95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2786. surfmom
ohhhh IKE - west end girls ....*smile* a blast from my past 319 west 48th ....been there
wasn't too aware of weather then....other then RAIN meant a cab.
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2785. surfmom
Pottery!!! any Rum in your Cafe' today? Might be time to toss a few boulders - we're suffering wave withdrawal over here....

Morning Drizzle has has now turned us into a steam sauna - streets are steaming

why I love weather....it makes waves
Link

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Quoting IKE:


Great band.

And this one may be appropriate on here.......west end girls...


For the evening shift... Kids in America
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Exactly 24 hours ago, TD6 looked like the image in Dr. Master's blog above. That is pretty respectable development for one day.
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Ah, I see. Ike, you think we may have a westend girl holding a gun to our heads? Hmmm? lol
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2781. Vero1
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pottery:

Yeh mon! Almost makes me want to go out and do my run...not.
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2779. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike their only number one hit right?


I think you're correct...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


And that's a shame.

I had 1.75 inches of rain yesterday at my location and 1 rather large branch that fell off of a tree.


self pruning again? Not sure how much rain we got last night - enough to soak any dead limbs 50 feet up - just hoping they fall straight down.
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2775. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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2774. Vero1
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Quoting weatherwart:
Ike, maybe this song is more apropos, today?

Link


Ike their only number one hit right?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417


TD6ForecastDiscussion5AM

From 8 AM NHC:
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 10N20W. THEN RESUMES OVER NEAR 8N39W 10N49W 8N55W AND CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC...IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NE OF T.D. SIX NEAR 14N30W TO 17N21W. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO T.D. SIX. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST E OF 24W FROM 6N-15N.

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2769. pottery
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Good indicator of more rain/ick to come at my house is how many varieties of birds show up at the feeder hung just inside the porch overhang. There are a couple of dozen already lined up (on queue?) in the crepe myrtle and hydrangea this morning and the morning doves are already underneath cleaning up the scraps- not a good sign, LOL

OOPS - mourning doves, LOL - though they do tend to show up early in the day!
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2766. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 12.1N 33.4W AT 22/0900
UTC...OR LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 08 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND PROVIDE FOR MINIMAL WIND
SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

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2765. IKE
Quoting 1992Andrew:


Difference between your generation and our generation is that *good* music is not popular. You have to go look for it. Mostly indie.


And that's a shame.

I had 1.75 inches of rain yesterday at my location and 1 rather large branch that fell off of a tree.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Ike, maybe this song is more apropos, today?

Link
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Good Morning Bloggers!

I decided to hang here instead of taking my morning run. The humidity is 100% and it's already 80 degrees...I count that as a swim and I'm not training for a triathlon so I'll hit the treadmill later. Looks like our storm is trying to nudge more westward according to StormW's post. Seems this system may hold together instead of doing the naked swirl thing that most of our other systems have done so far this season. This summer has definitely been a lesson on the impact of other factors in development besides SST and La Nina influences!
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2762. pottery
Quoting CoopsWife:


In spirit, Pottery, in spirit, LOL. My thunder boomer just exited Cape Henry, south of the Chesapeake Bay. :)

I am hearing rumbles to my south again.
The sky is Heavy......
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2761. breald
I guess the models are like the stock market. If you look at them everyday it will drive you crazy because they are always changing.
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2760. pottery
Ah!!
Thanks Jeff.
Hadnt seen that pointy one in a while....
heheheheh
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Quoting IKE:


Must to have been filmed the same time this great Toto song was...Link

***I got 37 thumbs-up in the comments section.***


Looks like I got between 1-2 inches of rain yesterday.


Difference between your generation and our generation is that *good* music is not popular. You have to go look for it. Mostly indie.
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Morning. Leftover psketti for breakfast. The rain has stopped. I'm good. How's everyone doing this fine morning?
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2757. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:
Look what I found.... a strong ULL North of TD6.



moving sw.

Well, that wasnt the image I was refering to.
But it's a good one anyhow.
Hmmmm!
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Quoting pottery:

Sounds like we are neighbours.....


In spirit, Pottery, in spirit, LOL. My thunder boomer just exited Cape Henry, south of the Chesapeake Bay. :)
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2753. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:
Blog sure is slow this morning....



Action:
Quote
| Ignore User



....must be time to post a Graph of something.......
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2751. pottery
Quoting CoopsWife:
The worst of this morning's storm has passed, still a few grumbles of thunder and it looks as if we'll have mostly cloudy conditions all day - keeps the temps down just enough that they cancelled the heat index advisory.

