95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Link?

It's a pay site so I can't post the live 6-hourly images. I will provide you with this, though:

Link
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2585. wxhatt
Quoting btwntx08:

it would be quite interesting if that nogaps keeps showing what it showed right now








Yep
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Quoting philliesrock:
At 78 it's obvious that this ECMWF run will be very different from 12z. It's a full 6 degrees farther south in latitude at this hour.


Link?
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2583. xcool
further south ECMWF wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
ECMWF 84 hours...kind of useless to keep comparing it to 12z since the differences are so huge, but I'll keep doing it anyway.

0z: 19N 51W
12z: 24N 48W
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2580. xcool
btwntx08 .100% yes.


philliesrock .ECMWF 00z or 12z ???
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
2579. 882MB
Hey everyone, i have something very interesting to say that im starting to notice,the new run of HWRF 00Z model turns TD#6 to the left at 126 hours, also notice the huge high pressure coming off the new england coast thats why the GFS slows it down at the end of the run, in my opinion if the high is pretty strong it could turn future Danielle westward something to keep an eye on, anyone has any comments. AB
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Is it at all remotely possible that the models were initializing TD 6 as the area to the NE of it near the CV Islands?
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At 78 it's obvious that this ECMWF run will be very different from 12z. It's a full 6 degrees farther south in latitude at this hour.
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2574. wxhatt
Quoting extreme236:
T-numbers should soon be approaching 2.5, given us a TS...09E in the EPAC is certainly a TS IMO.


concur...

Look at what follows too.

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At 60, the ECMWF is at about 18N 44W, compared to 21N 44W on the 12z run.
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2572. xcool
btwntx08 .ohyeah
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
T-numbers should soon be approaching 2.5, given us a TS...09E in the EPAC is certainly a TS IMO.
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2568. wxhatt
000
FZNT02 KNHC 220300
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC BETWEEN 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON AUG 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE AUG 24.

.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 11.3N 32.6W 1008 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
22 MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30
GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 12.9N 36.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND 40 GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
80 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
IN AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 14.7N 41.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND 60 GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 120 NM N AND 90 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 18.0N 47.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 21.5N 51.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 25.0N 55.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.


.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC FROM 12N TO 18N E OF 38W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
S OF 12N E OF 40W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...FROM 08N TO 22N
E OF 40W WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 360 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS
TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 23N E OF 50W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 85W E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 90W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

not sure if we are at 2.5 yet
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So far...

GFS scrapes New England
NOGAPS heads towards the East Coast
*Waiting on the 00Z EURO and BAMM suits.

I wonder how the GFS ensembles will look later...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
either way I am off to bed

night everyone


thanks for the info!
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2565. xcool
btwntx08 ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting Hurricanes101:
2521. oracle28 5:31 AM GMT on August 22, 2010

I wasnt done, I am still researching, those were the 1st 2 that came to mind

I have added 2 more since then and am looking for others


The last two I would consider south of Bermuda, but Juan and 1935 are what I was curious about.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Frances was further south,


Yeah, just noticed that.. but still, similar in ways.
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2561. xcool
anywayyy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
At 18 hours, the ECMWF is farther north than most other models, but farther south than its 12z run.
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2559. bwt1982
bye bye TD 6 say hi to the fishies!!!!
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Quoting reedzone:
00Z NOGAPS = Hurricane Frances repeat. (not out of the woods by no means)


Frances was further south,
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2557. JRRP
see you later
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2556. xcool
scott39 haha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting scott39:
If TD6 gets to 20N before 60W, I will live off crows until next season!

There's almost no chance of TD6 passing under the 20/60 benchmark.
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00Z NOGAPS = Hurricane Frances repeat. (not out of the woods by no means)
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The ECMWF has started! It looks like it may have initialized about 25-50 miles too far north.
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2552. scott39
If TD6 gets to 20N before 60W, I will live off crows until next season!
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2551. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
warfighter nogaps 00z

warfighter gfs 00z



RUN COMPLETE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
either way I am off to bed

night everyone
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Quoting extreme236:
If if 06L does head left of the forecast track, it still appears very likely to move out to sea.


I agree.
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Quoting xcool:



quite interesting.

What an unpredictable system...anything from a hit on the Southeast coast to a recurve east of 60W is possible.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks very close to 12N then


I'd say more like 11.5N. There's no way this system has climbed a full degree in latitude in just three hours. No way, no how.
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If if 06L does head left of the forecast track, it still appears very likely to move out to sea.
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2545. fetoau
"ever been in the eye?

Yes. Hazel 1954.

When the eye crossed, my Dad, who had been in the South Pacific, immediately recognized it for what it was and took us out in the car to view the damage. It was cool except he missed the return of the eye wall by about 60 seconds.

NOT FUN.
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2544. xcool
scott39 .ECMWF nexttt
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting KoritheMan:


The center isn't at 12N.


looks very close to 12N then
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u guys does anyone think it might take a more southerly track right over the leeward islands because right now with whatever is in front of it being the more organised one
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2541. scott39
Quoting xcool:



quite interesting.
Inching over
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2540. xcool



quite interesting.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
2539. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/TD/D/XX
MARK
11.63N/35.23W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it is the center and it is not decoupling, convection is just not over the center yet


The center isn't at 12N.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
In the visible loop, what's that thing that popped out NNW a couple of frames ago and is currently at exactly 12 North, 32.8 West. That wouldn't be the LLC de-coupling, would it?


No. The overall cloud pattern of the system does not suggest that at all. Additionally, cirrus motions suggest that shear isn't prohibitive enough to decouple the vertical circulations.
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2536. scott39
xcool-LMAO
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.