95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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I really don't want to hear Frances almost every storm since in a similar position recurved Irene Florence Bill the list goes on.
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Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but man the model have shifted quite a bit.

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Quoting angiest:


I thought you declared it a fish.


Guaranteed FISH LOL
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Quoting katrinakat5:
no danieele



Exactly!
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2978. angiest
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
WARNING AT 11AM AND 2PM MODELS are shifting further west and south maybe a big shift to.


I thought you declared it a fish.
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Quoting aquak9:


here in Jacksonville, Florida, Shen. My dad's secretary was Billy Powell's mom. The head coach at Robert E lee high school was named Leonard Skinner. He allowed them to practice in the gym, and so they named the band after him.

Billy Powell was the piano player. His mom begged my dad to come see them play, and I went, too.


Thats a very cool story Aquak.
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2975. shawn26
Models seem to be way left of what they were a day or two ago. Is this a trend?
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2974. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:
I repeat....

DYNAMIC:


White line way to far to the right, I'd say.


Yep.

Now that there is a real system the models are changing things up.
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Good point about the frances comparison gets old.It seems Jeff certain people on this blog only go by climatological history when it shows a past storm affecting thier area like they are trying to do this one.Now with that said ,I posted a rather detailed historical look at the opposite of this frances idea.And guess what? nobody replied. However, with the frances comparison its replys questions and comments lol.Bob if you are still lurking Maybe you will chime in on this,Since the upswing in 1995 30 t/c have formed before 40 west> Outof those 30 only 6 have affected the us conus.1) georges 2)isabell 3)frances 4) ivan 5) ike.6) Bertha. So if you are going to post climatological history post it all. Als go back and look at what longitude katrina, rita,dennis, gustav,humberto,opal,erin, danny.earl,floyd dennis 1999, fran,Bonnie,brett,cindy,lili,claudette,charley,jeanne.Yes theymay came from cv tw but did not form till much further west.And for fun go back and see where elena and camille first formed.


I can think of other comparisons to TD 6 but I do agree the Frances track is overdone but now with the model divergence it is time to just watch this.
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Quoting TruthCommish:


Danielle? Did we all miss the advisory naming the system?

I think we can be pretty sure this will be Danielle I thinks it's fine to refer to it as such Thanks for the Models Destin I guess that still doesn't reveal the long range Fate of Danielle
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2965. angiest
Well I see one of stormtop's alter egos has returned.
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Should b danielle by 11am ,interesting possiblity of td5 remains reregenerating in the negom and tracking sw into the central tom area mid week! !!
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Quoting aquak9:


here in Jacksonville, Florida, Shen. My dad's secretary was Billy Powell's mom. The head coach at Robert E lee high school was named Leonard Skinner. He allowed them to practice in the gym, and so they named the band after him.

Billy Powell was the piano player. His mom begged my dad to come see them play, and I went, too.
OK just that every 3rd town or county south of the Mason/Dixon has an REL High had a brief How the H3ll did they wind up in Staunton, VA moment. :)
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2961. angiest
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
You might be panicking but you ought to stockpile that stuff anyhow.


Yeah someone living on the coast ought to have that kind of stuff already.
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Quoting katrinakat5:
the good news is the lesser antilles and east coast will feel very little impacts from danielle...


Danielle? Did we all miss the advisory naming the system?
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2959. eddye
tropic chat time
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Does someone have the statistical vs dynamic models on this because that usually sets a clear scenario for what is to happen
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Be back in an hour.
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Quoting TruthCommish:






I'm SOLD! It's off to Home Depot to stock up on plywood, water and batteries. I'm not panicking am I? Anyone want to help me board up the windows?
You might be panicking but you ought to stockpile that stuff anyhow.
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2954. aquak9
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Which RE Lee High School?


here in Jacksonville, Florida, Shen. My dad's secretary was Billy Powell's mom. The head coach at Robert E lee high school was named Leonard Skinner. He allowed them to practice in the gym, and so they named the band after him.

Billy Powell was the piano player. His mom begged my dad to come see them play, and I went, too.
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I think now that Vertical Instability is starting to return to normal over the Atlantic, we'll see at least a normal end to the 2nd half of hurricane season, if not slightly above normal.
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The models are shifting further west and south.
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Just because it's time:

The current 26°C isotherm depth chart, showing hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean with 26°C or warmer water down to between 250' (green) and 325' (yellow) below the surface, while in the Caribbean, 26°C water extends down to 500' or so.

Come and get it!

Source

The current Sea Surface Temperature (SST) map. Most of the non-land area in this image is capable of sustaining tropical cyclones.

Come and get it!

Source

The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the rapidly-growing red and pink areas in the Caribbean, within the Loop Current, and along the north coast of Cuba have a pretty remarkable TCHP of between 110 and 140 kJ/cm2 or higher.

Come and get it!

Source

Note 1: From Dr. Jeff Masters: "When using the TCHP map, TCHP is not really a good measurement in water that is shallow (less than 50 meters or so). Because TCHP is a function of volume and depth of warm water, TCHP will never appear to be high around coastlines/ocean shelves that are shallow. Remember Charley of 2004 strengthened significantly just offshore of SW FL. [That is,] in a region of low TCHP."

Note 2: most of the Gulf generally sees its maximum SSTs this month, while the northern half of the Caribbean tops out in September. The southern Caribbean and parts of the eastern Atlantic max out in October. (Link)
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Wow Dr Masters wasn't kidding about how the end of the heat wave would cause cyclones to form. I just didn't think the effects would be so pronounced or so fast
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Quoting P451:


Interesting... models are now taking it towards the East Coastal reigion. Still a few that say "fish storm" but they're not as plentiful as before. very interesting. Thanks for this map p451! ;)
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Quoting aquak9:
ok ya'll, I posted my 1st question. Ike, I was hoping that may be some LimpBiskit because after 40+ years I've kinda had enough lynryd skynryd.

But I did get to see them when I was 8 years old and they were still high school kids, playing at Robert. E Lee highschool auditoerium.
Which RE Lee High School?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well nrtiwlnvragn the windsat shows me that TD 6 COC is elongated NE-SW but a more concentrated COC on the SW side more in the convection


Is elongated, will have to wait and see if the low pressure center moves under the convection or if convection develops over the low pressure center.
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2944. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
AL062010
============

2010AUG22 131500
T2.9
Pressure 1001.0
Knots 43.0
T2.9
Adjusted T2.8
Raw T2.8
Scene Type: SHEAR

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2942. smuldy
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
And as Ike would say lol td 6 still could get arrested for public nudity still missing some clothes.
ok i swear im gone now and will never see replies after this since a new blog will be up by the time i am, but you realize given steering currents this/that is a bad thing right? if you dont live in bermuda or the middle atlantic that is, reguardless of ridging, yet err guard"ened" of depth of trough
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Quoting SeaMule:
Enough west....well, I keep thinking of Andrew. ......ruh roh




I'm SOLD! It's off to Home Depot to stock up on plywood, water and batteries. I'm not panicking am I? Anyone want to help me board up the windows?
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And as Ike would say lol td 6 still could get arrested for public nudity still missing some clothes.
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Latest ASCAT


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2936. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:
smuldy- no sarcasm intended! not at all. I am a bonehead, get frustrated w/myself sometimes. My memory card is full and my rolodex is falling apart at this age. :)
lol i meant on my part, and at my stage of alertness ATM it becomes an art deciphering what i say vs what i mean, much like tropical forecasting lol; night all
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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