95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2086. will45
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Which is why 72 plus hour forecasts are unreliable. Heck, our locals here in Palm Beach can't even get a 24 hour rain forecast right. W to WNW for now, critical point will be around 45W and what happens from there on out.


yea if it is still going WNW around 50W i think we have a problem
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Quoting reedzone:


Great post man, same here, this reminds me alot of Pre-Frances, TD6 of 2004. Whats interesting is that the GFS has shifted extremely westward on the 18Z, I'm interested to see the 00Z runs. Also the HWRF model takes a sharp westward bend in the end. I'm not confident, never was on this moving safely out to sea.
Hey, I wish u and Twink would stop mentioning Frances. I'd like to sleep tonight, and IF this turns out to have a Frances-like track, Tuesday is good enough for me to know..... and start having nightmares....

Getting rained on in the Bahamas already....
BAHA
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2084. Melagoo
Quoting atmoaggie:
The change in track forecasts, advisories 1 and 2:



Looks like the Bermuda deflector is finally in place now
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Game face on is right.
This is the most impressive thing we've seen yet, imo.
Maybe the real deal.
Let's hope it's a fish storm.
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2082. aquak9
2077- thanks destin. I always prefered the rgb over everything else to discern layers, esp in slo-mo.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
finally a system where the COC is discernible even to an amateur

11/34 (roughly)

Link



TD6 surely has it's game face on tonight. Battling some dry air it seems, in the eastern quad, shear may be kicking a bit too.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You mean, starting in 20 minutes right?


Oh, didnt know it's that late already, time flies!
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Quoting reedzone:


Great post man, same here, this reminds me alot of Pre-Frances, TD6 of 2004. Whats interesting is that the GFS has shifted extremely westward on the 18Z, I'm interested to see the 00Z runs. Also the HWRF model takes a sharp westward bend in the end. I'm not confident, never was on this moving safely out to sea.



Which is why 72 plus hour forecasts are unreliable. Heck, our locals here in Palm Beach can't even get a 24 hour rain forecast right. W to WNW for now, critical point will be around 45W and what happens from there on out.
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2075. aquak9
Quoting smuldy:
far from land on a 2am graveyard weekend shift i give a near 0% chance of weather intern working tonight naming the storm warranted or not


depends on if he's drinking decaf or regular
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Quoting DestinJeff:


you know I'm just messing around with the "homanislander"


I do indeed LMAO. What a day !
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Quoting reedzone:


Notice the GFS shifted after TD6 was classified.. I'm interested to see the 00Z in a few hours.


Yes I did notice, that's why I said it lol.
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Quoting reedzone:


Notice the GFS shifted after TD6 was classified.. I'm interested to see the 00Z in a few hours.


You mean, starting in 20 minutes right?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
2071. smuldy
Quoting DestinJeff:
no doubt to me we have D at 5, perhaps at the two
far from land on a 2am graveyard weekend shift i give a near 0% chance of weather intern working tonight naming the storm warranted or not
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
Quoting caneswatch:
What if GFS is showing a sign, that it will continue moving west in future runs?


Notice the GFS shifted after TD6 was classified.. I'm interested to see the 00Z in a few hours.
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Back tomorrow. Have a good evening folks.
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What if GFS is showing a sign, that it will continue moving west in future runs?
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Quoting Chicklit:

Impressive structure from what it was yesterday.
That was quick.


It was quick in a relative sense but if you look back a couple of days the underlying conditions favoured it. The upper level support was marginal but it managed to mix out the dry air during the middle of the day. At that point, it didn't matter that overhead was not optimal.
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Banding continues to improve. Likely to be Danielle at 5a.m.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2063. WxLogic
Quoting StormW:
Just looking at the track map here on WU...I really have no problem with the track to Monday, except a little more of a westward component...I like the way it has it bending left at first...based on satellite loop imagery. It's still not moving like it shows in the track map though...I'd say right now, about 275...280 is pushing the envelope, but could be close.

I kinda see what's going on....the weakness in the steering layer mean is a little larger tonight, and a big weakness over all in almost mid level, as that's where the dry air is if you notice in water vapor...you can see the overall motion of the dry air north of TD6...combine that with the flow on the western periphery of the eastern ridge. That's my take...anyway. Good night.

LOOP

IR2 LOOP



Jeje... almost read my mind.
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It's a stretch. But, I'm kind of wondering if #5's little brother to the NE might be far enough north to help to get sucked into the trough, even a weaker than modeled one, and pave the way for #5 to follow. But, I suspect must likely it'll get the pants sheared off of it from outflow long before then.
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2059. aquak9
hiya Baja- we got lotsa rumblers and strobe light effects here at Rainman's house, but only a drizzle. JAX NWS, on the other hand, took a lightning bolt to it's radar and we are DOWN.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know, he was saying that the GFS doesn't recurve it anymore...it does recurve it, just towards Bermuda.


clearly
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
2057. xcool
EXTENDED...TUE THROUGH FRI...ATLC RIDGE BUILDS OVER S FLA WITH A
DEEP SE WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS INTERIOR
AND W WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING POPS E COAST. POPS BECOMING
NEAR NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NWS Miami
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting kmanislander:


We do. It got aggressive from this morning and here we are.

