95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2135. aquak9
brush yer shoulders off

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Holy MOG Melagoo. That's a wave.
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Quoting Chicklit:
By the way, Jeff, I plus all of your posts.
I think art and artistry is an important part of life. The storm is 'coming together.'
I'm old enough to remember the Beatles.
A lot of people on here are not.
Oh well. Goodnight.
And yes, TD6 is packin some heat at the moment.
Is that violating community standards?


I +'s you too. I've have many days start off better because of the morning crew's selection of music.

Hopefully your part of FL is nicely rain cooled tonight. It great here on the west central coast!
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2132. Melagoo


Looks like another big wave right after TD 6 coming next
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Quoting Chicklit:
\
Yeah, it's 'comin' together Tazzz...
Oh well. winsome losesum.
No hard feelings.
Night all.




thats good
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Same pressure in 6 hours

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31892
Quoting BahaHurican:
But the vid link was to the CATL.... ????
\
Yeah, it's 'comin' together Tazzz...
Oh well. winsome losesum.
No hard feelings.
Night all.

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GFS got it right!!!!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31892
Quoting DestinJeff:
Admin quick on the trigger. Not a big Beatles fan, I suspect.

Music references to match the weather is a blog tradition.

Can you imagine if we did this kind of thing face to face? Talk about some boring conversations!

And TD6 of 2010 will not be TD6 of 2004, no matter how many times Reed suggests it.


What if it is? Please quit going off on Reed dude, it's in the exact same situation as TD6 of 2004, and it might go on a similar track.
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Quoting Chicklit:
By the way, Jeff, I plus all of your posts.
I think art and artistry is an important part of life. The storm is 'coming together.'
I'm old enough to remember the Beatles.
A lot of people on here are not.
Oh well. Goodnight.
And yes, TD6 is packin some heat at the moment.
Is that violating community standards?
It was kinda childish to report him to report you for no apparent reason.But don't worry about it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16827
2122. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
24 hour hand outs are next
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2121. angiest
Oh children.

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2120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
posts are being tagged and bagged
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2118. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 220300 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 05 INITIAL TIME 220300 UTC
00HR 16.3N 115.0E 1000HPA 16M/S (30 knots)
P12HR WNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 17.5N 112.0E 990HPA 23M/S= (45 knots)

---
so close to "35 knots"
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Admin quick on the trigger. Not a big Beatles fan, I suspect.

Music references to match the weather is a blog tradition.

Can you imagine if we did this kind of thing face to face? Talk about some boring conversations!

And TD6 of 2010 will not be TD6 of 2004, no matter how many times Reed suggests it.
But the vid link was to the CATL.... ????
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2092. +1
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Quoting Tazmanian:




re ported a long with him


He's right ya know.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31892
Quoting DestinJeff:
no doubt to me we have D at 5, perhaps at the two

Nah. It's Saturday night and 4000 miles away. They won't do anything at 2. They'll let us chill till morning. By 5 you're probably right. It could easily be a moderate TS at 11.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Taz, you post irresponsible statements and I post a video. I'm violating community standards and you're the cop who turns me in. Gimmeabreak.
Anyway, blessed night. It was a beautiful video. Glad I got to watch it. Twice.
I'm not figuring out WHY taz would be reporting in the first place. the vid looks fine to me.

+1 to you; -1 to taz...
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By the way, Jeff, I plus all of your posts.
I think art and artistry is an important part of life. The storm is 'coming together.'
I'm old enough to remember the Beatles.
A lot of people on here are not.
Oh well. Goodnight.
And yes, TD6 is packin some heat at the moment.
Is that violating community standards?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2108. aquak9
chicklit- I got banned for posting Recoon. So yeah, your video was not something bad. Should not have been a problem.

Brush your shoulder off- that's what I do :)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
.
Hey baha.IMO I think you still need to keep a watch on T.D 6 just in case it tries any slick tricks.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16827
2104. KYDan
COC appears, to my eyes to be at 11.7N and 32.6W.
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2102. aquak9
it's quiet here now baja, frogs chirpin' is about all. But yea, first halfway decent storm we've had in weeks.

thanks for asking. :)
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Model for the 18z GFS?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


?

She posted a satellite image...? How is that not pertinent to weather?


Have no clue
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31892
Quoting Tazmanian:



you been reported


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
???.I don't get it?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16827
2096. Melagoo


What is tailgating TD 6 ?
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Quoting aquak9:
hiya Baja- we got lotsa rumblers and strobe light effects here at Rainman's house, but only a drizzle. JAX NWS, on the other hand, took a lightning bolt to it's radar and we are DOWN.
Wow. Saw a couple of goodly strikes in the background during the rain-delay portion of the Dolphins-Jaguars game...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you been reported


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.


?

She posted a satellite image...? How is that not pertinent to weather?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting Tazmanian:



you been reported


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.


Oh, your off-topic sometimes talking about JFV, so why report her? You've been off=topic too...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31892
.
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Water temp hit 92 today at Naples pier.

Amazing how hot it is. It only feels good to get out of the water and have the breeze cool you down.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=NPSF1
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2088. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
A well developed cyclone such as TD6 ought to be able to make quick work of that though.
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2086. will45
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Which is why 72 plus hour forecasts are unreliable. Heck, our locals here in Palm Beach can't even get a 24 hour rain forecast right. W to WNW for now, critical point will be around 45W and what happens from there on out.


yea if it is still going WNW around 50W i think we have a problem
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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