95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2536. scott39
xcool-LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
In the visible loop, what's that thing that popped out NNW a couple of frames ago and is currently at exactly 12 North, 32.8 West. That wouldn't be the LLC de-coupling, would it?


it is the center and it is not decoupling, convection is just not over the center yet
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2534. xcool
scott39


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
In the visible loop, what's that thing that popped out NNW a couple of frames ago and is currently at exactly 12 North, 32.8 West. That wouldn't be the LLC de-coupling, would it?
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2521. oracle28 5:31 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

I wasnt done, I am still researching, those were the 1st 2 that came to mind

I have added 2 more since then and am looking for others
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2531. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
mode runs are point less right now
You would have lost money if you put it on the first tropical point! LOL
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2528. xcool
scott39 .10K & moveing wnw or west.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2527. wxhatt
Quoting Tazmanian:
mode runs are point less right now


I know what ya mean Taz it's like a crap shoot this far out...
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2526. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
2525. scott39
Quoting xcool:



Looks like shes moving at a good clip!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
mode runs are point less right now


What is a mode run?
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2523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting Hurricanes101:
2513. oracle28 5:26 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

Juan in 2003 hit Nova Scotia

The Yankee Hurricane in 1935 started east of Bermuda and moved southwest before hitting S Florida


Two events in 75 years, so it would be a rare feat if it occurred, that does make it interesting. Similar to a hurricane approaching California.
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2520. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Kyle in 2002 is a well known example, developed well east of Bermuda and eventually made landfall along the SE US coast



you also have Ginger in 1971, while she developed south of Bermuda, her initial motion was NE and out to sea, but she did a 180 and came back to the west and eventually made landfall in North Carolina

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2518. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2517. scott39
Quoting oracle28:


Of course they vary after 72 hours, but the models are far from clueless. This is classic model consensus, trust me, there are storms and environments that confuse the models, resulting in a shotgun pattern, but this is not the case thus far with TD6. Time will tell.

Can anyone think of a storm that passed to the east of Bermuda (as TD6 is projected) and made U.S./Canadian landfall? Where is the best place to look for that scenario historically?
Do you think its going faster than forecasted right now?
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2513. oracle28 5:26 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

Juan in 2003 hit Nova Scotia



The Yankee Hurricane in 1935 started east of Bermuda and moved southwest before hitting S Florida

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Quoting wxhatt:


This would be the worst case senario though (GFB)...

Link



Yes that was a while ago. Hope to never witness that!
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2514. xcool


CMC.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:
2508. oracle28 5:23 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

I think there have been a few


got names? years? I'd be curious about the tracks.
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Hurricanes101; BAM suite are all heading to the fishes.
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Someone is spreading a virus on here, just like last year, whoever you are you better stop, it's immature! Froze my system 2 times now, luckily able to not restart on my second freeze.
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2510. wxhatt
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:


If Boston ever encountered a cat 1 there would be some major problems. Prob would hit South Shore where I live. Wouldn't be good? Been in Gloria and Bob. No big deal where I lived. I was young tho.


This would be the worst case senario though (GFB)...

Link

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2508. oracle28 5:23 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

I think there have been a few

Juan in 2003 is one, hit nova scotia
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Through 72 hours your correct. Beyond that, as expected, quite a spread exists. Some turning right, some left, some up the gut?



Of course they vary after 72 hours, but the models are far from clueless. This is classic model consensus, trust me, there are storms and environments that confuse the models, resulting in a shotgun pattern, but this is not the case thus far with TD6. Time will tell.

Can anyone think of a storm that passed to the east of Bermuda (as TD6 is projected) and made U.S./Canadian landfall? Where is the best place to look for that scenario historically?
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2498. oracle28 5:15 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

again not talking about the nhc track, about half the models took the storm out to sea or headed that way moving NE, the other half started to notice the turn; if I remember right the BAMM suite was the first to notice

my whole point, models can be wrong in the long range and they can change their tracks as the storm moves along; you see how far west the GFS and HWRF have come
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Orca, you are bad tonight!..ROFL..

must have been some Alabama boys in the Navy with you!..lol
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Quoting AllyBama:
Ummmm I almost apologize for #746 in my Blog :)

lol, Orca...


I added another one... I bad :)
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So models are going to shift left or are going to? Am I understanding correctly?
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Ummmm I almost apologize for #746 in my Blog :)

lol, Orca...
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Quoting AllyBama:


lol..I know but when you live in an area such as DC - which is hurricane ignorant - you need to be the first to react and get the heck out of dodge!..taking the metro won't help!...lol


If Boston ever encountered a cat 1 there would be some major problems. Prob would hit South Shore where I live. Wouldn't be good? Been in Gloria and Bob. No big deal where I lived. I was young tho.
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2500. scott39
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Through 72 hours your correct. Beyond that, as expected, quite a spread exists. Some turning right, some left, some up the gut?

Its going left of that first point right now. Every models needs to shift left for now! IMO
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2499. wxhatt
Quoting txsweetpea:
Hello everyone!


Hey!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
2487. oracle28 5:09 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

Not at first she wasnt


There was a 5-day advance notice of the loop. See the 9/18/2004 11 PM EDT 5-day track.
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2497. xcool
'
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting oracle28:


No clue? On the contrary, quite a consensus exists.


Through 72 hours your correct. Beyond that, as expected, quite a spread exists. Some turning right, some left, some up the gut?

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see post 2397
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2494. wxhatt
Quoting GBguy88:


Erin, Opal, and Dennis for me.


4 sure... the eyewall was brutal because we didn't get a break!

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Hello everyone!
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Quoting xcool:
All we could do is keep an eye on TD6 .MODELS HAVE NOO CLUE WHERE IS GOING....


No clue? On the contrary, quite a consensus exists.
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Quoting AllyBama:


lol..I know but when you live in an area such as DC - which is hurricane ignorant - you need to be the first to react and get the heck out of dodge!..taking the metro won't help!...lol


Ummmm I almost apologize for #746 in my Blog :)
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Good morning,

Got real close to the eyewall of Charley in Punta Gorda
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2487. oracle28 5:09 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

Not at first she wasnt

and the models had her going out to sea after she left Haiti, but the NHC did not buy the consensus from what I remember and they started forecasting the loop
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Out for now, night all.

TD6 is par for the course ATM, lopsided.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


so?

Jeanne made a loop

Kyle moved about every direction it could have, the NHC about blew a gasket because of it

Hurricanes dont just move in straight pretty little lines


Jeanne was FORECASTED to loop as well. This has been discussed before on earlier blogs.
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2486. GBguy88
Quoting Hurricanes101:


East coast of Florida


Ah, nice. Panhandle for the second landfall here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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