95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.
Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.
Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It Think TD6 by tonight it's had the spin for a couple days based on near passes by SCAT's and it's been developing convection all day.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km/zooms/WMBds112.png
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
19Aug - 12pmGMT - 11.0N23.6W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
19Aug - 06pmGMT - 11.0N24.1W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 12amGMT - 11.0N24.7W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 06amGMT - 11.0N25.3W - - 25mph - - - 1008mb
20Aug - 12pmGMT - 11.0N26.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.4N29.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.0N27.0Wthen11.1N26.6W*
21Aug - 00amGMT - 10.4N29.6W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.1N27.1W*
21Aug - 06amGMT - 10.5N30.3W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.2N27.6W*
21Aug - 12pmGMT - 10.6N31.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8N31.8W - - 30mph - - - 1008mb
*before NHC reevaluated&altered 95L's path
Copy&paste 10.4N29.0W-10.4N29.6W, 10.4N29.6W-10.5N30.3W, 10.5N30.3W-10.6N31.0W, 10.6N31.0W-10.8N31.8W, hex, bda, sid, tuv into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24hours
Doesn't the RE mean that it curved once already and that it's doing it again ? I get confused by the term Re curve.
Example: The storm is expected to re-curve out to sea.
Example : The storm is expexted to curve out to sea.
Moving north of west...imagine that.
Waste of a blog space!
Great, now it will be steamier outside...
thanks
LOL! Sorry, let me fix it.
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100821 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100821 1800 100822 0600 100822 1800 100823 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 31.8W 11.1N 32.5W 12.0N 33.3W 13.7N 35.0W
BAMD 10.8N 31.8W 10.9N 33.5W 10.9N 35.1W 11.0N 36.8W
BAMM 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 32.8W 12.0N 34.0W 13.1N 35.8W
LBAR 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 33.8W 12.0N 36.7W 12.5N 39.9W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 59KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 59KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100823 1800 100824 1800 100825 1800 100826 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 38.2W 20.2N 46.6W 21.7N 53.8W 21.1N 56.6W
BAMD 11.6N 38.5W 14.3N 42.4W 19.5N 46.3W 25.7N 47.7W
BAMM 15.0N 38.5W 19.4N 45.7W 22.4N 52.0W 23.1N 55.0W
LBAR 13.2N 43.6W 14.2N 50.2W 15.8N 53.7W 25.2N 54.4W
SHIP 70KTS 86KTS 87KTS 88KTS
DSHP 70KTS 86KTS 87KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 281DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
AMO figures
1982: -0.050 -0.048 -0.049 -0.147 -0.165 -0.152 -0.195 -0.273 -0.270 -0.327 -0.382 -0.350
2010: 0.085 0.218 0.331 0.474 0.503 0.494 0.500
(Though, 1982 was a huge El Nino and 2010 is about to be a fairly potent La Nina does skew the comparison a bit if it's direct).
Link
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING NEAR 12 NORTH, 31 WEST.
Visible cloud shots are starting to show that the model idea of a tropical cyclone evolving southwest of the Cape Verde islands is correct. The GFS is still insisting on this breaking the atlantic ridge and recurving.
In the meantime, the development of the summer noreaster for Sunday night into Tuesday looks on target.
Whats left of TD 5 is south of Atlanta Ga, and drifting slowly east, though its not as well defined as yesterday. Heavy thunderstorms are developing over Florida Bay well south of where the small bump in the cloud shot over GA is
thanks for reading, ciao for now ****
SATURDAY 10:30 AM
GLOBALLY, SOME INTERESTING THINGS STARTING TO HAPPEN.
Moscow has had their hottest summer on record but much cooler has finally ended their summer and in fact the next 10 days look quite cool there. The invasion of cool into the US and then the subsequent building of the ridge over the lakes and northeast, should raise pressures sufficiently in the means over the atlantic north of 35 north to finally start the still dormant hurricane season. While the system in the southeast atlantic is the storm du jur of most modeling the overall pattern is one that says that within the next 10 days, a threat to the US coastline, most likely in the gulf, is the best bet. This accentuated on the Canadian ensembles, and on the European operational, as forecasted pressures lower in the gulf while rising over much of the eastern US in the wake of the strong trough that is moving through.
Globally, this is probably the quietest 3 Jun-Aug period on record. Though we now have all three basins with some form of tropical activity it is still not even something that can add to the ace index in a way that can sway this.
