95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2736. IKE
2005 season had storm #10 start up today...Jose. And tomorrow...it will be the 5 year anniversary of the start of.... Katrina, giving the 2005 season 11 named storms....



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2734. surfmom
2729 - Geeze those storms look like pinballs shooting off of Africa
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2656 smuldy "All depends on whether the GFS is right and the trough lifts it or if last night's Euro starts the trend of high pressure ridging forcing it westward (the run kept it offshore near New England and possibly heading towards Nova Scotia like a gillion hours out so take it with a grain of salt). GFS seemed to show the same ridging on its run yet inexplicably had the storm ignoring the higher pressure and bowling through it. Should be an interesting storm to track if any of the ridging actually builds in."

Yeah, but it's gonna be interesting either way. (BTW, changed Portugal to Morocco; lack that "gut feeling" about how far north Europe is compared to the US)
Here's the thing... During the last model runs I looked at, the tracks were initially running north of what was actually happening. This time the tracks (of the models I am familiar with) are initially running west of (excluding CMC which is running way north of).
Even the XTRP looks like it's been straightlined west of TD6's recent path. And I thought that there was a high (continuing to strengthen) relatively nearby (mostly)west of the XTRP path (though that might be a mismemory, or already obsolete since I last looked). I'da thought that that high would force TD6 to turn northward til eastward unless its path were heading west of the XTRP track (which doesn't appear to be the case so far).

meh... I shouldn't even be trying to play the prediction game: haven't put in enough time&thought devoted to learning the patterns. Don't even know enough about navigating the hard weather-sites to find the right maps to check my memories.
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2731. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike, I have some friends visiting Bermuda in a few days can you hold the line of the track away from there? Link

Enjoy the tune one of my favorites.


Must to have been filmed the same time this great Toto song was...Link

***I got 37 thumbs-up in the comments section.***


Looks like I got between 1-2 inches of rain yesterday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2730. surfmom
Quoting mrpuertorico:


flat weekend :( sigh


my condolences - truly, I understand your pain....

Local Surf report/Gulfster SWFL

Partly cloudy start this morning with slow moving popcorn style clouds moving in off the Gulf. A frontal boundary will stall out over Northern Fl. and increase our rain chances a bit more, but not aid in our thirst for surf. Sea breezes will form in the afternoons, but probably not enough for the kiters to get in a sesh. Gulf Temp 91

We're all going bonkers over here...I'm looking at boat wake or ankle biters breaking over a shoal
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Hello, slight activity is having on the basins of the oceans.

In less than 48 hours, we've had two tropical depressions in the Eastern Pacific, and it is very possible that the depression 09 E in the Eastern Pacific is at least tropical storm, and is somewhat more complicated but we may have a weak Category 1 hurricane .

Also, in the Atlantic and we had the depression 06 L, also believe that during this day we have Tropical Storm Danielle.

On the other hand we must be attentive to the wave that is about to exit from Africa, last night had a very good, if it continues like this, it is possible that in the next part of the NHC begins to follow, and although it is somewhat we could have more complicated invest 96 L.

Greetings to all from Spain.
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2727. surfmom
Quoting tkeith:
I use a treadmill in the AC :)

My dogs think I'm crazy, the wife takes them walking. They look at me as if they're thinking...*poor fool*

BAWHAHAAAAAA - I can just imagine that look~ I get a similar one when jumping in a pool (mine hates water)
YOU ARE CHEATING (or smarter) - lol- RUNNING W/AC - wish I could do the treadmill thing.... never satisfies...I think the "wolfy" or "mare" in me needs to make distance over terrain & there's no fire station water fountain pitstop for motivation.

Heat & humidity together have been Oppressive - even so no complaints here..... I prefer the heat over the cold
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Good morning all!

Storm...any quick thoughts on the wave behind TD6? Also, can you shine some light on the "Frannie-Caster" scenario for TD6?
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094

WTNT80 EGRR 220600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.08.2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 112.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2010 21.0N 112.0W WEAK
12UTC 22.08.2010 21.4N 113.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 93.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2010 13.5N 93.4W MODERATE
12UTC 22.08.2010 13.2N 94.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2010 13.7N 95.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2010 14.2N 96.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 24.08.2010 14.7N 97.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.08.2010 15.4N 99.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.08.2010 16.1N 100.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 25.08.2010 16.3N 102.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2010 16.3N 103.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2010 17.0N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2010 16.7N 105.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2010 17.2N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2010 17.7N 106.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 32.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2010 11.3N 32.4W WEAK
12UTC 22.08.2010 12.3N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2010 13.5N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2010 14.6N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2010 15.5N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2010 16.9N 45.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.08.2010 17.9N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2010 18.8N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2010 20.3N 53.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2010 21.5N 56.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2010 23.0N 57.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2010 24.2N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2010 25.5N 60.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220449
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Quoting surfmom:
ahhhh Barbados & PR..........we're sooo flat on the Gulf of Mexico... you guys have waves????.....

Isabella, PR has been calling me for weeks


flat weekend :( sigh
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Ike, I have some friends visiting Bermuda in a few days can you hold the line of the track away from there? Link

Enjoy the tune one of my favorites.
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2721. surfmom
ahhhh Barbados & PR..........we're sooo flat on the Gulf of Mexico... you guys have waves????.....

