95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2936. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:
smuldy- no sarcasm intended! not at all. I am a bonehead, get frustrated w/myself sometimes. My memory card is full and my rolodex is falling apart at this age. :)
lol i meant on my part, and at my stage of alertness ATM it becomes an art deciphering what i say vs what i mean, much like tropical forecasting lol; night all
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well nrtiwlnvragn the windsat shows me that TD 6 COC is elongated NE-SW but a more concentrated COC on the SW side more in the convection
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
it shouldn't have too many, Td 6 is forecast to increase it's forward speed, The GFS does predict that the wave behind TD 6 will become TD 7.


Yep, but overall intensity should be much weaker, according to the GFS than monster Danielle, which comes dangeoursly close to the Eastern Seaboard. The furthest west model run of the GFS on this storm in quite some time.
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Satellite estimates of 2.0 and 3.0 should yield an intensity of 35kt on the next advisory, but we'll see.
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2932. Relix
Actually it's .2N of the forecast points.
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2931. smuldy
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Good point about the frances comparison gets old.It seems Jeff certain people on this blog only go by climatological history when it shows a past storm affecting thier area like they are trying to do this one.Now with that said ,I posted a rather detailed historical look at the opposite of this frances idea.And guess what? nobody replied. However, with the frances comparison its replys questions and comments lol.Bob if you are still lurking Maybe you will chime in on this,Since the upswing in 1995 30 t/c have formed before 40 west> Outof those 30 only 6 have affected the us conus.1) georges 2)isabell 3)frances 4) ivan 5) ike.6) Bertha. So if you are going to post climatological history post it all. Als go back and look at what longitude katrina, rita,dennis, gustav,humberto,opal,erin, danny.earl,floyd dennis 1999, fran,Bonnie,brett,cindy,lili,claudette,charley,jeanne.Yes theymay came from cv tw but did not form till much further west.And for fun go back and see where elena and camille first formed.
last post for tonight/day; agreed, and i said it earlier tonight, but 98 times of 100 this storm will recurve safely, even east of bermuda; it is the 2 times out of 100 that we need people to not shut down on though, the august trough and the gfs run where a storm just ignores high level ridging and barrels northward is noteworthy THIS FAR OUT, if model consensus holds it is a different story, and again if i get a 98:2 bet it is the equiv of playing 2-7split vs pocket rockets, its a good bet rockets win, as its a good bet this goes out to sea, just this stage dont stop looking just because one outcome is likely, especially should you live in bermuda, the northeastern US, or nova scotia, where the odds go more 10s vs a-q of a miss
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Quoting mrpuertorico:
I wonder what eefects the wave benind td6 will have on td6
it shouldn't have too many, Td 6 is forecast to increase it's forward speed, The GFS does predict that the wave behind TD 6 will become TD 7.
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Quoting calder:


Some north easterly shear affecting TD6 just slightly, it also may be giving the appearance of westward motion or deviation from forecast track. I actually do think we are a tad SW of forecast but possibly being deceived into thinking that it's more W than it actually is. JMO

Yes, it is wobbling a little west and even south in a few frames, but that's very common with tropical systems, you have to look to see if those wobbles become a trend.
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2928. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
159
TCNA21 RJTD 221200
CCAA 22120 47644 NAMELESS 07159 11130 14334 215// 92611=

1200 PM UTC August 22

Tropical Depression 07
15.9N 113.0E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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2926. SeaMule
If you look at the tropical floater RGB, you can see the LLC spinning, devoid of HDO. In my completely amateurish opinion, I would opt that there is a small amount of shear, and the system will remain more west than anything else. wwnw, I think. it's moving very slow too...which is interesting. perhaps it's about to spin more north. who knows. but if it delays in getting it's act together, it will be more west of the forecast track. Enough west....well, I keep thinking of Andrew. ......ruh roh
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2925. shawn26
Does anyone have a link to the dynamic models?
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2924. aquak9
smuldy- no sarcasm intended! not at all. I am a bonehead, get frustrated w/myself sometimes. My memory card is full and my rolodex is falling apart at this age. :)
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Good point about the frances comparison gets old.It seems Jeff certain people on this blog only go by climatological history when it shows a past storm affecting thier area like they are trying to do this one.Now with that said ,I posted a rather detailed historical look at the opposite of this frances idea.And guess what? nobody replied. However, with the frances comparison its replys questions and comments lol.Bob if you are still lurking Maybe you will chime in on this,Since the upswing in 1995 30 t/c have formed before 40 west> Outof those 30 only 6 have affected the us conus.1) georges 2)isabell 3)frances 4) ivan 5) ike.6) Bertha. So if you are going to post climatological history post it all. Als go back and look at what longitude katrina, rita,dennis, gustav,humberto,opal,erin, danny.earl,floyd dennis 1999, fran,Bonnie,brett,cindy,lili,claudette,charley,jeanne.Yes theymay came from cv tw but did not form till much further west.And for fun go back and see where elena and camille first formed.
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2922. Becca36
Quoting weatherguy03:
TD #6 Update Aug. 22nd. 2010...Latest Track Implications.

