago. Looks to this eye to have placed itself in a near perfect spot, with nice moisture flowing for hundreds of miles in 2 beautiful East-West and West-East bands north and south of the system. Even starting to fire up in the center in the last few hours. I know people here generally tend to downcast these things, but I see this as Cat4 at least. And quickly too(for such a large system). This looks like it could get it's large act completely together within 72 hours. fwiw.
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Now, I'll go back and see what others have had to say. brb
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TropicalAnalysis may you post the model runs please thanks.
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now I see a slight WNW movement

between W and WNW really
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7813
Quoting Hurricanes101:


its nowhere near 15N is it?
It's at 11N, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
HWRF too.



GFS as well.
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To curve or not to curve that is the question!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Watch for 15/50 people. If it gets to 50 south of 15, perhaps recurve is out of the equation.


Same thing for 60W 20N
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
1974. angiest
Quoting StormW:




I must say, LBAR is most interesting.
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Quoting canehater1:
120 hr NOGAPS very interesting in SW Carribean

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml


Is it finally gonna get its storm?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
? Their track at 17 UTC yesterday didn't call for 15 N until after 19 UTC today.


its nowhere near 15N is it?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7813
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storm..


Am No Sure a Got a Bad Feeling that it might not be a Fish
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120 hr NOGAPS very interesting in SW Carribean

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml
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Night StormW, I need some sleep as well.
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1963. angiest
Quoting StormW:


BAMS-BAMM


What about the PEBLS model?
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Quoting StormW:


BAMS-BAMM
HWRF too.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting RMCF:
fish what ? If the models were right this thing would be @ 15n or higher by now.
? Their track at 17 UTC yesterday didn't call for 15 N until after 19 UTC today.
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this will not be a fish if this keeps moveing W
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
In the am today a lot of paople where ready write the season off and where saying all the models where wrong!! Now the the models are dead on.I like what Storms says the models are good for 72 hrs
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Quoting StormW:
Just dropping in to say good night to all.


Night Storm!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
1954. angiest
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
TD 6 = fish


For at least the next 4 days or so that is correct.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Actually, it does matter, because tthere's a good chance this doesn't recurve and go west (like a few models are showing).


which models are not showing a recurve?
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1951. RMCF
fish what ? If the models were right this thing would be @ 15n or higher by now.
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TD 6 = fish
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1949. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, here's my prediction:

8 public advisories.
3 forecast advisories.
6 forecast discussions.
20+ cones.
78 posts of people taking the western portion of the cone (I'll probably be one of those, lol).


I guess call me a caution caster. I'll take the west end out of caution until I see the particular feature that will keep it out to sea.
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1948. Ryuujin
Quoting StormW:
Just dropping in to say good night to all.


Night Storm! Take care!
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1946. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting washingtonian115:
If cyberteddy ever comes back on then I think you can ask him for the model runs.Or TropicalAnalysis.


I'm on!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
Night StormW
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7813
1943. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, here's my prediction:

8 public advisories.
3 forecast advisories.
6 forecast discussions.
20+ cones.
78 posts of people taking the western portion of the cone (I'll probably be one of those, lol).
don't forget 57 1 word posts reading only 'fish' or a derivation thereof lol
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
Quoting StormW:
Just dropping in to say good night to all.
G'night Storm!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormW:
Just dropping in to say good night to all.
Nighty Night. Did you brush your teeth...and floss?
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1940. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting atmoaggie:
Not me, I prefer to read it 12 times, right here...
LOL, here's my prediction:

8 public advisories.
3 forecast advisories.
6 forecast discussions.
20+ cones.
78 posts of people taking the western portion of the cone (I'll probably be one of those, lol).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1937. angiest
Quoting washingtonian115:
If cyberteddy ever comes back on then I think you can ask him for the model runs.Or TropicalAnalysis.


I just looks at the most recent GFS and Euro. Not sure I believe the setup in those runs.
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1936. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog slowed down big time. Guess everyone's on the NHC page pressing F5.
nhc wont update for 20mins yet, just little new info to debate as yet, and for me red sox in extra innings
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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