Isabella, PR has been calling me for weeks
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2720. tkeith
Quoting surfmom:
Swinging at Golf balls TKeith? -- good to get the work out done b/4 11:00 -- after that it's like bacon' in the frying pan

Been really brutal running here - total discipline --you'd think one would burn calories faster - but I haven't found that to be true
I use a treadmill in the AC :)

My dogs think I'm crazy, the wife takes them walking. They look at me as if they're thinking...*poor fool*
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Quoting StormW:
Models...HAH!

The current motion of WNW is being induced by the weakness west of the ridge...however, look at the flow TD6 is embedded in. That's all I have to say about that.

LINK
Good morning StormW and others. It looks to me like it is already passing south of the forecast points.
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2716. surfmom
Swinging at Golf balls TKeith? -- good to get the work out done b/4 11:00 -- after that it's like bacon' in the frying pan

Been really brutal running here - total discipline --you'd think one would burn calories faster - but I haven't found that to be true
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so any thoughts for the leewards stormw will we be safe?
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2714. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


We covered it sometime yesterday. However, those 2 layers I posted, is what this system will be steered by during the next 24-36 hours.
pretty much west for a while then.
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Good Morning Storm and other early riser's from BARBADOS.
Present Conditions:
Scattered Clouds
TEMP: 28 °C
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 26 km/h / 7.2 m/s from the ESE
Pressure: 1014 hPa (Rising)
Heat Index: 32 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 365 m
Scattered Clouds 426 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 56 m

TD 6 is still looking good and getting ready to fire up some more concentrated convection this morning and possibly named by 11:00am. I still think that her track is slightly South of her Westerly track. Would love to hear your thought on TD6 this morning?
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There apparent fish storms are fun to watch...they don't impact land masses except perhaps Bermuda. As the computer models in general do a very good job of predicting future paths, this one looks to steer clear of the U.S. by a wide margin despite the current steering currents in the different levels of the atmosphere.
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2710. teammc
Good Morning, StormW

How long before you know which of the 3 different scenarios play out. Also waiting what lesson you might give today. Thank you for your update yesterday.
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2709. tkeith
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Apparently you missed writing class as well......
There was a writing class too?

I guess I did...
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Quoting tkeith:
2702. StormW 5:53 AM CDT on August 22, 2010

The higher level steering takes it more west? Dont a stronger storm get steered more by the higher level winds?

We didn't cover this in yesterdays class...did we?

Apparently you missed writing class as well...... :-O
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2706. surfmom
Quoting 954FtLCane:

By the way I may be the only one..but whenever I read your posts I do so in a british accent.


LOL - I do too - and it's lovely specially first thing in the morning : )

Praise the local Rain God -- I have rain POUNDING the sky lights as I type.... I may go out and RE-FRESH.....
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2705. tkeith
2702. StormW 5:53 AM CDT on August 22, 2010

The higher level steering takes it more west? Dont a stronger storm get steered more by the higher level winds?

We didn't cover this in yesterdays class...did we?
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TD6 looks mighty impressive...I'm thinking a TS at 11:00 AM.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
2701. tkeith
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storm
Make sure you put that in your video this time Jason, You left that out of the last one :)
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2700. IKE
Quoting tkeith:


Looks like I might get to enjoy the Panhandle some during my vacation Ike...


Hope you have a great time.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
06z GFS slams a major hurricane into Bermuda.
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good morning, all. Fresh pot of coffee on the burner if anyone needs another cup.

I see we are still discussing the ridging and troughing, LOL. Will have to go back a page or two and see if I can catch back up to the topic du jour.
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2697. tkeith
Quoting IKE:
Nice thing about the 6Z GFS....shows no threats to the northern GOM through Sept. 7th. And...doesn't really show anything else significant on the latest run. No other Danielle's.


Looks like I might get to enjoy the Panhandle some during my vacation Ike...
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Slightly North and East from first verification:

Forecast:
AL 06 2010082118 03 OFCL 12 115N 332W 35 0 TS

Verification:
AL 06 2010082206 01 CARQ 0 118N 330W 30 1007 TD


So 0.3 North of forecast, 0.2 East


You're correct. Suppose it was a moment of wischasting. Anyway, seems like the depression will have to make a turn three days from now. Turns are always tricky. Let's see what happens. For now, it is moving on a general west north west track, kinda like what the NHC is forecasting.
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Quoting Cotillion:
Good morning Trackers of Tropical Depression Six Worldwide.

Good morning.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
2692. IKE
Nice thing about the 6Z GFS....shows no threats to the northern GOM through Sept. 7th. And...doesn't really show anything else significant on the latest run. No other Danielle's.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2691. tkeith
You're up early Jason...
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2689. K8eCane
Page
WITH PHOTONO PHOTO
FACEBOOKYAHOONEWSVINEDEL.ICIO.US
Onslow Bay looked at for first N.C. wind farm
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Quoting 1992Andrew:
Good morning Wunderground-


Looks to me the depression is moving south of forecast points. Anyone here willing to explain what the nhc is going to do with the next advisory?


Slightly North and East from first verification:

Forecast:
AL 06 2010082118 03 OFCL 12 115N 332W 35 0 TS

Verification:
AL 06 2010082206 01 CARQ 0 118N 330W 30 1007 TD


So 0.3 North of forecast, 0.2 East
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Not too surprised that it's not a TS yet. Right call to raise it to TD, but it was still surprisingly early. Perhaps Blake felt a little scorned by decreasing the % at the beginning of the day. The NHC aren't usually hasty, shall we say, with designating lows in the far Eastern Atlantic.

And feel free, 954FtLCane.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.