95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


that is incorrect, it hits nova scotia near the end of the run
Link the image that it is overland, please.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2435. angiest
Quoting AllyBama:
uh-oh...I will have to alert my daughter who lives in the DC area to take heed of the situation with TD6. Traffic out of the area would be horrible.


You have well well over a week.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So my Ike or Andrew track isn't out of the question,or it's still impossible at this moment?


nothing is impossible. some things are unlikely but an andrew track can't be discounted but it is unlikely
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So my Ike or Andrew track isn't out of the question,or it's still impossible at this moment?


Nothing is impossible at this point in the game and I wouldn't rule anything out. The only thing you could probably rule out is a Caribbean track. Other than that, it would be highly uneducated to say the US won't be affected in some way by TD6 (Danielle).
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
After all the low of 06L never touched land, so the 00z GFS says fish storm. Ahhh, that was interesting.

G'night eveyone!


that is incorrect, it hits nova scotia near the end of the run
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uh-oh...I will have to alert my daughter who lives in the DC area to take heed of the situation with TD6. Traffic out of the area would be horrible.
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Quoting Relix:

Yes its quite easy to minus a post or ignore it, but as in my case I was just reading every comment and your senseless and rude one came through. I don't like ignoring people, even the most useless ones have something useful to say every once in a while, or maybe even entertaining. As you said yourself, no one has to read your comments, but as this is a public forum where most people tend to have civil conversations and not attack other's opinions then it's not welcome. If you don't like what I said you are welcome to ignore me or just straight leave the blog. Your comments aren't the least helpful at all and are NOT NEEDED. Thank you.

Now onto weather related stuff.... I still stick by the models! =P


wow lmao

I said the 00Z GFS could happen and has happened before and that is considered useless?

I think you just have a chip on your shoulder is all, but like you said back to the tropics; something I was talking about before your little outburst
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TD6 is convectively challenged tonight
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2428. Relix
Quoting wxhatt:


How could they deal with a major hurr

and more thunderstorms are firing in the center.





I am very sure this will be the first major of the season. I am thinking Cat 3 or 4 at least. Hopefully it does not affect any land, and especially NOT NYC. If it ended up in NYC then this season would automatically become one of the worst, even with the low activity so far.
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After all the low of 06L never touched land, so the 00z GFS says fish storm. Ahhh, that was interesting.

G'night eveyone!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2426. angiest
Quoting Dropsonde:
Peculiar.

However, it makes sense in a certain way. This is definitely a leftward shift and greater consideration for the possibility of TD6/D missing the first trough. Some people (I believe Levi in particular) predicted that the leftward model shift would happen tonight, which the HWRF at 18Z had already hinted at.

I'm not calling fish on this yet.


Now that there is a storm it doesnt seem as bullish on rate of intensification, which may also plat into things as GFS gets a better handle on the system.
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2424. Relix
Quoting Hurricanes101:


if you dont want to read them, then dont read them

you or no one else on here has any right to tell anyone whether they can post or not

ps I just came back from being away from the computer most of the night anyway

Yes its quite easy to minus a post or ignore it, but as in my case I was just reading every comment and your senseless and rude one came through. I don't like ignoring people, even the most useless ones have something useful to say every once in a while, or maybe even entertaining. As you said yourself, no one has to read your comments, but as this is a public forum where most people tend to have civil conversations and not attack other's opinions then it's not welcome. If you don't like what I said you are welcome to ignore me or just straight leave the blog. Your comments aren't the least helpful at all and are NOT NEEDED. Thank you.

Now onto weather related stuff.... I still stick by the models! =P
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Quoting reedzone:
Not really trusting long range, but fun to watch and a possible scenario if the strong ridge builds as strong as the GFS shows. Explains the westward bend on the HWRF and the GFS ensembles.
So my Ike or Andrew track isn't out of the question,or it's still impossible at this moment?
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Peculiar.

However, it makes sense in a certain way. This is definitely a leftward shift and greater consideration for the possibility of TD6/D missing the first trough. Some people (I believe Levi in particular) predicted that the leftward model shift would happen tonight, which the HWRF at 18Z had already hinted at.

I'm not calling fish on this yet.
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2421. xcool
All we could do is keep an eye on TD6 .MODELS HAVE NOO CLUE WHERE IS GOING....
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2420. wxhatt
Quoting MississippiWx:


Cue the NYC crowd.


