95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2486. GBguy88
Quoting Hurricanes101:


East coast of Florida


Ah, nice. Panhandle for the second landfall here.
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Quoting angiest:


You have well well over a week.


lol..I know but when you live in an area such as DC - which is hurricane ignorant - you need to be the first to react and get the heck out of dodge!..taking the metro won't help!...lol
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2482. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2481. wxhatt
Quoting bdkennedy1:
I predict Danielle with the next update.


concur
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Hey guys, how does live, play-by-play ECMWF updates sound for tonight? I get the maps earlier than most people, and while I can't post the maps themselves, I can describe in detail what's going on.
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Quoting GBguy88:


Where were you at for Erin?


East coast of Florida
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
2478. xcool


500MB


Link
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2476. GBguy88
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Eye of Gloria, Erin in 1995 and Charley


Where were you at for Erin?
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2475. scott39
Models not good with the first tropical point!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
2474. xcool


LAST TIME.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Southern eye wall of Frances, for wayyyyy to long, that should count as 2. Wilma, bent the dead bolt on my 3rd story apartment so I couldn't go out and see like they tell you not to. Moron me, decided to try and fix the lock an take the door knob apart. Luckily my brain kicked in and told me to stop and put the lock back together, round 2 was fast approaching. Close pass of Jeanne, Ernesto ummm, does that count, lol.


Eye of Gloria, Erin in 1995 and Charley
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Wow I guess a strong storm passing within what 50 miles of a coastline is still a fish?

Ok then its a fish, those who may go through it would probably disagree
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2471. GBguy88
Quoting wxhatt:


Been in a few canes but never an eye (o)



eyewall scraped the coast...


Erin, Opal, and Dennis for me.
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2470. xcool
scott39 .yeahh
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting swflurker:
Survey Question!
How many of you have beed in the eye of a Hurricane. I have been there twice, Charley and Wilma? Or are most of you just interested?



Southern eye wall of Frances, for wayyyyy to long, that should count as 2. Wilma, bent the dead bolt on my 3rd story apartment so I couldn't go out and see like they tell you not to. Moron me, decided to try and fix the lock an take the door knob apart. Luckily my brain kicked in and told me to stop and put the lock back together, round 2 was fast approaching. Close pass of Jeanne, Ernesto ummm, does that count, lol.
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I predict Danielle with the next update.
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2466. scott39
Cone of doom will shift left!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
yup it gets very close to nova scotia, not sure it makes landfall, but really a large storm like this passing within 50 miles of a coastal area is not a fish storm

IF Floyd had missed the carolinas in 1999, he would still not be a fish storm due to the hurricane force gusts he caused along the Florida East Coast.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
I think one point is really being missed tonight with this latest GFS run. That is the fact that from 8/22 thru 9/7 only ONE storm is being tracked. Little Earl fizzles out and nothing else of any significance is showing up. INTERESTING don't you think?


The models have been flip flopping on certain storms forming like the GOM storm and more than one cape verdes storm forming. You can see clearly with you own eye's how strong these waves are leaving the coast of Africa.
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2463. scott39
TD6 will pass S of first Tropical Point.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
2462. wxhatt
Quoting swflurker:
Survey Question!
How many of you have beed in the eye of a Hurricane. I have been there twice, Charley and Wilma? Or are most of you just interested?


Been in a few canes but never an eye (o)



eyewall scraped the coast...
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Quoting dmaddox:
new 00Z GFS.... 252 hours out... interesting... hmmmm... TD-6 (soon to be danielle) sitting just off the Northeast coast...



I hope that doesn't happen!
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2460. xcool
TD6 need more work
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2458. scott39
Quoting StormChaser81:
If you turn on the tropical points "trop pts" it's a tad north 5-10 miles of the points.

Looks like 12 - 15 mph.

From the tropical points its shows it turning into a TS "Tropical Storm" in about 3-6 hours from now.
Infrared loop channel 2
? N
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2457. dmaddox
00z GFS hour 300 /// danielle makes landfall over nova scotia! LOL

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Nothing is impossible at this point in the game and I wouldn't rule anything out. The only thing you could probably rule out is a Caribbean track. Other than that, it would be highly uneducated to say the US won't be affected in some way by TD6 (Danielle).
True, nothing is impossible....but right now the strong favorite for effect on East Coast is "ROUGH SURF" at 50%, with NOTHING a close second at 45%. That does still leave 5% though for something else
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Quoting angiest:
In 300 hours, a tiny system may try to form in the BOC.

Where are those other storms it developes?
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If you turn on the tropical points "trop pts" it's a tad north 5-10 miles of the points.

Looks like 12 - 15 mph.

From the tropical points its shows it turning into a TS "Tropical Storm" in about 3-6 hours from now.
Infrared loop channel 2
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Wow I guess a strong storm passing within what 50 miles of a coastline is still a fish?

Ok then its a fish, those who may go through it would probably disagree
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
2451. xcool
LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2450. scott39
TD6 is looking at the first tropical point and LOL!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
Survey Question!
How many of you have beed in the eye of a Hurricane. I have been there twice, Charley and Wilma? Or are most of you just interested?
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2448. eye
GFS had it going almost N the first 24 hrs, not going to happen with that ridge, it did some weird stuff this run, the first 24hrs was really weird and wrong, so basically GFS was out to lunch on this run.
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On a positive note, this may eventually be the 2nd storm of the year to wrap convection around the center.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link the image that it is overland, please.


doesn't officially make landfall, just offshore but lets be realistic if a strong storm passes just offshore of an area, its not a fish storm
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting will45:


he cant cuz the center never hit land
Exactly. Oh well, good night.
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Quoting AllyBama:
uh-oh...I will have to alert my daughter who lives in the DC area to take heed of the situation with TD6. Traffic out of the area would be horrible.
Like omg!.I live in D.C.And we have never evacuated for any hurricane whatso ever.However we can lose power,and get some damage but evacuations......not nessecary.Flooding can occur though in low lying areas,and in georgetown.
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2443. Relix
I can't quote you btwntx08 for some reason (you appear minused) but it did irk me in a bad way. Maybe I am not in bad mood, didn't really wanna be rude so excuse me for that. (Maybe the frustration of few storms? =p!)

Peace and love and all that stuff now =P
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2442. will45
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link the image that it is overland, please.


he cant cuz the center never hit land
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
2441. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2440. eddye
tropics chat
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2439. angiest
In 300 hours, a tiny system may try to form in the BOC.

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2437. scott39
Td6 has gone .2 degrees N and 5.5 degrees W in 24 hours.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that is incorrect, it hits nova scotia near the end of the run
Link the image that it is overland, please.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.