95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, rapid weakening. It isn't rapidly weakening, it actually is slightly organizing with the circulation shifting under the convection.


I can see why they have the weakening flag on but not rapid weakening. They had the weakening flag on for Alex nearly it's entire lifetime lol, so it's not the most reliable source to determine whether a system is weakening or not. But I do believe that 06L has been weakening this morning but it may be trying to come back now.
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3434. IKE
Quoting Grothar:


TropicalAnalyst is a friend of mine. We tease each other all the time. No, I did not miss the point. I am quite well aware of the sequential posting of the different runs given in Zulu time, and the comparisons of the different models from which one may infer the difference in information we are provided. But thank you for the clarification.


To quote an overused word on here.....

ouch!
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The long-range GFS has been consistent on developing a system in the BOC for a few runs now. It has also gone back and forth with PGI34L.
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3432. pottery
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Ouch we've got the rapid weakening flag. The environment still is just not ready to pop yet due to shear and dry air. Although shear already seems to be on the decrease around the system and as MH09 pointed out the circulation looks to be filling in a little and trying to get back under those clouds.

But check the Water Vapour images.....
lots of dry stuff west and north still.
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Quoting Grothar:


TropicalAnalyst is a friend of mine. We tease each other all the time. No, I did not miss the point. I am quite well aware of the sequential posting of the different runs given in Zulu time, and the comparisons of the different models from which one may infer the difference in information we are provided. But thank you for the clarification.


:P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Ouch we've got the rapid weakening flag. The environment still is just not ready to pop yet due to shear and dry air. Although shear already seems to be on the decrease around the system and as MH09 pointed out the circulation looks to be filling in a little and trying to get back under those clouds.
Lol, rapid weakening. It isn't rapidly weakening, it actually is slightly organizing with the circulation shifting under the convection.
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3428. Grothar
Quoting Hurricanes101:


You seem to have missed the point, these are the images of the 12Z run that is coming out now, he posted them so that when the GFS updates to that point it will show up


TropicalAnalyst is a friend of mine. We tease each other all the time. No, I did not miss the point. I am quite well aware of the sequential posting of the different runs given in Zulu time, and the comparisons of the different models from which one may infer the difference in information we are provided. But thank you for the clarification.
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Anyone wanting TD6 to stay weak will get bitten pretty darn good if it does. A weaker system (as shown a few days ago on the ECMWF) would advance more westward until it reaches favorable conditions in the Bahamas, nice warm shallow water, then it would really start to strengthen. I'm rooting for TD6 to intensify quickly and move on out to sea.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23573
3426. Patrap
Well the first much hyped CV Thrilla pops up and away foul and is caught.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting hunkerdown:
like to wager, say some of your best cookies...
I'll wager 10 of my best cookies that the canes end up with a better record at the end of the season than the gators. Remember.
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Ouch we've got the rapid weakening flag. The environment still is just not ready to pop yet due to shear and dry air. Although shear already seems to be on the decrease around the system and as MH09 pointed out the circulation looks to be filling in a little and trying to get back under those clouds.
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Last four GFS model cycles, red is the one just completed.


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I ain't goin' there...it's not like UF is gonna do better. :)
like to wager, say some of your best cookies...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At 16:15 UTC the circulation of 06L is advecting WNW under the clouds.



I have a feeling at 5PM, we will see TS Danielle.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
3418. Patrap
I told dee couple down da street anyway..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting connie1976:
Do you think that this going to be a "fish" storm....or rather is this going to stay away from South Florida?


To answer your question, South Florida is at low risk at the moment from this system, some of the models have back off on a full recurvature with some now aiming the TD at Bermuda. Of course things can change and probably will so just watch the TD in the upcoming days if any significant track changes occur.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5153
3416. pottery
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Let me rephrase this: I don't consider him old but a veteran WU blogger. Sorry Press if you are lurking.

Well dont feel the need to appologise.
Some of us here know he is as old as dirt...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At 16:15 UTC the circulation of 06L is advecting WNW under the clouds.



shhhh dont tell the "decoupling crowd"
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At 16:15 UTC the circulation of 06L is advecting WNW under the clouds.

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Quoting Grothar:


Nice X's you posted there. My images may be one day old, but at least you can see them. LOL
Boy, and they talk about old people. Thought you youngsters had this image thing nailed down. Want to try posting them again?


They are X's right now. But check back in about 5 minutes, they'll be loading in. :)

Something I thought of.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
3412. breald
Quoting Grothar:


Tough crowd today! LOL


Tell me about it. It's all good.
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3411. IKE
Gone on the 12Z GFS...it's way further north. Maybe this threatens Bermuda or Nova Scotia.


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Quoting Grothar:


Nice X's you posted there. My images may be one day old, but at least you can see them. LOL
Boy, and they talk about old people. Thought you youngsters had this image thing nailed down. Want to try posting them again?