How could they deal with a major hurr
Quoting StormChaser81:
It's really starting to build banding features. You can see them clearly moving under the clouds in the Water Vapor floater.
Water Vapor Floater Flash


and more thunderstorms are firing in the center.



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2419. angiest
Quoting dmaddox:
new 00Z GFS.... 252 hours out... interesting... hmmmm... TD-6 (soon to be danielle) sitting just off the Northeast coast...



Earl's going to an early grave.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Do I understand that the model run being posted doesn't show this cyclone to be a major for another 6+ days. That doesn't make sense to me. This thing looks like it may reach major status within 72-96 hours. Even the I think conservative here NHC wind probability chart shows a 20% chance right nowLinkI think I'd discount this model, and/or consider what happens if the storm is stronger sooner.


well the models do poorly with intensity, I think what the GFS is showing is a major hurricane or very close
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.
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2416. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True. Many examples could be brought up.
when is the last time a major hurricane AND a strong TS/weak hurricane near it virtually stalled and didn't move for 24 hours? honest question, but it doesn't make alot of sense given two big storms would be interacting with the nearby environment
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2414. dmaddox
new 00Z GFS.... 252 hours out... interesting... hmmmm... TD-6 (soon to be danielle) sitting just off the Northeast coast...

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2413. angiest
Battery's dying, so I will be out soon.
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Do I understand that the model run being posted doesn't show this cyclone to be a major for another 6+ days. That doesn't make sense to me. This thing looks like it may reach major status within 72-96 hours. Even the I think conservative here NHC wind probability chart shows a 20% chance right nowLinkI think I'd discount this model, and/or consider what happens if the storm is stronger sooner.
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00Z GFS says no to the fish storm
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


maybe but in the end storms do take tracks like that
True. Many examples could be brought up.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2409. eddye
tropics chat everyone
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Whatever...still found it funny.


maybe but in the end storms do take tracks like that
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So...After the 00z run of the GFS, we still have no idea where TD6 will end up going in the long term. Huh...didn't see that one coming.
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Quoting Relix:


You need a break from the blog and not spitting out your sarcastic comments. No one wants to read them. Thank you!


if you dont want to read them, then dont read them

you or no one else on here has any right to tell anyone whether they can post or not

ps I just came back from being away from the computer most of the night anyway
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Especially after seeing the westward bend on the end of some model runs, I am not confident this will move "harmlessly" out to sea.
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2403. angiest
Poor Earl. Can't get out of big sister's shadow.
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That was odd.

Im out

Goodnight all.
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2401. will45
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I see no update past 204 hours


im at 252
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
228 hours:



Pipsqueak likely to follow in that scenario.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


so?

Jeanne made a loop

Kyle moved about every direction it could have, the NHC about blew a gasket because of it

Hurricanes dont just move in straight pretty little lines
Whatever...still found it funny.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2395. Relix
Quoting scott39:
Why are we trusting models 180 hours out, when they cant get the track right now as we type?


Models have been spot on so far with this system. Very clustered. Yes maybe a change to the west but it's looking more and more like a fishie. As I said before, models have been VERY spot on so far. Track will shift west but you can bet your house on that recurve taking it away from USA and the islands.
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YIKES!...Td6 could hit the East Coast..isn't the Pres at Martha's Vineyard?..lol
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2393. wxhatt
Quoting bappit:

As others have pointed out, that is not a wave. Check out the PREDICT page for the next wave or follow the UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS link on the Atlantic Tropical Discussion web page linked from www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Your right, I see that now.

That low is sure covering a large area!

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2392. angiest
Quoting smuldy:
we are watching them to see where they think the storm may go, so we will know where it definitely will not go


I thought that was JCM. (Jim Cantore Model)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Didn't you here him, W then SW. God knows where the GFS takes it. Seems funny to me.


so?

Jeanne made a loop

Kyle moved about every direction it could have, the NHC about blew a gasket because of it

Hurricanes dont just move in straight pretty little lines
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2390. xcool


update
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
It's really starting to build banding features. You can see them clearly moving under the clouds in the Water Vapor floater.
Water Vapor Floater Flash
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I see no update past 204 hours


Im using StormVista

Updates way faster than NCEP
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240 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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