Impressive structure from what it was yesterday.
That was quick.
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look at the latest loops firing on all cylinders now.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


TD 6 was Frances, she didnt recurve until she hit Florida
I know, he was saying that the GFS doesn't recurve it anymore...it does recurve it, just towards Bermuda.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2053. aquak9
Quoting Surfcropper:
Could be hurricane by Tuesday?


clearly
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Quoting DestinJeff:
TS at 5 am.

West-casting may subside overnight, but conditions appear favorable beginning tomorrow morning for continued westcasting through the 3 day period. After that, model consistency should begin to break down the weak westcasters allowing the curvecasters to gain a foothold.

$$
Rasta Homer (homanislander)

LOL!!!!
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hey, I see we have a player this evening.
TD6
Link


We do. It got aggressive from this morning and here we are.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It did recurve it, but towards Bermuda.


TD 6 was Frances, she didnt recurve until she hit Florida
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7826
2049. WxLogic
Good Evening... a quick drop before getting some zzz...

SAL:

Current SAL to the N and NW of TD#6 should keep it in check for the time being. Definitely, should be getting to TS status, but not too high until this the dry air to its N and NW regions are modified:



Shear:

Is currently not very conductive to a quick or rapid intensification... so this will be another factor keeping its intensity down:



Steering:

As you can see TD#6 will be on a general W to WNW track at least for the next 48hrs... it can also be noted the easterly shear jet induced by the SAL to the N of TD#6:



In all... it's interesting to see the evolution of the TROF (weakness) in the eastern CONUS depicted in the Steering maps. If TD#6 delays its strengthening longer than expected then anything goes.
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Quoting Twinkster:
I saw you guys bashing others about comparing this to Hurricane Frances earlier and that makes me angry. Open your eyes: track nearly identical, discussion sounds similar, and long term synoptic pattern is similar. The 18z GFS shows a ballooning ridge any slowdown such as the NHC is referring to in 11 advisory should be seen as a bad thing for eastern seaboard.

I typically don't like to compare storms but this reminds me of Hurricane Frances and the similarities become more evident every with every discussion and every model run


Great post man, same here, this reminds me alot of Pre-Frances, TD6 of 2004. Whats interesting is that the GFS has shifted extremely westward on the 18Z, I'm interested to see the 00Z runs. Also the HWRF model takes a sharp westward bend in the end. I'm not confident, never was on this moving safely out to sea.
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Hey, I see we have a player this evening.
TD6
Link
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


your looking at them in the wrong order lol

the track shifted NE

lol
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Quoting reedzone:
Models are starting to split on the long range, which is what I expected earlier today. The GFS does not have it recurving, instead, heads to Bermuda, then north to Canada. It also has a strong ridge over it for quite a while. Remember TD6 form 2004? It was expected to recurve, but the opposite happened. Bermuda needs to monitor this closely, but the East Coast as of now should just "eye" it once in a while for any changes. Models are starting to hint on a stronger ridge, weaker trough, which is why Bermuda needs to pay close attention.
It did recurve it, but towards Bermuda.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting reedzone:
Models are starting to split on the long range, which is what I expected earlier today. The GFS does not have it recurving, instead, heads to Bermuda, then north to Canada. It also has a strong ridge over it for quite a while. Remember TD6 form 2004? It was expected to recurve, but the opposite happened. Bermuda needs to monitor this closely, but the East Coast as of now should just "eye" it once in a while for any changes. Models are starting to hint on a stronger ridge, weaker trough, which is why Bermuda needs to pay close attention.


+1
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting PRweathercenter:
that's a shift of 40 -50 miles further south


your looking at them in the wrong order lol

the track shifted NE
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7826
Evening everyone. Just got in.



There seems to be a lot of moisture in the W ATL.... currently raining w/thunderstorms here. Got back in just intime.... lol

I noticed while I was out that we now have TD-6, and that NHC is looking for Danielle sometime tomorrow. This should make for an interesting week. I'm not at all surprised by the initial advisory, except for the comment about shear in the 3-5 day period. Where did THAT come from? [I thought the TUTT was supposed to have moved out by then, especially since one of the ULLs is currently overhead...]

Oh, and I see the Dolphins took the rain with them to JAX.... hope Aqua is getting some rain up thatta way....
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Quoting StormW:


Let's hope. I just looked at water vapor, and I still don't see it on the horizon...the deep one.

For some reason, I just can't buy the GFS (right hand map)



Se you all tomorrow sometime.


I know what you mean. Too soon to say for sure. I'm kind of beat from travelling so will be turning in now. Catch up tomorrow.
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2039. angiest
It is worth noting:


96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.5N 51.5W 90 KT

Ike was at a similar location as a much stronger storm, and started moving SW shortly thereafter, still as a much stronger storm.

Not all deep storms go north.
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Models are starting to split on the long range, which is what I expected earlier today. The GFS does not have it recurving, instead, heads to Bermuda, then north to Canada. It also has a strong ridge over it for quite a while. Remember TD6 form 2004? It was expected to recurve, but the opposite happened. Bermuda needs to monitor this closely, but the East Coast as of now should just "eye" it once in a while for any changes. Models are starting to hint on a stronger ridge, weaker trough, which is why Bermuda needs to pay close attention.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.