Sounds like we are neighbours.....
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2750. breald
Quoting StormW:


Which way is the satellite image moving, as far as flow? (post 2711)


It looks to be moving south and west. Am I looking at this correctly?

Also, we are having rain the next three days here in the Northeast. Does this have anything to do with the fronts that are to push the storm out to sea?
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2749. pottery
Quoting Cotillion:


G'day Pottery.

Enjoy tomorrow (if he remembers correctly).

I can see that your Memory has not yet been affected by Antiquity, Abuse and, er, um, ...cant remember the other word.
But thanks so much for the Good Wishes!
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The worst of this morning's storm has passed, still a few grumbles of thunder and it looks as if we'll have mostly cloudy conditions all day - keeps the temps down just enough that they cancelled the heat index advisory.
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning, weather-Geeks!
The sky flashed and grumbled for long periods last night and early this morning here.
A hazy, milky, dawn has given way to a hazy, dank morning.
Looks to be that kind of a day.
No Complaints at all........

Thanks for the Coffee, Coops.


G'day Pottery.

Enjoy tomorrow (if he remembers correctly).
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2746. pottery
Quoting CoopsWife:
Welcome, Pottery. There are some leftover blueberry muffins, too...

yep, Surfmom - the wave train seems to have acquired a bit more energy the past few days, hasn't it?

OH! I missed the muffins.
Thanks....
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Looks like we will have Danielle sometime today. Last year, we had the "D" storm, Danny, on August 26.
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Welcome, Pottery. There are some leftover blueberry muffins, too...

yep, Surfmom - the wave train seems to have acquired a bit more energy the past few days, hasn't it?
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Quoting IKE:
2005 season had storm #10 start up today...Jose. And tomorrow...it will be the 5 year anniversary of the start of.... Katrina, giving the 2005 season 11 named storms....





Though Katrina wasn't named 'til the 24th.

*pedantry*

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
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2740. pottery
Good Morning, weather-Geeks!
The sky flashed and grumbled for long periods last night and early this morning here.
A hazy, milky, dawn has given way to a hazy, dank morning.
Looks to be that kind of a day.
No Complaints at all........

Thanks for the Coffee, Coops.
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Quoting tkeith:
2702. StormW 5:53 AM CDT on August 22, 2010

The higher level steering takes it more west? Dont a stronger storm get steered more by the higher level winds?

We didn't cover this in yesterdays class...did we?

The following is from a 2003 article by Steve Lyons:

  • Steering currents are defined as the vertically averaged (and pressure weighted) wind that pushes a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane) along. It is very difficult if not impossible to determine the exact contributions a specific layer of winds has for that motion, but we can estimate "steering" IF we know what the winds are surrounding a tropical cyclone at some levels in the atmosphere.
  • We routinely know surrounding winds in the low levels (about 1,500 to 2,000 feet) and near the surface, and in the upper levels about 30,000-45,000 feet. Buoys, ships, satellites and occasionally aircraft provide these observations. Obviously, knowing how "steering" will change in time is critically important to forecasting the track of a tropical cyclone.
  • There are occasions when low-level and upper-level winds are very different in direction and speed (a "shearing/sheared" environment). It turns out weak tropical cyclones routinely are steered by lower-level winds more so than are hurricanes and strong hurricanes which are typically deep and hence steered by deep layer averaged winds. Upper level wind steering (from about 25,000-50,000 feet) becomes very important in strong hurricanes.
  • In "steering" situations where wind changes speed and direction with height (sheared environment), it becomes impossible to forecast "steering" change without forecasting tropical cyclone depth/strength/intensity change!
  • Therefore, there are many situations where a tropical cyclone will move in one direction if it is weak and remains weak, though it could move in a different direction--with possibly a different speed--if it were stronger and deeper.

Any statement about track MUST be tied to intensity and intensity change in sheared environments. It is my forecast method to always realize that in sheared environments one cannot forecast track without forecasting intensity.
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Quoting surfmom:


my condolences - truly, I understand your pain....

Local Surf report/Gulfster SWFL

Partly cloudy start this morning with slow moving popcorn style clouds moving in off the Gulf. A frontal boundary will stall out over Northern Fl. and increase our rain chances a bit more, but not aid in our thirst for surf. Sea breezes will form in the afternoons, but probably not enough for the kiters to get in a sesh. Gulf Temp 91�

We're all going bonkers over here...I'm looking at boat wake or ankle biters breaking over a shoal


to sad really
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2736. IKE
2005 season had storm #10 start up today...Jose. And tomorrow...it will be the 5 year anniversary of the start of.... Katrina, giving the 2005 season 11 named storms....



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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