95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2685. 34chip
Quoting StormW:


Well, forecast steering layers shows the trof that's supposed to break the ridge on it's western periphery, but a quick look appears as if we will have another left shift in model guidance, and this may pose a greater threat to Bermuda. Just saying.
I see now. lol Thank you! I hope it don't come to South Florida or anywhere for that matter.
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2683. 34chip
Quoting StormW:
LMAO...GFS with the trof

ECMWF (left) showing a REX Block:



THE REX BLOCK

Storm so this mean it may not curve out and may move more west?? Thank you!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
does anyone else notice a possible center relocation with td6

actually I see what u see...hmmmmm Im at 12.5 and 35.5 then
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Mornin' Surfie. Diamond Dogs?

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Quoting reedzone:
00Z NOGAPS = Hurricane Frances repeat. (not out of the woods by no means)
yeah I tried to make this point last night and pretty much got reported and beat to sh t; it was just my feeling on TD 6 but I think most missed the point.
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2678. tkeith
Mornin Surfmom :)

goin for a run?

I got an early tee time...tryin to beat the heat!
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possible center relocation at 11n/36w ?? ck vis floater
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Quoting Cotillion:


Don't worry about it, models often overamplify the extratropical cyclones that head across the North Atlantic, particularly the CMC.

The winds are much more dependent on the environment and how tight the isobars are compacted rather than a stricter wind-to-pressure ratio that you'll find with tropical cyclones, as they're both different (of course, TCs also vary, but you can at least make sure loose guidelines). The system that recently brought 70mph winds to the Western Hebrides was only 993mb (though later deepening to 985mb). I've seen 960mb type gales that brought similar conditions.

By the way I may be the only one..but whenever I read your posts I do so in a british accent.
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2675. tkeith
TD6 hasn't ramped up quite as quickly as some thought...(incluing me)

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2674. surfmom
whoaaa Tkeith, some big "dogs" exiting Africa.....looks like they got some bite to 'em
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Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:


Morning Cotillion, have you seen the deep low pressure area that gfs and cmc are forecasting to hit Britain? That could bring some very strong winds to us.


Don't worry about it, models often overamplify the extratropical cyclones that head across the North Atlantic, particularly the CMC.

The winds are much more dependent on the environment and how tight the isobars are compacted rather than a stricter wind-to-pressure ratio that you'll find with tropical cyclones, as they're both different (of course, TCs also vary, but you can at least make some loose guidelines). The system that recently brought 70mph winds to the Western Hebrides was only 993mb (though later deepening to 985mb). I've seen 960mb type gales that brought similar conditions.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
does anyone else notice a possible center relocation with td6

I dunno but that thing after 6 sure looks like 7
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2671. tkeith
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does anyone else notice a possible center relocation with td6
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2668. tkeith
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morning, i think td6 is intensifying rapidly and is already a moderate TS
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Quoting 1992Andrew:
Good morning Wunderground-


Looks to me the depression is moving south of forecast points. Anyone here willing to explain what the nhc is going to do with the next advisory?

dont know much but I can say this... the models keep going further left and we dont know what will happen after day 5.... maybe someone can lend further info cause a ridge building can still take something westward ho!
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Quoting Cotillion:
Good morning Trackers of Tropical Depression Six Worldwide.


Morning Cotillion, have you seen the deep low pressure area that gfs and cmc are forecasting to hit Britain? That could bring some very strong winds to us.
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2664. IKE
11.0N....32.1W center at 5pm EDST.
11.3N....32.6W center at 11pm EDST.
12.1N....33.4W center at 5am EDST.

It's moved 1.1N and 1.3W. Just south of a NW movement.
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Good morning Wunderground-


Looks to me the depression is moving south of forecast points. Anyone here willing to explain what the nhc is going to do with the next advisory?
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Quoting Cotillion:
Good morning Trackers of Tropical Depression Six Worldwide.

hahaha.... buenos dias cotillion
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2661. surfmom
Morning Cot....& others addicted to weather or searching for waves
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Good morning Trackers of Tropical Depression Six Worldwide.
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Wow, that wave coming off Africa is MASSIVE!
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Looks like we have two TD6s, 06W in the Western Pacific, 06L in the Atlantic.
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2656. smuldy
Quoting aspectre:
21Aug - 06amGMT - 10.5n30.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1009mb
21Aug - 12pmGMT - 10.6n31.0w - - 25knots . . . . 1009mb
Invest95L becomes TropicalDepressionSix
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8n31.8w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
21Aug - 09pmGMT - 11.0n32.1w - - 30mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.1
22Aug - 12amGMT - 11.2n32.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.8n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007 mb - NHC.Adv.3

Copy&paste 11.0n32.1w-11.2n32.3w, 11.2n32.3w-11.3n32.6w, 11.3n32.6w-11.8n33.0w, 11.8n33.0w-12.1n33.4w, hex, bda, sid, tuv into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours

TD6 has been most recently heading 7.7degrees west of NorthWest. I suspect it's gonna hafta turn even more westward to get closer to Bermuda than to Portugal.
all depends on whether the gfs is right and the trough lifts it or if last night's euro starts the trend of high pressure ridging forcing it westward (the run kept it offshore near new england and possibly heading towards nova scotia like a gillion hours out so take it with a grain of salt); gfs seemed to show the same ridging on its run yet inexplicably had the storm ignoring the higher pressure and bowling through it. Should be an interesting storm to track if any of the ridging actually builds in.
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21Aug - 06amGMT - 10.5n30.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1009mb
21Aug - 12pmGMT - 10.6n31.0w - - 25knots . . . . 1009mb
Invest95L becomes TropicalDepressionSix
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8n31.8w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
21Aug - 09pmGMT - 11.0n32.1w - - 30mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.1
22Aug - 12amGMT - 11.2n32.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.8n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3

