95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MrstormX:
Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but man the model have shifted quite a bit.



Wow. More model bias to the left.
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3033. IKE
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Quoting IKE:
There can be no arguing where the COC of TD6 is, because it's exposed....


It also appears to be moving north in the last few frames.
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3028. Relix
Hey look! Another 2010 storm with the COC exposed! =P
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


A anti-cyclone is predicted to develop over the coming days and there is favorable conditions for intensification ahead, its just in a area of higher shear right now and its already starting to move out.
Yup. The GFS forecast that the upper level high currently centered to the NE of 06L (what is shearing it) to slowly move atop it tonight and then move in tandem with it. You can already see the anticyclone nearing 06L as of 13:15 UTC.

20-30 knots of easterly/northeasterly shear are currently affecting the system, which is likely to go down to 10-20 knots by tonight.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3026. A4Guy
3016...Even tho conditions are expected to improve...storm might not hold on until then. there looks to be a big decoupling of the convection and the COC.

I am going to be accused of being a deathcaster.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
td6 encountering ne shear, coc exposed



NICE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Fish storm or not i just think we put to much into long range models. Storm says they are good for 72 hrs.
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td6 encountering ne shear, coc exposed
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB gave it a T-number of 3.0 and SAB a T-number of 2.0 so they'll probably go in to middle at 11a.m and just call it Danielle (I assume). ASCAT also clearly shows tropical storm force winds.


The NHC may also be watching the state of organization. If the satellite presentation were to deteriorate further due to shear they may opt to hold off until the next advisory time.
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Interesting cyclonic turning apparent off tpa
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3018. IKE
COC near 12.5N and 33.9W.
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Quoting A4Guy:
Is it me...or is the COC almost completely exposed...and moving away from the deep convection??
I wonder if shear is going to cause more problems than forecast....


A anti-cyclone is predicted to develop over the coming days and there is favorable conditions for intensification ahead, its just in a area of higher shear right now and its already starting to move out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
3015. IKE
Quoting A4Guy:
Is it me...or is the COC almost completely exposed...and moving away from the deep convection??
I wonder if shear is going to cause more problems than forecast....


You're correct.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

A nice clean pass from Ascat showing a well defined center albeit just slightly elongated.

There are several 35 knot wind barbs evident so we'll see how the next update goes.

TAFB gave it a T-number of 3.0 and SAB a T-number of 2.0 so they'll probably go in to middle at 11a.m and just call it Danielle (I assume). ASCAT also clearly shows tropical storm force winds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

LMAO. Thank you Angiest for reminding him! All I know about storms is that we really know nothing about storms...they will go where they want to go. We can ASSUME potential tracks early on, but we must remember Andrew and others that DID NOT do what mets said they would. Let's all still keep our fingers crossed that this and all future storms this season entertain and fascinate us...but GO OUT TO SEA and harm none but the fishies.


Why do you want the fishies to get hurt? LOL
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Now with the apparent model shift (at least for now) you might as well just roll with the Frances posts. Try to have fun with it, rather than letting it anger you.

Works for me.

I mean I don't want to hear people say this storm will be like Francis it's silly to predict a track based on a single storm
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3010. IKE
There can be no arguing where the COC of TD6 is, because it's exposed....

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3009. Relix
If I am right the high should push future Danielle at 270 degrees for a few hours pretty soon. The models show this (some) but you can see the ridge. The pure 270 movement will depend on strength of both high and storm.
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No, i's not Danielle yet, at least not officially. But two points:

1) When speaking in the future tense, it's okay to use Danielle as a form of forecast. We could say "110-knot TD6" or "Cat 4 95L", but that'd get tedious.

2) Storm systems aren't owned by the NHC! That's true! TCs at this stage are in open waters, so we're free to call them whatever we want. Danielle? Great! TD6? Why not? Big Swirly Mass o' Clouds and Wind and Waves? Certainly!

;-)
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3006. A4Guy
Is it me...or is the COC almost completely exposed...and moving away from the deep convection??
I wonder if shear is going to cause more problems than forecast....
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3005. breald
ok let me ask this question again because I don't believe it was answered before.

The low pressure we have coming thru the Northeast at the moment and causing all our rain is what is going to push this storm out to sea?
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ok people don't go over the top now TD 6 is NOT a TS yet and it seems like it will be a little longer before we get it and I see a much more west ward track oh and to let people know TD6 is getting sheared 20-30kt to the west
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Quoting angiest:


I thought you declared it a fish.

LMAO. Thank you Angiest for reminding him! All I know about storms is that we really know nothing about storms...they will go where they want to go. We can ASSUME potential tracks early on, but we must remember Andrew and others that DID NOT do what mets said they would. Let's all still keep our fingers crossed that this and all future storms this season entertain and fascinate us...but GO OUT TO SEA and harm none but the fishies.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
GFS should respond at 12Z with a more left solution. Or not.

Almost time for some Water Park action for me and the boys. Taking the kids, too.


HA
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Quoting Relix:


Hey that's actually getting close to us there =P!. It's about 350 miles NE of us but they have been tracking down for a while now. Of course I do not believe it will affect us at all here in PR but you never know.


One never does know with a TC.
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Uh oh the computer models seemed to shift more west this morning.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
WARNING AT 11AM AND 2PM MODELS are shifting further west and south maybe a big shift to.
Do you mean no FISH!!!
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2993. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 05 INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC
00HR 16.1N 113.4E 998HPA 16M/S (30 kts)
P12HR WNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 17.3N 110.8E 985HPA 25M/S=
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2992. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:
GFS should respond at 12Z with a more left solution. Or not.

Almost time for some Water Park action for me and the boys. Taking the kids, too.


I'm not sure I want to know.
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Good morning all

A nice clean pass from Ascat showing a well defined center albeit just slightly elongated.

There are several 35 knot wind barbs evident so we'll see how the next update goes.

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2990. Relix
Quoting MrstormX:
Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but man the model have shifted quite a bit.



Hey that's actually getting close to us there =P!. It's about 350 miles NE of us but they have been tracking down for a while now. Of course I do not believe it will affect us at all here in PR but you never know.
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This is what i just posted:

Future Danielle appears poised to develop as forecasted. It also is forecasted currently, on the track as forecasted. Not sure if it will become the Major Hurricane as initially forecasted tho. TD6 as known currently is under 15-20kst of shear from the East blowing the tops off and nearly exposing the LLC. Shear appears to be forecasted to relax some. With that i do expect TD6 to become Tropical Storm Danielle at anytime within the next 12hrs. I do believe Danielle will become a Hurricane in the next 48hrs.
One thing i am starting to have a small problem with is the forecast track. Its seems models are for the most part in agreement of the Current forecast track as a Storm that will turn to the right as it recurves around the Bermuda High. Don' t let your guard down as i said in the previous update as if Danielle does not get stronger that a more Southerly route and more Westerly route would also come. We have lots of time to watch a developing Hurricane.
Just looking at the most recent model runs a bend back to the Left seems very possible as a high could build back in and force a Hurricane toward the ConUs near North Carolina possibly. Don't let your guard down.

Also, another storm appears to be developing behind TD6 and will probably also become a named Storm and will probably track further South. This one is a real Threat to the ConUs in my Opinion.
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Quoting IKE:


whiskey bottles...brand new cars...oak tree you're in my way....



Thanks those were good days havent heard that in awhile.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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