95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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I think the storm from the african tip can sustain its production of being a possible strong wave because the enviornment is getting better to organize. I wouldn't have said dat last week or earlier this month! We about to see some active storms now!!
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2285. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:


Did you think of it from the "gun to my head reading every post" line, or my post?

can't help it. it's the way I think. definitely bad on those that didn't catch it.


It crossed my mind.
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2282. angiest
Quoting Chicklit:

Don't feel bad; the GFS doesn't know, either.


It doesn't know what it's doing?
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#2272: Stormchaser, I am impressed.
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2279. angiest
Yep, Danielle at 996mb is being drawn to a 1014mb low.
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2278. xcool
MississippiWx .toot toot toot toot & beep beep
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2277. wxhatt
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:


I dont know the words to say? Very strong wave?


Very Big and Ominous Wave!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
102 hours, moving due north (06L). PGI34L is moving towards the WNW/NW:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
At 105 TD6 is heading North and part 2 is heading NW.
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Quoting angiest:
I, for one, don't see a recurve east of Bermuda on this run. But who knows what the GFS will do.

Don't feel bad; the GFS doesn't know, either.
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Hurricane Frances

Has a sharper curve than TD6 2010.

August 2010 TD Six


Watch TD Six turn into Hurricane Frances and the track. Things change.
Frances Animation Advisories
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2271. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:
sorry angiest ... need some rest. I am ashamed now that I didn't recognize your recognition of my reference.


Is it worse that we both thought of that or that more people didn't catch it?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
90 hours:



Holy ... Going to be a good week to see what these systems do!
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2269. scott39
24 hours ago/ L--11.1N--27.1W-- Now--TD6--11.3N--32.6W www.tropicalatlantic.com
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
90 hours:



All-aboard!
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2267. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
90 hours:



That 1016mb low will draw Danielle north.
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Quoting HurricaneLovr75:


I dont know the words to say? Very strong wave?

That's putting it politely.
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At 96 hours, its starting to move NNW if not true North.

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90 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

if there will be 3 H's why the models insist that the future Danielle will take north???

Good question. Dr. Masters has also said in his blog that TD6 will not make it to the Lesser Antilles which is clever because obviously, he is not ruling out the other Antilles.
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2261. angiest
I, for one, don't see a recurve east of Bermuda on this run. But who knows what the GFS will do.
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2260. will45
at 84 hrs it still has the second wave developing
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

if there will be 3 H's why the models insist that the future Danielle will take north???

I know right.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Danielle and Earl. Stormchaser2007, is still (PGI34L) hasn't weakened. At what point does it?

66 hours:



Well when It went over the Cape Verde islands it seemed to have lost a bit of moisture.

At 84 hours its due West of the Verdes and probably at TS strength.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hey Jeff, yeah, that's my 'Hey Jude.'
And people play/sing 'paperback writer' to me sometimes too. :0
Anyway, I will get banned if this banter continues.
In weather related post, Danielle doesn't look too far off if current conditions continue.
Must say, KmanIslander tagged this one early.
Looks like StormW has it continuing west.
The conspicuous absences at this point are Drakoen and Levi32 (who at least made an appearance!) Drak must be going off to FSU this weekend and taking care of his last minute 'see ya round's' Goodnight!~



First part of your post was minused and "!" for not being weather-related.
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I tend to wait and see if this storm recurves out to sea. Too much uncertainties at this time. Would be interesting to see if the storm, is in place to be steered by the two troughs coming across the Atlantic. There will be a problem, if this storm misses the troughs altogether. No doubt.
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2253. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:


Man, nobody got the Airplane! reference?


Didn't you see my response?
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Quoting wxhatt:
W0W


I dont know the words to say? Very strong wave?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2251. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Danielle and Earl. Stormchaser2007, is still (PGI34L) hasn't weakened. At what point does it?

66 hours:


Yep, showing a direct hit on the Cape Verde Islands.
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2250. wxhatt
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:


That thing coming off looks like it will be a record breaker if it holds over water! It just looks so strong


Yea, I wonder if it developes in tandem, will they do the Fujiwara Dance??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Jeff, yeah, that's my 'Hey Jude.'
And people play/sing 'paperback writer' to me sometimes too. :0
Anyway, I will get banned if this banter continues.
In weather related post, Danielle doesn't look too far off if current conditions continue.
Must say, KmanIslander tagged this one early.
Looks like StormW has it continuing west.
The conspicuous absences at this point are Drakoen and Levi32 (who at least made an appearance!) Drak must be going off to FSU this weekend and taking care of his last minute 'see ya round's' Goodnight!~

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes it will. A mishap in the beginning of the run will ruin it. It has it by 17N and 40W in 42 hours. I mean this won't be heading NW for that to verify, heck, this might not even head solid WNW.


I'm telling you this. When looking at a model for long term for example in this situation (recurve vs no recurve) you don't look at where the model takes the storm you look at the long term synoptic pattern and apply it the system. Model runs will change the track of the storm every time by a few hundred miles in long term but you want to see synoptic pattern that will define what the system will do overall
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962
I see TD6 COC at 11.2N 33.2W I am very sure about this
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hour 42


if there will be 3 H's why the models insist that the future Danielle will take north???
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Danielle and Earl. Stormchaser2007, it still (PGI34L) hasn't weakened. At what point does it?

66 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2243. will45
Quoting Twinkster:


the initialization of this run was fine. What you didn't like about it was the nnw movement. This short term movement won't make one heck of a difference


thats your opinion and we all have one
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
2242. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2241. angiest
By hour 60 the Cape Verde Islands may need a TS watch/warning, if this run actually verifies.
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Quoting angiest:


jube? Well, I am the Walrus.
My computer is going through some issues right now.I pressed n,and insted b popped up.Yeah don't have the best of computers right now.
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Again WOW!
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Quoting will45:


a bad start has a bunch to do with the timing


the initialization of this run was fine. What you didn't like about it was the nnw movement. This short term movement won't make one heck of a difference
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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