95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Nice developing curve band.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm already throwing out the 00z GFS.
why is that if you don't mind? tia
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Quoting angiest:


Interspersed with runs showing very strong troughs, GFS has shown very weak lows turning this storm. Something isn't right with those.


Agreed. I could easily see this recurving eventually, but not as soon as the models are saying. Trofs are too weak..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2183. xcool
td6 move to 40w .i'm used Tropical RAMSDIS Online
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2182. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:
00Z GFS is out to Fourth Meal


Fourth meal is served when Long John Silvers is closed.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Noticed that too...with a fairly stout ridge directly north of it. That's not even believable.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Because it is. Makes no sense considering the westward steering flow.

Very odd.

If that keeps up, you can pretty much guarantee re-curvature on this run.


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Quoting MississippiWx:


Pretty common to see waves exit Africa with a huge area of convection. What is not common is them sustaining that convection over water. However, this wave is starting to gain model support as far as development goes.
Not a tropical wave, a MCC. The tropical wave is still over western Africa.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Hour 30

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
HWRF went against most of the other model guidance.


hmmmmm......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm already throwing out the 00z GFS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting bigwes6844:
do u guys see dat disturbance behind our new T.D. coming off Africa! OMG!


Pretty common to see waves exit Africa with a huge area of convection. What is not common is them sustaining that convection over water. However, this wave is starting to gain model support as far as development goes.
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2173. angiest
Quoting MississippiWx:


Noticed that too...with a fairly stout ridge directly north of it. That's not even believable.


Interspersed with runs showing very strong troughs, GFS has shown very weak lows turning this storm. Something isn't right with those.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting itrackstorms:
Interesting when regular bloggers start eating their own... :O

ROFL. Full moon impending. Funny how tropical systems often blossom during those times, too, isn't it?
Taz doesn't discriminate in his policies.
He's a to-the-letter sort of guy.
Anyway, outta here before I get into any more trouble.
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2171. Melagoo
... I never write anything off in Hurricane season
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2170. will45
well i said earlier today that GFS
initiated to far N but i got bashed for it. these old eyes could see it easily
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting itrackstorms:
Interesting when regular bloggers start eating their own... :O


It's not eating their own.. we're like a family here and a family should respect each other and show courtesy towards one another..

end of discussion.. Gosh I sound like the NHC discussions, LOL.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
At 27 hours it almost looks like its moving it NNW...

Because it is. Makes no sense considering the westward steering flow.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
At 27 hours it almost looks like its moving it NNW...



Noticed that too...with a fairly stout ridge directly north of it. That's not even believable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
do u guys see dat disturbance behind our new T.D. coming off Africa! OMG!
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At 27 hours it almost looks like its moving it NNW...

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2164. aquak9
I don't want to come in here and see you tube songs on the blog.

sigh....oh to be young again....
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
2163. smuldy
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...I'm LMOAO!

Problem is, I'm only 22. I hope that's not old, even though my body is starting to feel it...
its not, im 28 and im still a kid as are most of my friends, even the married ones. kids make you old, til then youre safe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting when regular bloggers start eating their own... :O
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06L would have to go NNW to match up with the position the GFS forecasts it to be in 18 hours. Highly unlikely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2160. angiest
Quoting smuldy:
for what it is worth globals were picking up on a storm 2 from that blob earlier


There is a pouch behind that complex, which may be what the models are picking up.
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Whatever. I usually try to avoid this sort of banter on WU. Anyway, must be working too much and need a little diversion.
But wow, TD6 is cruisin for a bruisin!
Hopefully, it will cruise right out to the northeast like JasonisCoolman has been insisting even before it had a center of circulation.
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Hour 18

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Holy Smokes: The GFS is wavering. It's starting to show high pressure building back in before Danielle recurves to the fishies! StormW was right. See StormW for NAO info.


What run are you referring to.

The 00z GFS is only out to 24 hours...
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2155. smuldy
Quoting angiest:


Someone (Levi?) said that blob is a MCC, not the way which is still 24-48 hours behind it. Still, if that holds together I don't see why it couldn't try to do something. Don't expect it will, however.
for what it is worth globals were picking up on a storm 2 from that blob earlier
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HWRF went against most of the other model guidance.


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Quoting angiest:


In your case then that is laughing my old ***.


LOL...I'm LMOAO!

Problem is, I'm only 22. I hope that's not old, even though my body is starting to feel it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2152. angiest
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Holy Smokes: The GFS is wavering. It's starting to show high pressure building back in before Danielle recurves to the fishies! StormW was right. See StormW for NAO info.


Where do you see that? Allan Huffman's site is slow again.
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I don't want to come in here and see you tube songs on the blog. It's a waste of blog space and time for the people in here for tropical weather discussion.

Thank you Taz for Blog policing.

Keep it up Taz.

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2150. Halyn
Quoting aquak9:
chicklit- I got banned for posting Recoon. So yeah, your video was not something bad. Should not have been a problem.

Brush your shoulder off- that's what I do :)



Self-appointed cops are a lot like smokers who have quit smoking .. sanctimonious and intolerant.
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2149. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh so it's LMOAO? xP
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I changed it to another sentence. It was supposed to be LMAO...Mistake on my part. XD


Lol...I know. Just giving you a hard time!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Thanks for the plus love.

Maybe it's been a hard day's night for Taz?

No it is the norn for Taz... He does it to everybody....
Now as for TD6 I am not suprised that they have not given it a name, because it is all a gess that far out.....
Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Holy Smokes: The GFS is wavering. It's starting to show high pressure building back in before Danielle recurves to the fishies! StormW was right. See StormW for NAO info.
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2145. angiest
Quoting MississippiWx:


Laughing my...? I must be too old for this lingo. ;)


In your case then that is laughing my old ***.
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Nite Baha...night Taz...night Destin...night all. Yeah, that TD6 has got my attention.
Holy cow! Impressive performance for one day.
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With TD6 looking like a sure-thing re-curve, I guess that leaves the SSTs warm for the next wave if it doesn't get pulled north like TD6 will.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Laughing my...? I must be too old for this lingo. ;)


I changed it to another sentence. It was supposed to be LMAO...Mistake on my part. XD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32256
2141. xcool
gfs O6HRS TOO FAR N
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2140. angiest
Quoting Melagoo:


Looks like another big wave right after TD 6 coming next


Someone (Levi?) said that blob is a MCC, not the way which is still 24-48 hours behind it. Still, if that holds together I don't see why it couldn't try to do something. Don't expect it will, however.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
LMOA! It would have to go due north to get there



Laughing my...? I must be too old for this lingo. ;)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey baha.IMO I think you still need to keep a watch on T.D 6 just in case it tries any slick tricks.
Wasn't planning to stop watching it; in fact even if it doesn't hit anything I'll STILL watch it fizzle or head out of the basin as an extratropical.... we had Donna here, u know.... twice....

Well, it's late, I gotta a full day tomorrow... I just find it ironic; just as things pick up for me at work, now I have a potential major with potential landfall possibilities no matter how minute on the charts.... When I was on vacation.... NADA.... lol ... go figure....

Sleep tight, kill the bedbugs, etc....

G'nite!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.