95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2886 - 2836

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storms by next week.

Honestly Jason, I wish you go back to just posting your fantastic graphics and images. I have always defended you from adolescent bullying but this sort of the thing is getting old. The constant spouting of the same non-factual garbage has become tiresome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


CIMSS ADT is at 2.9 too, although NHC doesn't really rely on CIMSS for upgrades it's still interesting to know what all the different sites say.


I seem to vaguely recall they have mentioned CIMSS ADT in a tropical discussion before, so they do take it into account.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2884. IKE
Quoting Neapolitan:


Well, in all fairness, Ike agreed to answer before I did. Having said that: yes. If you're ever in doubt, go to this image and put a check in the box labelled "HDW-high"; the barbs will tell the story...


I would have posted the NHC discussion. I haven't really looked at that ULL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2883. aquak9
wow- thanks ya'll. Yesterday the mid-southern part of Fla looked anti-cyclonic to me. But today it looked like it was predicted to look.

So cool. See how easily amused I am.

Got another question, gotta figure out how to word it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2882. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
ok ya'll, I posted my 1st question. Ike, I was hoping that may be some LimpBiskit because after 40+ years I've kinda had enough lynryd skynryd.

But I did get to see them when I was 8 years old and they were still high school kids, playing at Robert. E Lee highschool auditoerium.


Sorry...you'll have to find a younger VJ.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TAFB at 3.0.. SAB at 2.0

A blend would give you a average of 2.5, should be enough to upgrade it.


CIMSS ADT is at 2.9 too, although NHC doesn't really rely on CIMSS for upgrades it's still interesting to know what all the different sites say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
ok, napoleon, thank you. First, looking at rb, is that a huge yet somewhat diffuse ULL offa the southeast coast of Florida?


Well, in all fairness, Ike agreed to answer before I did. Having said that: yes. If you're ever in doubt, go to this image and put a check in the box labelled "HDW-high"; the barbs will tell the story...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
Quoting Cotillion:
2010AUG22 123000 2.8 1002.0/ 0.0 / 41.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.84 -15.92 SHEAR N/A 12.28 33.84 FCST

22/1145 UTC 12.2N 34.0W T2.0/2.0 06L

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0

And fire away, Aqua.

:O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why the continuous comparison to just one storm. For every Frances there are ten then went out to sea.........

Quoting DestinJeff:
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANCES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

THEREAFTER...ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OR WEAKENS...MODELS ARE
UNANIMOUSLY REDEVELOPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FRANCES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT ON A TRACK BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN TOWARD THE WEST DEPENDING OF THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER
RIDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY MOVE THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS DEVELOP A
WEAKER RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WELL-NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS. IT
IS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A
FORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE
WILL BE INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2875. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:
ok, napoleon, thank you. First, looking at rb, is that a huge yet somewhat diffuse ULL offa the southeast coast of Florida?
i believe it is the remnants of a trough that split to our north and created some unstable conditions over the state the last two days
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks to you both.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2873. aquak9
ok ya'll, I posted my 1st question. Ike, I was hoping that may be some LimpBiskit because after 40+ years I've kinda had enough lynryd skynryd.

But I did get to see them when I was 8 years old and they were still high school kids, playing at Robert. E Lee highschool auditoerium.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Oooh, where did you find that?


ATCF Fix File


Format
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Oooh, where did you find that?


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2870. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 73W...PRODUCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT NE
FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE
CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO PROVIDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO A RATHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W...PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN
62W-70W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 25N
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N29W...MAINTAINING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 62W.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
ok, napoleon, thank you. First, looking at rb, is that a huge yet somewhat diffuse ULL offa the southeast coast of Florida?


Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2868. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:


ok then, I guess not.
if try is the keyword, yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Geez, so many depressions out there.