Grothar they appear as the GFS run continues dont worry :p
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Quoting Grothar:


Nice X's you posted there. My images may be one day old, but at least you can see them. LOL
Boy, and they talk about old people. Thought you youngsters had this image thing nailed down. Want to try posting them again?


You seem to have missed the point, these are the images of the 12Z run that is coming out now, he posted them so that when the GFS updates to that point it will show up
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3408. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
AL062010
==============

2010AUG22 160000
CI: T2.9
1001
43.0
T2.5
Adjusted T2.4
Raw T2.4
Weakening Flag: ON
Rapid Weakening: FLG
SHEAR


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Quoting Grothar:


Saw a comment from someone else whether you were referring to 1904 or 2004. I wasn't even in the country in 1904. LOL

I was a lurker in 2005 and then became a stalker in 2009. I didn't get enough abuse from my wife, so I figured I would come on here and be abused by strangers. Softens the blow. LOL
OMG now that sounds about right LMAO

Quoting Baybuddy:
Hey Taco!
Well Good Morning almost afternoon my Friend good to see you on here today....
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Quoting Grothar:


Saw a comment from someone else whether you were referring to 1904 or 2004. I wasn't even in the country in 1904. LOL

I was a lurker in 2005 and then became a stalker in 2009. I didn't get enough abuse from my wife, so I figured I would come on here and be abused by strangers. Softens the blow. LOL


Right, after reading about the civil war you decided to wait at least 50 years, just in case it started up again. I kid of course :)
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


But Look whats north of it, 3 1025mb blocking highs...
And it still sends it northward. Let's see what else it shows because I doubt that it'll keep going northward.
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3404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/TD/XX
MARK
12.98N/34.21W



EXPOSED AT THE MOMENT
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looks like 34L is in the water now
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Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Speaking of older ones, where has Presslord been? Is he too busy with Portlight?


Let me rephrase this: I don't consider him old but a veteran WU blogger. Sorry Press if you are lurking.
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3401. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z GFS Hour: 204



12z GFS Hour: 216



12z GFS Hour: 228



12z GFS Hour: 240



12z GFS Hour: 252



12z GFS Hour: 264



12z GFS Hour: 276



12z GFS Hour: 288



12z GFS Hour: 300



12z GFS Hour: 312



12z GFS Hour: 324



12z GFS Hour: 336



12z GFS Hour 348:



12z GFS Hour: 360



12z GFS Hour: 372



12z GFS Hour: 384



Nice X's you posted there. My images may be one day old, but at least you can see them. LOL
Boy, and they talk about old people. Thought you youngsters had this image thing nailed down. Want to try posting them again?
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3399. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


What is this, "Pick on Old People's Day?"


Well it itsa gonna be pick on NOLA week so I'd thought I'd get me one in before the avalanche.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
3398. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Saw a comment from someone else whether you were referring to 1904 or 2004. I wasn't even in the country in 1904. LOL

I was a lurker in 2005 and then became a stalker in 2009. I didn't get enough abuse from my wife, so I figured I would come on here and be abused by strangers. Softens the blow. LOL

heheheheh, that's Good!
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I guess we can throw the model runs out until they get new fix on the center due to the unexpected northward movement.
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3396. IKE
Quoting hurricane23:
The odds in my personal view are extremely small this tropical system effects the extreme southeast. If i were in bermuda i'd be watching closely.


That's what weatherguy03 said in his forecast.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Moving quicker towards the north at 174 hours.


But Look whats north of it, 3 1025mb blocking highs...
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3393. IKE
Interesting that the GFS shows nothing else significant in the ATL through the next week.
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3392. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
That happened a lot in Jerusalem when they Quoted Jesus.

Grothar,,remember that One Roman Soldier and the wine thing?

Grothar still has a warrant I believe. So We all should avoid Rome still.


What is this, "Pick on Old People's Day?"
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The odds in my personal view are extremely small this tropical system effects the extreme southeast. If i were in bermuda i'd be watching closely.
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3390. pottery
Greetings again.
Good to see that the models are Consistent in their Inconsistency!
LOL.
Welcome to Tropical Weather...
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Moving quicker towards the north at 174 hours.
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Hey Taco!
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12z GFS Hour: 204



12z GFS Hour: 216



12z GFS Hour: 228



12z GFS Hour: 240



12z GFS Hour: 252



12z GFS Hour: 264



12z GFS Hour: 276



12z GFS Hour: 288



12z GFS Hour: 300



12z GFS Hour: 312



12z GFS Hour: 324



12z GFS Hour: 336



12z GFS Hour 348:



12z GFS Hour: 360



12z GFS Hour: 372



12z GFS Hour: 384

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Quoting taco2me61:

Yelp and most are the Newbies on here.... Have you noticed that most of the older ones in here just donot post as much anymore.... I know I don't, I just lurk from the back and watch....

Taco :o)



Speaking of older ones, where has Presslord been? Is he too busy with Portlight?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.