95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2836. aquak9
g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide, handsome men and women worth winking at.

I have a coupla questions. Yep, they're weather related. If I post them will anyone try to answer them for me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Be back tonight.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SYNOPSIS AUGUST 22, 2010 ISSUED 8:00 A.M.


Thanks for the great update! I live in Deerfield Beach and will stay a little more alert since it looks like it isn't recurving as much as the original models were showing.
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we are all doom
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow. We are a bunch of junkies now aren't we?

Get all into a model-fueled frenzy every 6 hours, then come crashing down shortly thereafter ... rinse. repeat.

Thanks for making me lol before even finishing first a.m. coffee. You are most amusing hypervigilante on this blog.
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Jeff, you're flirting with disaster.
(expect the bans to start coming fast and furious) although looks like the West End Guy is still sleeping...

CVMonsoonTrough

Have a Wunderful day EveryWun.
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2830. PRROLLT
Quoting StormW:
Be back tonight.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SYNOPSIS AUGUST 22, 2010 ISSUED 8:00 A.M.


Thank you Storm!
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2829. Vero1
Here comes "Little Brother".

Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
SHIPs bringing it up to 77kts now.

75kt by 72... 77 by 96... 77 by 120.
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2827. Hhunter
Hypervigilance sounds like global warming testas...
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Birds are in hiding now - my cue to shut down for a bit til the current storms pass. Back later this afternoon to see what TD6 (ATL) is doing.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
http://www.muckyduck.com/webcam.htm

Check out the nice storm off of Captiva. Live.

Almost a spout forming


thats where I have to go today!!! ughh
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12Z Update

AL 06 2010082212 BEST 0 122N 339W 30 1007 TD

Edit: Add

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 33.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 32.3W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10453
2822. Vero1
Quoting Chicklit:



Guess we are, Jeff...


I remember all too well!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Soon-to-be Danielle, trailed by possibly-to-be Earl:

Click for larger image:
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
2820. Hhunter
Quoting StormW:
Models...HAH!

The current motion of WNW is being induced by the weakness west of the ridge...however, look at the flow TD6 is embedded in. That's all I have to say about that.

LINK



pretty much all the way to the islands it's a westward flow..East Coast stay alert.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Who is on Frances comparison duty today?



Guess we are, Jeff...
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22/1145 UTC 12.2N 34.0W T2.0/2.0 06L

May need a bit more yet.
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Increasing threat to Bermuda. 00z EURO has her south of Bermuda at 940mb in 240 hours. That is a slow solution. Also upper level low NNW of TD6 is moving west not southwest.Link
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Quoting Abacosurf:
http://www.muckyduck.com/webcam.htm

Check out the nice storm off of Captiva. Live.

Almost a spout forming


Nice. I was thinking of running to the beach for a bit of spout-watching this morning; the setup seems almost perfect...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
2814. IKE
Fixing to be Danielle. I'll give the models credit for forecasting a system. I got thrown off yesterday with them with the 7am TWO. Since then 95L became TD6 and about to be Danielle.

NHC has it near 25N and 55W in a few days...well east and north of the islands. From everything I've read and seen it looks like a threat to Bermuda.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
http://www.muckyduck.com/webcam.htm

Check out the nice storm off of Captiva. Live.

Almost a spout forming
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2811. pottery
Rumbles are getting closer>>>>>
BBL, after I complete a List Of Things, issued by a Higher Authority...
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Quoting StormW:
Be back tonight.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SYNOPSIS AUGUST 22, 2010 ISSUED 8:00 A.M.


Thanks, Storm, for the excellent (as always) synopsis. Have a nice day...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
Looks like a CDO has developed over the LLC. Dry air to the east is a problem, but probably won't stop this intensifying further today with convection covering the low level center, Danielle should be named today.
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The 5 a.m. NHC Discussion mentions a 'model spread.'

...RECENT CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA BUT YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/08...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.

A DEEP LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N41W THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT MORE DIVERGENT BUT SHOWS THE DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS.

THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED AT LATER FORECAST TIMES AS A RESULT OF A SLOWER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 12.1N 33.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 34.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.4N 36.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 39.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 47.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 52.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 55.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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2806. trey33
Quoting Neapolitan:


* - "Hypervigilance is an enhanced state of sensory sensitivity accompanied by an exaggerated intensity of behaviors whose purpose is to detect threats. Hypervigilance is also accompanied by a state of increased anxiety which can cause exhaustion. Other symptoms include: abnormally increased arousal, a high responsiveness to stimuli and a constant scanning of the environment for threats...People suffering from hypervigilance may become preoccupied with studying their environment for possible threats, causing them to lose connections with their family and friends. They will often have a difficult time getting to sleep or staying asleep." Source

Sound familiar? :-)


So now I know why I'm tired
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Anybody know where the "Stroms" are? JK is looking for them.


Wow! Now I'm wide awake... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
2802. IKE
Quoting surfmom:
ohhhh IKE - west end girls ....*smile* a blast from my past 319 west 48th ....been there
wasn't too aware of weather then....other then RAIN meant a cab.


Morning surfmom.


Quoting Cotillion:


For the evening shift... Kids in America


From down under....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2800. Vero1
.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
I don't want to sound harsh so early this fine Sunday morning, but I have a question: you guys do know that models are not data, right? A model that was wrong three hours ago in predicting a storm is just as much subject to error as another model predicting no storm now. For about the three millionth time here: one can't live and die just by the models. Storms form when the models don't call for them, and they fail to form when the models say they will; storms intensify when the models say they'll die, and they fade away to nothingness when the models call for a monster; they recurve when the models say they'll motor into the GoM, and they plow through the Caribbean when the models say they'll curve harmlessly to the northeast. In the field of psychology this is called hypervigilance*, and it's really, really unhealthy.

* - "Hypervigilance is an enhanced state of sensory sensitivity accompanied by an exaggerated intensity of behaviors whose purpose is to detect threats. Hypervigilance is also accompanied by a state of increased anxiety which can cause exhaustion. Other symptoms include: abnormally increased arousal, a high responsiveness to stimuli and a constant scanning of the environment for threats...People suffering from hypervigilance may become preoccupied with studying their environment for possible threats, causing them to lose connections with their family and friends. They will often have a difficult time getting to sleep or staying asleep." Source

Sound familiar? :-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13250
2793. IKE
Quoting CoopsWife:


self pruning again? Not sure how much rain we got last night - enough to soak any dead limbs 50 feet up - just hoping they fall straight down.


A strong hurricane and this place would be a mess.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2792. trey33
Quoting surfmom:

and maybe biting your nails


yes!!!
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2791. surfmom
Quoting StormW:
Here ya go! Everything you wanted to know about TD 6...but were afraid to ask. The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SYNOPSIS AUGUST 22, 2010 ISSUED 8:00 A.M.


ROTFL -- great opening - yup it's SHOWTIME!!
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2790. surfmom
Quoting trey33:


Thanks Storm! I've got a trip to the Bahamas planned in 10 days, I will be reading your reports closely!

and maybe biting your nails
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2788. surfmom
Quoting cloudy0day:
pottery:

Yeh mon! Almost makes me want to go out and do my run...not.


LOL no excuses - just do it - though yesterday felt like I was running behind an exhaust system for a furnace...... kinda like running with the devil -- hotter then hades
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2787. trey33
Quoting StormW:
Here ya go! Everything you wanted to know about TD 6...but were afraid to ask. The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SYNOPSIS AUGUST 22, 2010 ISSUED 8:00 A.M.


Thanks Storm! I've got a trip to the Bahamas planned in 10 days, I will be reading your reports closely!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2786. surfmom
ohhhh IKE - west end girls ....*smile* a blast from my past 319 west 48th ....been there
wasn't too aware of weather then....other then RAIN meant a cab.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.