Six - Atlantic
Eight-E - East Pacific
Nine-E - East Pacific
Six - West Pacific

However as of the next advisory Eight-E will be taken down and Nine-E will be Frank.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TAFB at 3.0.. SAB at 2.0

A blend would give you a average of 2.5, should be enough to upgrade it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


AL 06 201008221145 DVTS 1220N 3400W SAB 2020 ///// DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=2.0 FTBO DT PA=20 NMI
AL 06 201008221145 DVTS 1220N 3400W TAFB 3030 ///// DT = 3.0 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING WITH (T+0.5) WHITE B


Oooh, where did you find that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New BAMS heads southwest on the end of the run, and other models have shifted westward some. The shifts should continue tomorrow with some fluctuations in the next few days as TD6 should encounter some troughiness and head a bit more northward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2863. IKE
Fire away from the great Jacksonville,FL...home of....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone know what the TAFB is up too?


AL 06 201008221145 DVTS 1220N 3400W SAB 2020 ///// DT=2.0 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=2.0 FTBO DT PA=20 NMI
AL 06 201008221145 DVTS 1220N 3400W TAFB 3030 ///// DT = 3.0 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING WITH (T+0.5) WHITE B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:


ok then, I guess not.


Well give it a shot im no Met but i can guess with the best of um.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2860. aquak9
ok, napoleon, thank you. First, looking at rb, is that a huge yet somewhat diffuse ULL offa the southeast coast of Florida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2010AUG22 123000 2.8 1002.0/ 0.0 / 41.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.84 -15.92 SHEAR N/A 12.28 33.84 FCST

22/1145 UTC 12.2N 34.0W T2.0/2.0 06L

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0

And fire away, Aqua.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide, handsome men and women worth winking at.

I have a coupla questions. Yep, they're weather related. If I post them will anyone try to answer them for me?


Sure. Fire away...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
TD#6 has once again commenced a westward movement in my opinion.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
EP, 09, 2010082212, , BEST, 0, 139N, 950W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 225, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2854. aquak9
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide, handsome men and women worth winking at.

I have a coupla questions. Yep, they're weather related. If I post them will anyone try to answer them for me?


ok then, I guess not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2851. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide, handsome men and women worth winking at.

I have a coupla questions. Yep, they're weather related. If I post them will anyone try to answer them for me?


LOL...no one answered you. I'll try...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Vero1:
Here comes "Little Brother".



Maybe not quite so little, though (and it's hard to see just how Danielle will possibly recurve as much and as quickly as forecast):

Click for larger image:
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
Quoting P451:
Nice burst of convection over the center now. If this persists we'll have Danielle in no time.


Honestly I think we have Danielle... the NHC will prolly agree soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone know what the TAFB is up too?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Frank in the East Pacific
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
21Aug - 12pmGMT - 10.6n31.0w - - 25knots . . . . 1009mb
Invest95L becomes TropicalDepressionSix
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8n31.8w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
21Aug - 09pmGMT - 11.0n32.1w - - 30mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.1
22Aug - 12amGMT - 11.2n32.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.8n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF

Copy&paste 11.2n32.3w-11.3n32.6w, 11.3n32.6w-11.8n33.0w, 11.8n33.0w-12.1n33.4w, 12.1n33.4w-12.2n33.9w, hex, bda, sid, tuv into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours

TD6's heading has turned westward from 7.7degrees west of Northwest to 11degrees west of WestNorthWest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ho77yw00d:


yes we know you have a fish fetish!!!

rotmfflmfao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storms by next week.


yes we know you have a fish fetish!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hhunter:
Hypervigilance sounds like global warming testas...


Yeah, maybe. Contrarians, on the other hand, are in deep, pathological denial. As Freud said: "denial is a state in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence." And they employ all three prongs of Freud's denial approach:

#1: simple denial - deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether.
#2: minimisation - admit the fact but deny its seriousness (a combination of denial and rationalisation).
#3: projection - admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility.

Definitely sounds like every Contrarian I've ever known... :-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storms by next week.

If I was a fish I would be offended!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2836. aquak9
g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide, handsome men and women worth winking at.

I have a coupla questions. Yep, they're weather related. If I post them will anyone try to answer them for me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2886 - 2836

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron