95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


right cuz storms never take crazy tracks like that *rolls eyes*
Didn't you here him, W then SW. God knows where the GFS takes it. Seems funny to me.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Not really trusting long range, but fun to watch and a possible scenario if the strong ridge builds as strong as the GFS shows. Explains the westward bend on the HWRF and the GFS ensembles.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
276

Final approach to Nova Scotia


I see no update past 204 hours
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2382. smuldy
Quoting MississippiWx:


We aren't trusting them.
we are watching them to see where they think the storm may go, so we will know where it definitely will not go
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2381. scott39
Quoting MississippiWx:


We aren't trusting them.
Ok, Still have to learn model talk!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh jeez! This is going to be funny.


right cuz storms never take crazy tracks like that *rolls eyes*
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2378. xcool
angiest c word
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
276

Final approach to Nova Scotia
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2376. xcool
GFS not make sense .anywayyyy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
2375. angiest
Seriously, what is the GFS smoking tonight?
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Quoting scott39:
Why are we trusting models 180 hours out, when they cant get the track right now as we type?


We aren't trusting them.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL

At 228 its moving West towards the NE.

Then at 252 its moving SW

LOL!
Oh jeez! This is going to be funny.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL

At 228 its moving West towards the NE.


Its certainly possible with that set up
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL

At 228 its moving West towards the NE.


Cue the NYC crowd.
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as new sat images come out the more I see that TD 6 is located at 11.2/3N 33.4W moving W or N of due W and is west and south of the forecast plots
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11177
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL

At 228 its moving West towards the NE.


I thought so
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2368. scott39
Why are we trusting models 180 hours out, when they cant get the track right now as we type?
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Quoting btwntx08:

hmmm all i said i watch the game i wasnt bring it up just tellin u where i was now back to our system


Lol...I'm playing. We have been put on strict guidelines by Taz tonight. He's reporting everything non-weather related.
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I've should've kept my mouth shut about Frances,because now people want to compare T.d 6 to Frances.Bad mistake.
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Quoting Chicklit:

ummmmm...east?
You guys are crackin me up tonight.
nite. really fo sho.


um, I think we may be talking about 2 different things.... :)
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LOL

At 228 its moving West towards the NE.

Then at 252 its moving SW

LOL!
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2363. angiest
Quoting Ryuujin:


Sorry for my lack, but what model is this, GFS? Are we all still ignoring the fact that GFS tends to really over sell the strength of Trofs? I mean, I don't want to question anyones thought process again here, but... GFS kinda goes haywire with it's extremely well known cold bias. which makes any Trof it forms much stronger than it really is. But who knows.


We are discussing what the GFS is doing in the 00Z run. And a lot of that discussion is dissing.
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Quoting angiest:


Woulda been Fiona, but it didn't develop and is lost a few frames later. But that far out is cyclogenesis reliable?


Probably not...the pattern is changing and we should expect an explosion of storms...
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2360. will45
Quoting angiest:


Watch for a very hard right turn to shoot the gap between the ridges.


yep the gap is biggggggggggg
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
2359. angiest
Quoting Hurricanes101:


not sure about that, the weakness has already left it behind


Yeah but we are talking the GFS, not reality. :)
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2358. smuldy
Quoting JLPR2:


Huge system!
ya its very likely that 2 hurricanes virtually sit without moving for 24 hours in the central atl
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2357. angiest
Quoting MississippiWx:


Who dat?


Woulda been Fiona, but it didn't develop and is lost a few frames later. But that far out is cyclogenesis reliable?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


yes, I saw that.....pretty big wave..... I wonder where that one will go. hmmmmm

ummmmm...east?
Quoting angiest:


Watch for a very hard right turn to shoot the gap between the ridges.

You guys are crackin me up tonight.
nite. really fo sho.
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Quoting angiest:


Watch for a very hard right turn to shoot the gap between the ridges.


not sure about that, the weakness has already left it behind
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Who dat?
Nah, it dissipates.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2353. bappit
Quoting wxhatt:
They still don't have the wave emerging from Africa marked yet...


As others have pointed out, that is not a wave. Check out the PREDICT page for the next wave or follow the UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS link on the Atlantic Tropical Discussion web page linked from www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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2352. Ryuujin
Quoting angiest:
Hour 162. Fiona in the wings.



Sorry for my lack, but what model is this, GFS? Are we all still ignoring the fact that GFS tends to really over sell the strength of Trofs? I mean, I don't want to question anyones thought process again here, but... GFS kinda goes haywire with it's extremely well known cold bias. which makes any Trof it forms much stronger than it really is. But who knows.
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At 180

Moving N.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah it appears to stall. We got Danielle, Earl, and 08L by that time too.


Who dat?
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Quoting Melagoo:
... I never write anything off in Hurricane season

I would begin evacuating the east coast from Boston to Miami.....
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2348. angiest
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Folks check out that ridge, Danielle is on the SE side of it


Watch for a very hard right turn to shoot the gap between the ridges.
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2347. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
168 hours, moving at a couple mph if not stalled. Looks to be moving NNW/NW now.



Huge system!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8514
2346. MahFL
Fish !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!
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00Z GFS has an even stronger ridge over 06L southeast of Bermuda, this MAY push it west, notice the next trough is in the upper Midwest USA by that time as the ridge expands in the NE.
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174 hours, moving very slowly towards the NNW. Very powerful hurricane, likely around the category 3/category 4 range.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Chicklit:

Go to Central Atlantic and turn right.


yes, I saw that.....pretty big wave..... I wonder where that one will go. hmmmmm
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Quoting btwntx08:
hello all just came back from my cowboys whats up?


Rob, what you do with Cowboys in your spare time is your own business. Please, don't bring it on the blog, especially with Taz around. He might not take too kindly to that sort of stuff...
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Folks check out that ridge, Danielle is on the SE side of it
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2340. wxhatt
You know if this thing becomes a 'Major' with all the latent heat energy stored up and available, it could create it own environment...




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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
At 168 hours it really slows it down SSE of Bermuda.



yup steering currents become very weak. either ridge builds back in and pushes it west or it waits for that trough over central u.s. to fully recurve
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Expanding on a previous post.

Looking at the convection around the COC and lack of convection in the eastern semi. Surly taking in some easterly shear ATM.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
At 168 hours it really slows it down SSE of Bermuda.
Yeah it appears to stall. We got Danielle, Earl, and 08L by that time too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
At 168 hours it really slows it down SSE of Bermuda.


and that weakness is closing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.