95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6


Be patient, this thing just became TD6 20 hours ago.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Several things are attributed to why the center is exposed. First of all 20 knots or so of east-northeasterly shear is affecting the system. What this shear does is it pushes to convection westward and exposes the circulation. There has also been some slight dry air intrusion in the eastern quadrant which has helped to collapse some thunderstorms, but overall the dry air is very minimal and should only have a minor affect on 06L for the time being as it should be eliminated by tonight. The disturbance to the NE of 06L is also influencing the movement of 06L, which is what is making 06L move towards the NW and temporarily exposing the circulation. All in all, the circulation has slowly begun to advect westward (generally) under the convection, a sign of improving conditions. Chances are that 06L will become Danielle by 11p.m EDT tonight.

Thank you for the insight!!!!!
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3484. pottery
Quoting btwntx08:

stormw said it will move away thats the farthest its getting

OK.
The Gospel according to Storm.

(Sorry Storm, you know I love you.
Looking forward to your updates too, on the latest...).
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For some reason that site (PREDICT) over-detects SAL and makes it look like there is more than what there really is. If you look at it on the tropic2 page you'll notice that there is much less SAL than what the image you posted shows.

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Quoting btwntx08:

cause if its berumda or nova scotia it isnt a fish




thank you
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IMO I think the center of T.d 6 is exposed due to moderate shear of 10-20 knots.Shear however should decrease,and this should go head and develope steadly there afterward.
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will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6
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3479. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/XX/XX
MARK
13.07N/34.31W
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Quoting pottery:

Agree with that.
BUT look in the top left corner of your posted loop.
Then look at the Mid Level WV images.
The system is facing major challenges in the near future...


Yeah there is some brown coloring up there in the NW corner, however all the blues shooting up into the that NW corner will probably take care of most of it.

SHIPS believes the RH will stay fairly high, although steadily decreasing throughout the run:

700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 77 76 71 72 67 61 62 62 63 60

I agree though that this will have to overcome a few obstacles though, as it is trying to overcome one right now.
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3477. Vero1
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3475. Dakster
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he's not complaining hes lol why


Trying to get patrap riled up... He hasn't been the same poster since the oil well was capped.
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Quoting tornadolarkin:

Miami, why is the center exposed at this time, and will it go back under convection?
Several things are attributed to why the center is exposed. First of all 20 knots or so of east-northeasterly shear is affecting the system. What this shear does is it pushes to convection westward and exposes the circulation. There has also been some slight dry air intrusion in the eastern quadrant which has helped to collapse some thunderstorms, but overall the dry air is very minimal and should only have a minor affect on 06L for the time being as it should be eliminated by tonight. The disturbance to the NE of 06L is also influencing the movement of 06L, which is what is making 06L move towards the NW and temporarily exposing the circulation. All in all, the circulation has slowly begun to advect westward (generally) under the convection, a sign of improving conditions. Chances are that 06L will become Danielle by 11p.m EDT tonight.
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Nah, hopefully it won't affect anyone! Just a weird season this year.
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Quoting Grothar:


Will this do, or did I miss the point again. LOL. Here you go Sunny: (By the was, I think this image is about 5 billion years old)


The wave off of africa has held steady so far.People should be more worried about that one than T.D 6.I don't care what the models say,I think it will develope due to favorable upper level conditions,and warm sst(Duh!).
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3469. RTLSNK
Quoting Grothar:


Saw a comment from someone else whether you were referring to 1904 or 2004. I wasn't even in the country in 1904. LOL

I was a lurker in 2005 and then became a stalker in 2009. I didn't get enough abuse from my wife, so I figured I would come on here and be abused by strangers. Softens the blow. LOL


At "our" age we are not called stalkers, just harmless with walkers! :)
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3468. pottery
Quoting P451:


Why this comment?

Everyone is free to make an observation.

I asked earlier if we were seeing decoupling. Ike did too.


I think most of us took that as a Joke.
Good one too, I thought.
Lighten up a little.
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3467. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Dakster:


And you are complaining why?
he's not complaining hes lol why
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3466. pottery
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I think it's got enough moisture to work with in the general vicinity though

Link

Agree with that.
BUT look in the top left corner of your posted loop.
Then look at the Mid Level WV images.
The system is facing major challenges in the near future...
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Quoting weatherxtreme:
Ok so this one looks to be a possible FISH...what's inline next?


So you wan't to be tracking a storm that's a threat to land?
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3464. Patrap
Quoting weatherxtreme:
Ok so this one looks to be a possible FISH...what's inline next?



Giggles and snorts as the next CV impulse goes das poof as well..



But keep dem toes and fingers crossed,,to be sure
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
3463. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting P451:


Why this comment?

Everyone is free to make an observation.

I asked earlier if we were seeing decoupling. Ike did too.

because its something they don't want to hear but its ok just show the image that don't lie
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3462. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
Well the first much hyped CV Thrilla pops up and away foul and is caught.

