95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2636 - 2586

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

2636. xcool


vs gfs
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Extrapolating the 240-hour ECMWF, I'd guess it hits Bermuda, misses New England, and slams into Canada.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea atcf said it was still a TD, but atcf also is saying TD 9-E is a TD


Yeah, I tend to take the ATCF data with a grain of salt when it comes to intensities for advisories. It is more helpful in determining if a system has formed or not and TAFB dvorak estimates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


NOGAPS is definitely on the southern edge of the reliable guidance from what I see so far. That solution would definitely pose a higher, but still uncertain threat to the US. A move out to sea would still be very possible.


Bermuda would be right in its path
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
Quoting dmaddox:
FNMOC: Pretty far SW....



NOGAPS is definitely on the southern edge of the reliable guidance from what I see so far. That solution would definitely pose a higher, but still uncertain threat to the US. A move out to sea would still be very possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
SAB up to 2.0...not sure if TAFB is any higher yet or not. If it is, it could go either way at 5am.


yea atcf said it was still a TD, but atcf also is saying TD 9-E is a TD
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
SAB up to 2.0...not sure if TAFB is any higher yet or not. If it is, it could go either way at 5am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2629. dmaddox
FNMOC: Pretty far SW....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another thing about Andrew was that he did not become a hurricane until he was north of PR, and did not become a major hurricane until he was near the Bahamas. 06L will likely be a hurricane in 48 hours or so, and could easily reach major hurricane status in the next 4-5 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's a hurricane at 216. Coordinates are 27N 63W. It's drifting west ever so slowly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One thing that does seem clear though is that in 48 hours a strong wave will move off the coast of Africa, and provides us with our next best chance for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


explain Andrew then


That isn't a bad example, but I do not see the ridge building the same manner as was the case with Andrew, plus Andrew's track appears slightly farther south than 06L's would appear to be on that image. Difficult situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Okay, I just looked at the better image xcool posted. At that point in time at that location it would be very difficult for any Florida/SC landfall. Any landfall would probably be NC or north.


explain Andrew then
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that map is tilted though like the north atlantic loop is on the ssd site

it is not parallel to the Carolinas, it is parallel to S Florida


Okay, I just looked at the better image xcool posted. At that point in time at that location it would be very difficult for any Florida/SC landfall. Any landfall would probably be NC or north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow on the raliegh site it just updated from yesterdays 00Z run to todays at 144 hours, what a difference in location
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
At 186 it has begun to more very, very slowly westward under the ridge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2617. 882MB
Me either btwntx08 im buying more the HWRF model that turns it westward NE of Puerto Rico.any new images of the ECMWF model?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Hard to see very good on the image xcool posted, but you can see the storm is NE of PR at that time and parallel with the Carolinas already. And there is the distinct chance that this will be a major hurricane at that point.


that map is tilted though like the north atlantic loop is on the ssd site

it is not parallel to the Carolinas, it is parallel to S Florida
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
2615. xcool


better image
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting philliesrock:

It could still go out to sea, you're right, but it wouldn't be very easy. Look at that giant ridge forming north of our storm. That would force most non-major hurricanes on a more westerly track.


Hard to see very good on the image xcool posted, but you can see the storm is NE of PR at that time and parallel with the Carolinas already. And there is the distinct chance that this will be a major hurricane at that point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
The thing is though, 06L could strengthen quickly, pulling it more northerly.


Still, it would probably have trouble poking through that ridge.

ECMWF update: at 180 it's nearly stationary at 26N 60W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2611. xcool
btwntx08 .not good.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting extreme236:
The thing is though, 06L could strengthen quickly, pulling it more northerly.



it could, doesn't mean it will
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
The thing is though, 06L could strengthen quickly, pulling it more northerly.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Could easily still go out to sea from that location.

It could still go out to sea, you're right, but it wouldn't be very easy. Look at that giant ridge forming north of our storm. That would force most non-major hurricanes on a more westerly track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2606. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:


ECMWF west


Could easily still go out to sea from that location.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
right now im not buying the gfdl

I'm not either. The GFDL is basically taking TD6 into a giant ridge of high pressure. Plus, I think it may be strengthening it too quickly, which would pull it north earlier than anticipated. Right now I'm leaning mostly towards the Euro ensembles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:


ECMWF west


I don't even see a weakness on that image until you reach the midwestern USA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2600. xcool


ECMWF west
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
philliesrock, you can't compare 84hrs to 84hrs. There is a 12 hrs difference. in your runs

I wasn't doing that. I had the 84 hour 0z open in one tab, and the 96 hour 12z open in another tab. But now, the differences in the runs are so massive that I closed my 12z tab for good. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EP, 09, 2010082206, , BEST, 0, 137N, 940W, 30, 1005, TD

atcf says TD 9-E is also still a TD
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
00Z GFDL is the only model SO FAR that harmlessly recurves 06L away from land out of the 00Z update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2593. xcool
Hurricanes101 wnw ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting scott39:
If TD6 gets to 20N before 60W, I will live off crows until next season!


I think you'd better start stocking up then. It will be at 20n way before reaching 60w
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2591. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
AL, 06, 2010082206, , BEST, 0, 118N, 330W, 30, 1007, TD

atcf says still a TD, 11.8N too
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
Hour 126, the ECMWF has this storm at 22N 55W and strengthening. It should have no problem sneaking under the ridge and beginning to move west later in the run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2588. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2587. 882MB
Can anyone post images of the new ECMWF model and the new NOGAPS they seem to be trending further south, and with the comment i wrote 5 minutes ago this could come into play with the HWRF model which at the end of the run it turns future Danielle westwards!any comments on this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Link?

It's a pay site so I can't post the live 6-hourly images. I will provide you with this, though:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2636 - 2586

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.