Copy&paste 11.0n32.1w-11.2n32.3w, 11.2n32.3w-11.3n32.6w, 11.3n32.6w-11.8n33.0w, 11.8n33.0w-12.1n33.4w, hex, bda, sid, tuv into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours

TD6 has been most recently heading 7.7degrees west of NorthWest. I suspect it's gonna hafta turn even more westward before obtaining a path that will take TD6 closer to Bermuda than to Morocco.
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Morning all.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP092010
9:00 AM UTC August 22 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Storm Status

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression NINE (1005 hPa) located at 13.7N 94.4W or 205 NM southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 13.8N 96.5W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Mexico coast from Salina Cruz westward to Lagunas de Chacahua
Morning HGW. I note at NHC that this one's forecast to become a hurricane, somewhat down the coast. No landfall yet forecast, but that coast paralleling could cause rip current problems....
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2652. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP092010
9:00 AM UTC August 22 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Storm Status

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression NINE (1005 hPa) located at 13.7N 94.4W or 205 NM southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 13.8N 96.5W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Mexico coast from Salina Cruz westward to Lagunas de Chacahua
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Apparently NHC-ATCF TC reports come out for 00 , 06 , 12 , and 18 hours GMT,
while the NHC TC advisories come out for 03 , 09 , 15 , and 21 hours GMT.
Since the WeatherUnderground's default clock uses GMT and most WUbers are civilians,
I've converted the 24hour(zulu)clock into am and pm GMT.

21Aug - 06amGMT - 10.5N30.3W - - 25knots . . . . 1009mb
21Aug - 12pmGMT - 10.6N31.0W - - 25knots . . . . 1009mb
Invest95L becomes TropicalDepressionSix
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8n31.8w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
21Aug - 09pmGMT - 11.0n32.1w - - 30mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.1
22Aug - 12amGMT - 11.2n32.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.8n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF

Copy&paste 10.8n31.8w-11.0n32.1w, 11.0n32.1w-11.2n32.3w, 11.2n32.3w-11.3n32.6w, 11.3n32.6w-11.8n33.0w, hex, bda, sid, tuv into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours

Considering that its last heading was 6.8degrees north of NorthWest, TD6 looks set to be recurved for a landfall in Lisbon,Portugal ;-D More seriously, TD6 is gonna hafta turn a lot more westward to avoid having its strength drained by the dry air north of it.
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2650. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
1st -- I think I screwed up the NHC-ATCF link to 95L in my last report
2nd -- I know I screwed up by assuming mph when it should have been knots. NHC-ATCF rounds windspeeds to the nearest 5knots, while the NHC TropicalCyclone advisories round to the nearest 5mph.

So a last look at Invest95L before concentrating on TD6
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - - Pressure
19Aug - 12pmGMT - 11.0N23.6W - - 25knots - - - 1009mb Invest95L
19Aug - 06pmGMT - 11.0N24.1W - - 25knots - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 12amGMT - 11.0N24.7W - - 25knots - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 06amGMT - 11.0N25.3W - - 25knots - - - 1008mb
20Aug - 12pmGMT - 11.0N26.0W - - 25knots - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.4N29.0W - - 25knots - - - 1009mb *was11.0N27.0Wthen11.1N26.6W*
21Aug - 00amGMT - 10.4N29.6W - - 25knots - - - 1009mb *was11.1N27.1W*
21Aug - 06amGMT - 10.5N30.3W - - 25knots - - - 1009mb *was11.2N27.6W*
21Aug - 12pmGMT - 10.6N31.0W - - 25knots - - - 1009mb
*before NHC reevaluated&altered 95L's path*
According to the ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al952010.invest link above, NHC-ATFC called TD6 3hours before the NHC advisory. I think that's a revision after the fact, but can't remember for sure.
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2648. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2636. xcool 6:56 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
>

vs gfs


September 1st...

Gee that sure is a long time away for a forecast outlook.
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2647. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST August 22 2010
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In The South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 15.7N 114.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.5N 110.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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2646. deepee
Based on no scientific fact, and pure gut feeling. It will be a Gulf storm.
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2645. 882MB
Im out too,goodnight everybody!
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I might be here tomorrow morning/afternoon with live model updates. The 0z Euro Ensembles are coming out in an hour but I'm probably not staying up for them.
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2643. xcool
bye rob
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
2642. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
That is 240 hours away and we still don't know for sure where it is going, so it will be a few more days before we have a better idea. Will check in tomorrow.
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ok well time to hit the hay

have to see what the models are showing tomorrow
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7395
2638. xcool
really about interesting make 2 time ECMWF,shows going to fl .imo imo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Quoting philliesrock:
Extrapolating the 240-hour ECMWF, I'd guess it hits Bermuda, misses New England, and slams into Canada.


Im not so sure about that, here is the 240 hour, look at the ridge to its north on xcools graphic below lol

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2636. xcool


vs gfs
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.