95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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3086. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 34.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

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3085. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:

Seen it? Ha! I'm pretty sure he made it. ;-)
I enjoy posting it. He does not need mine, it is probably framed with gold leaf in his living room...:)
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3084. angiest
Quoting surfmom:
shift to the left
shift to the right
and you do the hokey pokey and you turn yourself around
that's what it's all about

perhaps they were also speaking of weather, along w/life, when this song was created


Nice collision of a cheer and the hokey pokey.
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3083. bappit
TD 6 on CIMSS PREDICT morphed TPW. Seems to have moved northwest since last evening. The dry air to the northwest is also closer to the center.

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3082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
06L/TD/D/XX
MARK
12.23N/35.13W

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3081. IKE
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3080. surfmom
shift to the left
shift to the right
and you do the hokey pokey and you turn yourself around
that's what it's all about

perhaps they were also speaking of weather, along w/life, when this song was created
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3079. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
BAMS.


Thank you.
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3078. Vero1
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Pretty big shift in the models since last night




Yes that is called SMO -- Storm Model Oscillation
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Quoting angiest:


Which model is showing the loop?
BAMS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3075. angiest
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Pretty big shift in the models since last night




Which model is showing the loop?
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yes it will DestinDome


yes kmanislander we need to watch it closly
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Quoting FLdewey:

Seen it? Ha! I'm pretty sure he made it. ;-)
Where"s Homer? He wearing his red striped shirt today?
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31995
3070. surfmom
3058 -Kman, ever eagle eyes!!!! glad I'm not your kid - LOL - you don't even miss the dot on the letter i
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3069. angiest
Come on people. How many times do you have to be reminded that tropical cyclones can behave atypically:



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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Pretty big shift in the models since last night


Not surprising. That shift towards the left was going to come sooner or later.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Not to pick a fight, just looking for you to give your thoughts on td 6 and back them up; cuz I am seeing you bash many, but nothing too much more than that.
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Pretty big shift in the models since last night


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3063. Jaxen
The 8am GFDL, HWRF and NOGAPS runs are showing that bend to the west after 5 days, and being in Orlando that reminds me of a Frances path. That would be worse than '04 when you look at the SST east of Florida, which are higher than I've ever seen them in 15 years.

The only thing that eased me a bit was I compared Frances to TD 6/Danielle's coordinates as TDs, and 6/D is about 6 degrees east of where Frances was. But I still don't need any talk of ridging or a blocking high beating out these trofs.
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3060. angiest
Quoting Chavalito:

At least for us in PR we are safe, this thing won't be any threat to Caribbean. Another Fish...


Willing to bet your life on that?
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
WARNING AT 11AM AND 2PM MODELS are shifting further west and south maybe a big shift to.
source/link plz
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I just took a look at the next set of steering layers on the assumption that TD6 becomes a TS and the pressure falls ever so slightly.

When you compare 3 hrs prior to the current layers the trough over the Great Lakes has actually lifted to the North some. I don't know if this is temporary or not but if not this could make a big difference to the track downstream. Something to watch.

If you also look into the Caribbean you will see that the SW corner of the steering high has pushed deeper into the Caribbean and now does not turn until the Barahona peninsula in Haiti.

Current




3 Hours ago

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If TD6 stays weak will it keep moving more West?
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Quoting Relix:
One says West. Another due north. XD!

At least for us in PR we are safe, this thing won't be any threat to Caribbean. Another Fish...
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3054. surfmom
stillwaiting - if you're still about are the Tarpon running past Siesta Key now? Got a bump the other day -it was a bigBIG fish, not a meanfin one, just wasn't sure... does the 91 degree water keep them further off shore??
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3053. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:
See ya, fools!

Once Big Time Rush gets finished with their Big Time Concert, I am out of here!
Good morning Jeff........Here is the brand new graph, have you seen it yet?
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Ooops...sorry. Harm to none..not even the fishies! Although, I do have a gut feeling that Florida may not be out of danger this season. But I am NOT gonna compare this track to Frances! LOL


Yup, I'm not wishcasting, but I would not be surprised to see at least one storm this season shoot the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan. Once it does that we all know that someone is going to be in a hurt locker.
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3051. Relix
One says West. Another due north. XD!
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3050. SLU
TD #6 looks a little better organised this morning. However, its circulation is still a bit elongated on a NE/SW axis. It still has a little more work to do in order for it to become a tropical storm.

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So it's moving west this morning, huh? Well, this is going to get REAL interesting.
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Tens of thousands of people in southern Pakistan are fleeing a threatened flood-surge, three weeks after heavy monsoon rains first hit the country.

In one village in Sindh province, Shahdadkot, people are trying to salvage their belongings amid fears a protective barrier will be breached.

An estimated 4m people have now been displaced in the city of Sukkar alone.

Link



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The convection is being sheared to the west while the COC looks to be moving north when exposed.
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remember guys the weaker TD6 is the much more further west it will go
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Quoting kmanislander:


The NHC may also be watching the state of organization. If the satellite presentation were to deteriorate further due to shear they may opt to hold off until the next advisory time.
True, could go either way with this one.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
center very exposed its the year of shear
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Why do you want the fishies to get hurt? LOL

Ooops...sorry. Harm to none..not even the fishies! Although, I do have a gut feeling that Florida may not be out of danger this season. But I am NOT gonna compare this track to Frances! LOL
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Not the CMC's best performance on this one so far.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/storms/AL062010_model_perf.html
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3037. breald
Quoting katrinakat5:
breald there is strong high steering danielle to to the wnw now..and ull will start to erode the hight causing danielle to turn more nw and by the time danielle reaches the 45-50west it will start to get influenced by the weakness and danielle will turn into the weakness and head on out to sea ...the deepening 750mb trough on the east coast is just the icing on the cake...


Thanks!
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.