95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2236 - 2186

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Quoting Chicklit:

I like this comment :)

still...you gotta be kiddin me...


That thing coming off looks like it will be a record breaker if it holds over water! It just looks so strong
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Twinkster:


I disagree it is all about the long term pattern. A slight initialization farther north will not make the difference between a recurvature and heading west it is all about seeing the future synoptic pattern which i believe should push this further west than last run
Yes it will. A mishap in the beginning of the run will ruin it. It has it by 17N and 40W in 42 hours. I mean this won't be heading NW for that to verify, heck, this might not even head solid WNW.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting gordydunnot:
I would play Chicklit is just alright by me ,but the blog God my get upset. Don't Taze me brow.

Thanks, Gordy...honestly, Taz is objective.
No favorites. The situation is getting dicey. Just enforcing the rules.
Comprende. No problemo compadre.
guten nacht.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Hmm, maybe right, I also see nice ridging over 06L. We'll see..


The trough seems to be about the same strength as last run. No major difference. The big thing in this run is to see if there is that ballooning ridge again
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 937
2231. will45
Quoting Twinkster:


I disagree it is all about the long term pattern. A slight initialization farther north will not make the difference between a recurvature and heading west it is all about seeing the future synoptic pattern which i believe should push this further west than last run


a bad start has a bunch to do with the timing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2229. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:


"Four alarm fire in downtown Moscow tonight."


Clearing way for glorious new tractor factory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2228. JLPR2
Quoting wxhatt:
W0W


pretty blob :3
LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will45:


read post 2205 it doesnt matter what it does with this run


I disagree it is all about the long term pattern. A slight initialization farther north will not make the difference between a recurvature and heading west it is all about seeing the future synoptic pattern which i believe should push this further west than last run
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 937
2226. angiest
Quoting washingtonian115:
You know back in jube or even july I would've minded upwelling in the carribean.because the carribean is now just a hotpot of water waiting to be used.And when it's used under the right conditions....someones gonna feel it big time.


jube? Well, I am the Walrus.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2225. wxhatt
W0W
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 893
Quoting Twinkster:


dude you are talking way too soon. The GFS shows a trough off of the east coast at 42 hours the storm isn't expected to be in the area until about 100 hours later. Way too early to call what this run will do.


Hmm, maybe right, I also see nice ridging over 06L. We'll see..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know back in jube or even july I would've minded upwelling in the carribean.because the carribean is now just a hotpot of water waiting to be used.And when it's used under the right conditions....someones gonna feel it big time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2221. xcool
convection near coc
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
thank you for the answers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2219. JLPR2
Quoting DestinJeff:


Can you say that here?


Of course, just get your mind off the gutter. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2210. Want the German or English version lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2217. will45
Quoting Twinkster:


dude you are talking way too soon. The GFS shows a trough off of the east coast at 42 hours the storm isn't expected to be in the area until about 100 hours later. Way too early to call what this run will do.


read post 2205 it doesnt matter what it does with this run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2215. Melagoo


looks impressive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like it will follow the disintegrating blob of energy that has led the way since last night. Certainly a more westerly track for the next day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2212. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hour 30



Notice the wet low on the African coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hour 42

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
The GFS takes the new African NNW and weakens it almost immediately.

Im pretty much done with this run...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
GFS shows a stronger trough off the East Coast, this will recurve east of Bermuda on this run.


dude you are talking way too soon. The GFS shows a trough off of the east coast at 42 hours the storm isn't expected to be in the area until about 100 hours later. Way too early to call what this run will do.
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 937
I would play Chicklit is just alright by me ,but the blog God my get upset. Don't Taze me brow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2205. will45
2185. hulazigzag 11:48 PM EDT on August 21, 2010

it used the wrong starting point. when it initiated too far north it throws the whole track off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2204. scott39
Quoting Chicklit:

I like this comment :)

still...you gotta be kiddin me...
That looks like TD6s Daddy!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
2203. bappit
Weep, weep, weep and read 'em. Here's what the models say.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2202. Melagoo


African wave machine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:


Why is that? I don't have a link to it... is it way off?

ROFLMAO...Sorry, that's funny.
(He means they're totally off the mark.)
TD6 has not gone beyond 11N since about 8 o'clock this morning. And it's steadily strengthening. A trough is supposed to lift it up up and away...and no, I will not post the 'beautiful balloon' song.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Whether it's the actual wave or not makes no difference. The wave itself or a combination of the two is gaining model support.
It isn't, the actual wave is near the Prime Merdian, that MCC will have likely dissipate by tomorrow morning. Notice how on the GFS the wave emerges in about 36-42 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
At 39 hours a strong tropical wave emerges at a relatively low latitude.


Looks like it may develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS shows a stronger trough off the East Coast, this will recurve east of Bermuda on this run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2195. Ryuujin
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It has it moving NNW then NW during the next 36 hours. That is very unlikely to happen with the westerly/west-northwesterly low-level steering flow. That mess-up in the beginning of the run will ruin the entire run.


Cool thanks for answering.
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 373
2194. smuldy
Quoting angiest:


There is a pouch behind that complex, which may be what the models are picking up.
oh ok that would explain it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hulazigzag:
why is that if you don't mind? tia
It has it moving NNW then NW during the next 36 hours. That is very unlikely to happen with the westerly/west-northwesterly low-level steering flow. That mess-up in the beginning of the run will ruin the entire run.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not a tropical wave, a MCC. The tropical wave is still over western Africa.


Whether it's the actual wave or not makes no difference. The wave itself or a combination of the two is gaining model support.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2191. angiest
Let me head something off. It is not westcasting or wishcasting or anything else to ignore a model run that shows a seemingly implausible scenario. Although many of the runs of GFS showing this storm recurving have been believable, there have been some showing recurvature without steering to support it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2189. Ryuujin
Quoting DestinJeff:
00Z GFS is out to Fourth Meal


Why is that? I don't have a link to it... is it way off?
Member Since: August 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 373
Quoting DestinJeff:
00Z GFS is out to Fourth Meal

I like this comment :)

still...you gotta be kiddin me...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/TD/D/XX
MARK
11.53n/33.14w

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Nice developing curve band.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2236 - 2186

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.