LOL


And you are complaining why?
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Quoting stormpetrol:
coc and convection becoming further apart imo
It is.
You can see it clearly on the visible loop of the storm.
Still, I think it's just temporary, and the convection will align with the COC better and better over the next 18 hours or so. Then, watch out.
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Ok so this one looks to be a possible FISH...what's inline next?
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3459. Grothar
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I keep waiting for the "big map" Grothar


Will this do, or did I miss the point again. LOL. Here you go Sunny: (By the was, I think this image is about 5 billion years old)


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The Central Atlantic - Visible Loop reveals the the convection associated with the disturbance to the NE of 06L has begun to wane. If this continues that NW motion will likely die down and enter into a more WNW motion.

Miami, why is the center exposed at this time, and will it go back under convection?
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Quoting want2lrn:
OK people help me out...I want to ask about two systems other than TD6. The first one is west of the Lesser Antilles and seems to be looking better on satellite. The second is in the NE GOM and appears to be moving SW. Any thoughts from those of you "in the know" would be greatly appreciated. I am trying to wrap my head around this MET stuff...no pun intended. It looks and sounds as if TD6 is not of any concern for those of us in STEX, bu tthese others could be? Thank you!


The area of thunderstorm activity is from the tail-end of a front. Some models were developing it the other day, but not, it looks like it wont be a concern.

The wave west of the Antilles does look impressive, however, it probably wont develop in the short term.
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coc and convection becoming further apart imo
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Something to note, it's not called the rapid weakening flag, it's called the rapid dissipation flag lol. According to CIMSS, TD6 is rapidly dissipating.
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Quoting IKE:
Unless you live in Bermuda or the Bay of Campeche...IF, and it's a big IF, you believe the 12Z GFS you should be safe through Sept. 7th.
Link

The GFS has done pretty decent so far...so have the BAM Models.
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The Central Atlantic - Visible Loop reveals the the convection associated with the disturbance to the NE of 06L has begun to wane. If this continues that NW motion will likely die down and enter into a more WNW motion.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Cool, I got a word. LOL!


See!

There you go using your word!
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OK people help me out...I want to ask about two systems other than TD6. The first one is west of the Lesser Antilles and seems to be looking better on satellite. The second is in the NE GOM and appears to be moving SW. Any thoughts from those of you "in the know" would be greatly appreciated. I am trying to wrap my head around this MET stuff...no pun intended. It looks and sounds as if TD6 is not of any concern for those of us in STEX, bu tthese others could be? Thank you!
Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
Quoting pottery:

But check the Water Vapour images.....
lots of dry stuff west and north still.


I think it's got enough moisture to work with in the general vicinity though

Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea the ADT does that a lot. I recall when Felix was intensifying to a major the ADT had the rapid weakening flag on. Same with Bill too.


ADT is the blogger's model.

Guaranteed to overemphasise any trend.
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I keep waiting for the "big map" Grothar
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone wanting TD6 to stay weak will get bitten pretty darn good if it does. A weaker system (as shown a few days ago on the ECMWF) would advance more westward until it reaches favorable conditions in the Bahamas, nice warm shallow water, then it would really start to strengthen. I'm rooting for TD6 to intensify quickly and move on out to sea.
Agreed.If this continues to stay weak then find favorable conditions closer to any landmass area the results could be devestating.The NHC thinks that two hurricanes will be going on at the same time.One in the east pacific,and atlantic.
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3444. pottery
Quoting btwntx08:

little dry in the system....moisture is surrounding the evoirnment

Show me that.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey!

Thats my word...

Levi - Mischeif

Storm - Aye!

MiamiHurricanes09 - LOL!

Cool, I got a word. LOL!
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Good day. I see the center is again exposed and further north as the NE shear blows the convection away. Just the same as late last night when I said the center was much further north at 12N and a few gurus said NO WAY as nobody agreed. What do I know?
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3441. Grothar
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Grothar they appear as the GFS run continues dont worry :p


They are appearing as we speak. Just busting TropicalAnalyst's chops a little. We do that all the time. I wish some of you were in my classes. The amount of attention to which you all pay to the details is very commendable. Keeps people on their toes.
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ok well I am off for a bit, be back soon
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Quoting IKE:


To quote an overused word on here.....

ouch!


Hey!

Thats my word...

Levi - Mischeif

Storm - Aye!

MiamiHurricanes09 - LOL!

Tazmanian - JFV

Jason - Fish

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3438. IKE
Unless you live in Bermuda or the Bay of Campeche...IF, and it's a big IF, you believe the 12Z GFS you should be safe through Sept. 7th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, rapid weakening. It isn't rapidly weakening, it actually is slightly organizing with the circulation shifting under the convection.


Yea the ADT does that a lot. I recall when Felix was intensifying to a major the ADT had the rapid weakening flag on. Same with Bill too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, rapid weakening. It isn't rapidly weakening, it actually is slightly organizing with the circulation shifting under the convection.


I can see why they have the weakening flag on but not rapid weakening. They had the weakening flag on for Alex nearly it's entire lifetime lol, so it's not the most reliable source to determine whether a system is weakening or not. But I do believe that 06L has been weakening this morning but it may be trying to come back now.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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