Very nice. Thank you.
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2921. aquak9
neapolitain- thanks for that, yeah I shoulda been lookin' at cloud tops not just size. Low level barbs helped too.

sealevel- nice pic. Real elongated, eh? looks like a kidney bean.
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I wonder what eefects the wave benind td6 will have on td6
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2919. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:
smuldy- yes it was upgraded to a TD, geeez I meant to say that. Yes it's TD6 now.

No wonder i'm confused- we have the marsupial phase, the invest phase, the TD phase, then the naming phase.
no no sorry, i meant the one behind it, sorry ya its td6, i was off on the numbers too didnt mean to be sarcstic about td6, just didnt know if the pg coming off africa had been granted invest status

edited for no v know and proof its time for me to sleep good night/day all
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Latest Windsat


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Quoting calder:


Some north easterly shear affecting TD6 just slightly, it also may be giving the appearance of westward motion or deviation from forecast track. I actually do think we are a tad SW of forecast but possibly being deceived into thinking that it's more W than it actually is. JMO


Your correct, 20 knot shear from the east is afflicting it, causing the exposed circulation but there is very favorable conditions ahead for strengthening and I do see this becoming a Hurricane by Wednesday.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting aquak9:
oh, neapolitan? I already answered my second question with the low, mid, high level barbs. Was curious about the burst of convection due NE of 96L. But it's just a MCC, right?

seems like a good day to string up some RHCP, for my friends.

Link


Sorry, almost missed this. Assuming you're talking about the blob three or four hundred miles NE of TD6, yes, it appears to be an MCC: large cold tops dying in the daylight...
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Looks like a potential Nor'Easter for the Mid Atlantic...



And is this a Tropical or Subtropical Cyclone impacting Maine???

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2913. aquak9
smuldy- yes it was upgraded to a TD, geeez I meant to say that. Yes it's TD6 now.

No wonder i'm confused- we have the marsupial phase, the invest phase, the TD phase, then the naming phase.
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2912. calder
Quoting calder:


Some north easterly shear affecting TD6 just slightly, it also may be giving the appearance of westward motion or deviation from forecast track. I actually do think we are a tad SW of forecast but possibly being deceived into thinking that it's more W than it actually is. JMO


check out the sw outflow though, very impressive
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2911. calder


Some north easterly shear affecting TD6 just slightly, it also may be giving the appearance of westward motion or deviation from forecast track. I actually do think we are a tad SW of forecast but possibly being deceived into thinking that it's more W than it actually is. JMO
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2910. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
21:00 PM JST August 22 2010
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In The South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 16.0N 112.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.1N 109.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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2909. smuldy
Quoting smuldy:
gfs developed, euro developed then more or less killed off after a duel stall on last run
edit:didnt mean to double post; meant to correct dual to duel but it wont let me delete now so sorry
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2908. TomSal
Aspectre #2845 Thank's for the link.
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2907. smuldy
Quoting markot:
looks like due west, and it went south of forcast point, what models saying about item behind td 6.
gfs developed, euro developed then more or less killed off after a dual stall on last run
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Good Morning! TD6 is going south of the model consensus, which is not anticipated. What could this mean down the road?
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2905. markot
looks like due west, and it went south of forcast point, what models saying about item behind td 6.
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2904. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:
oh, neapolitan? I already answered my second question with the low, mid, high level barbs. Was curious about the burst of convection due NE of 96L. But it's just a MCC, right?

seems like a good day to string up some RHCP, for my friends.