This has been an amazing summer. The SOI is challenging the back to back July-Aug records for strongest 2 month positive, as we see 1950,1955,1975 in the mix. This is a fascinating situation. It appears that when their is a Cold PDO and warm AMO, The September temp will follow the August example for the nation. We have the 1950 and 1955 examples to look at. Aug 1950 was cold across the US, the way the CFS was forecasting ( it is still amazingly out of touch in the central plains, where its "nowcast" still has August below normal!) back in late July and as Sept forecasted now. In any case Sept 1950 was a cold Sept. In 1955 Aug was warm and Sept was warm. So another interesting test of my ideas is coming up. The other one? That this hurricane season comes to life with a feeding frenzy for the atlantic basin.
Looks like the end of the summer season into Sep is going to boil away.. as a major heat wave develops later next week and probably down the road into the labor day weekend. The deepening trough on the east coast is right in line early next week with the means for octant 4 of the MJO, and so far it has refused to come out to where I though it would be in the heart of the season ( of course that is only 6 days old, but that is six days of being wrong). In any case once that trough lifts, it leaves a piece behind in the gulf and there is where problems may start. As far as the atlantic wave, well the front running near 45 needs to be watched as it gets west of 60... but the back one is still forecast on most modeling to recurve into the north atlantic. I say most, cause there are plenty of the various ensemble runs that buy hook or crook have a storm in the southwest atlantic of gulf in 6-10 days ( canadian individual runs are really interesting) But transitory patterns are always the toughest.
Speaking of tough, a months worth of rain is coming for parts of the northeast Sunday and Monday. This looks like some places could pick up over 5 inches of rain as the summer noreaster gets cranking Monday and Tuesday. Abnormally warm water and a last minute deepening and entrainment of tropical moisture makes this a real problem Areas north of I 80 in the northeast and then much of New england look to be under the gun for an excessive rain event with this...
Heavy rains? Its not like we havent seen it this summer.
Thanks for reading, ciao for now ****
by joe b
I think that's the warmest AMO figure on record.
good okay.
I think this is at least as accurate viable as taken the 3 or 4 conditions they have in common and then saying this season will be just like another..
Some sane climatologist needs to look at what they don't have in common. Especially this years killers, Dust and the semi persistent TUTT near PR. We saw so many waves have their convection
smothered or shear off this year I have breathed nothing but sighs of relief for months..
Then there is the instability factor...what were AIR temperatures? The Lows over the US, atlantic and even Europe as the tail of a low in europe might affect waves coming off Africa... there is a lot more to consider then nina's and SST's
It simple, timing
We need to realize that in 2005, a bulk of the waves had that tenacity to take advantage of the small windows they had to develop.
If you look at this year though, timing is the only reason we do not have say 6 or 7 storms as we all know that several of our invests came very close to getting classified
Not quite.
1998 reached 0.555. The strongest actual figure is way, way back (though whether the retrospective figures are as valid, I don't know).
You mean last year, right?
Incorrect.
2001 at this point had 3-0-0
1998 at this point also had 3-0-0
We're at 3-1-0, probably will be 4-2-1 or maybe 5-2-1 at the end of the month.
If it develops, it shouldn't have enough time to become more than a moderate tropical storm. The farther east it goes, the higher the intensity.
Link
*A TD is not official*
XX/INV/95L
MARK
11.46N/31.75W
Noticed this myself about an hour ago. Low clouds wrapping into the center, rather than away from it. A good sign.
Hmmmm...
WHXX01 KWBC 211825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100821 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100821 1800 100822 0600 100822 1800 100823 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 31.8W 11.1N 32.5W 12.0N 33.3W 13.7N 35.0W
BAMD 10.8N 31.8W 10.9N 33.5W 10.9N 35.1W 11.0N 36.8W
BAMM 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 32.8W 12.0N 34.0W 13.1N 35.8W
LBAR 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 33.8W 12.0N 36.7W 12.5N 39.9W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 59KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 59KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100823 1800 100824 1800 100825 1800 100826 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 38.2W 20.2N 46.6W 21.7N 53.8W 21.1N 56.6W
BAMD 11.6N 38.5W 14.3N 42.4W 19.5N 46.3W 25.7N 47.7W
BAMM 15.0N 38.5W 19.4N 45.7W 22.4N 52.0W 23.1N 55.0W
LBAR 13.2N 43.6W 14.2N 50.2W 15.8N 53.7W 25.2N 54.4W
SHIP 70KTS 86KTS 87KTS 88KTS
DSHP 70KTS 86KTS 87KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 281DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Viewing: 601 - 651
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