95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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3536. hydrus
Quoting will45:


all the old people are in the Carolinas
With the very oldest existing in Florida....Grothar for example is actually older than the coral Florida rests on....Oh...Hi Gro
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hmm from NW-WNW with its movements I expect this to move more west now
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Um why are we yelling out new blog?
Lol. *rolls eyes*.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NEW BLOG

Um why are we yelling out new blog?
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I have a general question for the Blog. Why does it take so long for the website to load and also getting into the blog itself? I'm on a T-1 line.....and even at that speed my computer just sits here at times doing nothing. Does it have to do with the number of entries that have to be loaded in before the site fully pulls in?
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3530. alfabob
ASCAT at 1130 UTC showed a lopsided circulation, with the highest speeds in the NW and SE corners. Whatever just came off of Africa may have a chance to interact with it; perhaps by accelerating it W, NW. If this happens, it will most likely need more time to organize its circulation again before strengthening. Unless it approaches it more from the north, then it looks like it may help out by forcing the circulation from the southern half to wrap around more tightly.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SYNOPSIS AUGUST 22, 2010 ISSUED 8:00 A.M.


Thank you for the update!!
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School starts tomorrow, doesn't it? The end of summer. Twas always a sad day in the Cosmic household. It will be interesting to see if the "kids" go to school or if they blog on here.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5641
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
3526. GatorWX
just so yall know, new blog!!
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.
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3524. RTLSNK
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Snake! Doing a little recon on the blog?


Always here reading and learning, more so in the last week after someone mentioned Georgia as a "possible" cane strike target. :)

Macon is 167 miles NW of Savannah so I don't think storm surge will be a problem.
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NEW BLOG
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3522. will45
Quoting pottery:

'cept me.


i got ya beat tho
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; )
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Last four GFS model cycles, red is the one just completed.




Thanks for that. Looks like the GFS didn't end up going further west like I thought. Still an interesting setup.
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3518. pottery
Quoting will45:


all the old people are in the Carolinas

'cept me.
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afternoon storm
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting MississippiWx:
The disturbance to the north and east is weakening, so TD6 should begin to reorganize itself now.
Exactly. Now that the disturbance is dying off it should begin WNW and the circulation advect westward. All it needs know is for the anticyclone over that disturbance to advect SE towards 06L...that should be accomplished in less than 24 hours.
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3515. Dakster
Hey Portlight/Presslord - was great being able to hook up with you in Charleston a couple of weeks ago...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The area of thunderstorm activity is from the tail-end of a front. Some models were developing it the other day, but not, it looks like it wont be a concern.

The wave west of the Antilles does look impressive, however, it probably wont develop in the short term.


Thank you Tropical...is it the high that is over us right now that will keep the GOM system from developing...or wind shear, TUTTS, ULLS? Keep in mind i have almost no idea what i just said! LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The image you posted is 30 minutes older than mine, however, most of the circulation remains exposed with about half/a little less than half under convection.


I know, still it hasnt moved half way under in 30 mins
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Quoting btwntx08:

he didnt hes having more time spending with his family more than here for time being...he'll return when he has time


IIRC last time he posted on here someone in his family was ill or something. Yeah, caring for your family and working really does kill off your free time.
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3510. pottery
HEY Gro!!
Please excuse me. I find it hard to keep up, these days.

(uh oh!)
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Quoting Grothar:


I agree, it is the most impressive wave to emerge yet and looks to be a little further South. It has held together well. I would not be surprised if this were to be one we shall be watching with interest in the next week. (Watch the comments coming on this one)
I think it will.Some of the models have been going back and forth on development.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Not Yet Miami still fully exposed



Link
The image you posted is 30 minutes older than mine, however, most of the circulation remains exposed with about half/a little less than half under convection.
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The disturbance to the north and east is weakening, so TD6 should begin to reorganize itself now.
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Quoting txjac:
Why does it seem the weather456 has abandoned us? Does he come at all anymore?

he didnt hes having more time spending with his family more than here for time being...he'll return when he has time
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3505. will45
Quoting Portlight:
We announced this Thursday on the Daily Downpour...but perhaps it bears repeating here: we are well positioned to respond to any needs which may arrive in Bermuda...

...an additional bonus to posting this: it puts pottery on notice that we are taking note of his snarky 'age' comments...


all the old people are in the Carolinas
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Not Yet Miami still fully exposed



Link


Note that image is at 16:15 when Miami said 16:45.
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3503. pottery
Quoting Portlight:
We announced this Thursday on the Daily Downpour...but perhaps it bears repeating here: we are well positioned to respond to any needs which may arrive in Bermuda...

...an additional bonus to posting this: it puts pottery on notice that we are taking note of his snarky 'age' comments...


AACCKKK!!
You NEVER know who is lurkin/skulking/loitering around here.
A man keeps getting into trouble....
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3502. Grothar
Quoting pottery:
Hey Snake.
If it wasn't for Grothar, I wudda missed you.

How you do?


Nice. And I don't even get a Hey!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
16:45 UTC, the circulation is halfway under the convection.



Not Yet Miami still fully exposed



LLC seems to be weakening
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3499. txjac
Why does it seem the weather456 has abandoned us? Does he come at all anymore?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
16:45 UTC, the circulation is halfway under the convection.

Nice banding on the south side.The center should be fully under the convection this evening.
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3497. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
The wave off of africa has held steady so far.People should be more worried about that one than T.D 6.I don't care what the models say,I think it will develope due to favorable upper level conditions,and warm sst(Duh!).


I agree, it is the most impressive wave to emerge yet and looks to be a little further South. It has held together well. I would not be surprised if this were to be one we shall be watching with interest in the next week. (Watch the comments coming on this one)
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3496. pottery
Hey Snake.
If it wasn't for Grothar, I wudda missed you.

How you do?
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The long-range forecast of TD 6 remains very uncertain.
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We announced this Thursday on the Daily Downpour...but perhaps it bears repeating here: we are well positioned to respond to any needs which may arise in Bermuda...

...an additional bonus to posting this: it puts pottery on notice that we are taking note of his snarky 'age' comments...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6
Nope this will become danielle.just wait.It's going through some issues right now.
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16:45 UTC, the circulation is halfway under the convection.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
For some reason that site (PREDICT) over-detects SAL and makes it look like there is more than what there really is. If you look at it on the tropic2 page you'll notice that there is much less SAL than what the image you posted shows.



Yeah, I've noticed. Just posted that to mainly show how much shear was over the system.
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3490. Grothar
Quoting RTLSNK:


At "our" age we are not called stalkers, just harmless with walkers! :)


Yo, Snake! Doing a little recon on the blog?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah there is some brown coloring up there in the NW corner, however all the blues shooting up into the that NW corner will probably take care of most of it.

SHIPS believes the RH will stay fairly high, although steadily decreasing throughout the run:

700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 77 76 71 72 67 61 62 62 63 60

I agree though that this will have to overcome a few obstacles though, as it is trying to overcome one right now.
Oh yeah, the mid-level environment is plenty moist for development. If it dips below 50 though is when intensification will likely slow down.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6

unlikely it will stay a td this is tempoary
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting Tazmanian:
will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6


Its still going to become Danielle. It may have problems right now, but it will overcome them.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6


Be patient, this thing just became TD6 20 hours ago.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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