Link
sorry question back---96l has been classified? yes the burst of energy emerging from the west of africa was just a MMC from what people more in the know said last night, but has the wave behind it been upgraded from a pg? serious question missed an hourish of the board
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Satellite intensity measures are enough to upgrade 06L to Danielle in my opinion. SAB at 2.0 or 35 mph, but TAFB and ADT are at 3.0 and 2.6 respectively.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
2901. IKE
Quoting casadunlap:


And for Ike...and the likely future Danielle

Link


whiskey bottles...brand new cars...oak tree you're in my way....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2900. aquak9
oh, neapolitan? I already answered my second question with the low, mid, high level barbs. Was curious about the burst of convection due NE of 96L. But it's just a MCC, right?

seems like a good day to string up some RHCP, for my friends.

Link
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2899. smuldy
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I'm not seeing that. What I did see though is that the center is more exposed on the last frame than the second to last frame.
dry air to it's north could be causing a lack of convection on that side
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Verification for NHC 2nd forecast.

Forecast
AL 06 2010082200 03 OFCL 12 120N 339W 35 0 TS


Verification
AL 06 2010082212 01 CARQ 0 122N 339W 30 1007 TD

0.2 North of forecast
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2897. trey33
Quoting casadunlap:


And for Ike...and the likely future Danielle

Link


giggle :)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Appearance of south of west in vis loop

final couple of frames Link


I'm not seeing that. What I did see though is that the center is more exposed on the last frame than the second to last frame.
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2895. smuldy
Quoting hunkerdown:
at the very least, according to the U.S. Department of State, Bermuda may have stores that sell fish (dead or alive) but it is also home to @65,000 people and a temporary stay for many of visitors. Please keep this in mind when you spew your senseless, and tiresome, comments that have a better than not chance of being WRONG. Other than posting pictures please use a little knowledge, if possible, to enlighten everybody WHY this storm, and every other, will not affect any human lives (and I don't mean regurgitation of models that are currently inaccurate in position and path).
agreed, unless we call mexico a fish storm, cause st georges=1000x better than cancun, having been to both
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Quoting IKE:
Fire away from the great Jacksonville,FL...home of....Link


And for Ike...and the likely future Danielle

Link
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storm all the way
at the very least, according to the U.S. Department of State, Bermuda may have stores that sell fish (dead or alive) but it is also home to @65,000 people and a temporary stay for many of visitors. Please keep this in mind when you spew your senseless, and tiresome, comments that have a better than not chance of being WRONG. Other than posting pictures please use a little knowledge, if possible, to enlighten everybody WHY this storm, and every other, will not affect any human lives (and I don't mean regurgitation of models that are currently inaccurate in position and path).
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Quoting Cotillion:


I seem to vaguely recall they have mentioned CIMSS ADT in a tropical discussion before, so they do take it into account.


They probably do take it into account somewhat, I mean they have a whole group of images in their ADT format on their satellite page, but probably not nearly as much as TAFB and SAB.
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2890. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:
wow- thanks ya'll. Yesterday the mid-southern part of Fla looked anti-cyclonic to me. But today it looked like it was predicted to look.

So cool. See how easily amused I am.

Got another question, gotta figure out how to word it.
Quoting aquak9:
wow- thanks ya'll. Yesterday the mid-southern part of Fla looked anti-cyclonic to me. But today it looked like it was predicted to look.

So cool. See how easily amused I am.

Got another question, gotta figure out how to word it.
ask away, bedtime for me soon though, it's 11pm somewhere 2 hours east of beijing
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Quoting IKE:


I would have posted the NHC discussion. I haven't really looked at that ULL.


I know. Just another tool, I suppose...and I'm a more visual-type learner myself...
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22/1145 UTC 13.8N 94.9W T2.5/2.5 09E -- East Pacific
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2887. aquak9
Quoting IKE:


Sorry...you'll have to find a younger VJ.


just kidding ike- I'll take music from you anytime
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storms by next week.

Honestly Jason, I wish you go back to just posting your fantastic graphics and images. I have always defended you from adolescent bullying but this sort of the thing is getting old. The constant spouting of the same non-factual garbage has become tiresome.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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