95L organizing off coast of Africa; Pakistan's Indus River flood crest nears coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on August 20, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands was designated Invest 95L by NHC this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build. The wave is in a moist environment over SSTs that are at near record warmth (28°C). The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. As 95L moves away from Africa, wind shear will decrease, and system will probably develop into a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving 95L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The long term steering current forecast from the GFS model indicates an above-average chance of recurvature of storms approaching the U.S. East Coast through the end of August, followed by a near-average chance of recurvature for the first week of September.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms, and the wave does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression before moving ashore tonight or Saturday.

The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a another tropical depression of the coast of Africa seven days from now. The GFS model predicts a possible subtropical depression may form off the coast of Virginia 5 - 6 days from now and move northeast towards New England.

Pakistan's monsoon rains ease; Indus river flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen today close to the all-time record for the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) Flood heights at nearly every monitoring station along the Indus have set all-time records this month (records go back to 1947.) Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a quiet phase. Little rain is expected over Pakistan over the next 3 - 4 days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. Flood heights along Pakistan's Indus River during August, 2010. Heavy rains during late July and early August brought record flood height to the upper and middle stretches of the river earlier this month; a wave of flooding progressed downstream, and has now arrived at the monitoring station closest to the coast, Kotri. Image credit: Pakistan Meteorological Department.

The writer of our Climate Change blog, Dr. Ricky Rood, has a sister working in Pakistan, and he is very conversant with the situation there. In his post this week, Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Cast Study, Ricky writes, "We have, here, harsh, brutish reality - a fragile, geopolitically important country where lives, crops, and infrastructure have been washed away. A public health nightmare will follow. We have here a case study of a climate disaster. " In the words of Molly Kinder, a senior policy analyst at the Center for Global Development, who is leading the center's work on a U.S. development strategy for Pakistan, providing aid to Pakistan it is a moral imperative, a humanitarian imperative, and a security imperative.


Figure 3. Image of the Pakistan flood catastrophe of 2010, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Here are some places that Ricky's sister, Elizabeth, has recommended for donations to help out in the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1227 - 1177

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

ill laugh my tookus off when neither one of these systems amount to anything. not to be a downcaster but until we get a system there is nothing to really forecast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z UKMET 120 hours below. The UKMET definitely develops 95L. It also tries to develop another tropical wave to the SE of 95L. It as well develops a trough split in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Quite surprising to see so much activity on a model that is normally dead, goes to show that activity is on the rise.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
1224. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC NEAR
11N27W THAT REMAINS THE FOCAL POINT OF A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH
S OF 14N BETWEEN 18W-36W. WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY
UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
MINIMAL WIND SHEAR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM
06N-14N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1223. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TWO said the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with 95L. This is a sign that 95L is beginning to detach itself from the ITCZ. The diurnal minimum is also helping to diminish convection.
What do you think about that ball of convection moving with 95L?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6917
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TWO said the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with 95L. This is a sign that 95L is beginning to detach itself from the ITCZ. The diurnal minimum is also helping to diminish convection.


I myself see a 48 hour difference between when the Models develop 95L to when it actually will develop

Most of the models have had this become a TD as early as tomorrow, to me it will not happen until Monday.

That 48 hour difference can have huge implications in terms of track down the road.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8074
1219. XStormX
Quoting XStormX:

no change, i do believe it's development is a lot slower than i thought
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think here in Cayman was the Twave and we also had some this afternoon so not sure about where that came from but something flaring up south of here tonight.
I've been assuming Twave here also, though what I saw last night seemed to be off an easterly flow... We had some torrential downpours around 2 p.m. but the only thing on the scope was some disturbed wx off the coast of GA / SC...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23089
The TWO said the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with 95L. This is a sign that 95L is beginning to detach itself from the ITCZ. The diurnal minimum is also helping to diminish convection.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
1216. DDR
Wunderkid
Have you been enjoying the rain as well?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1215. XStormX
Quoting Tazmanian:
\


yes

Action: Quote | Ignore User

thanks, lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
\
Quoting XStormX:

Is there a way we can ignore him ?



yes

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As has been said, 95L is not going to develop as quickly as the models say it will

The models at this time are off, on intensity as well as track and until this actually forms; the models should only be used as a guide.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8074

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1209. DDR
Quoting DDR:

Good to know,
i live on a hill now.
Ivan brought some serious floods to north Trinidad,flooded out the main highway.
Wish i used to measure rainfall back then
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1208. XStormX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting palmasdelrio:
I really miss the intelligent and informative comments of StormW, Levi, Jason, Hurricane101, and others. I hope they return to the blog soon. The petty fighting is really not necessary.


You have to come back during the day to catch those guys. Too many parents allow their ignorant, rude, and illiterate kids to use the computer without supervision in the evening and overnight here. Kind of surprising, actually; you think those kids would stay busy playing with their dolls and finger-paints, but I guess not. Anyway, some advice: just use your ignore button aggressively, however, and you'll be happier. Much happier...

P.S. -- I wish some of the illiterati here would learn to post properly so they wouldn't keep screwing up the layout here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You might want to reassess the meaning of 'quiet'. A vigorous tropical wave that has great potential of turning into a tropical cyclone doesn't make it sound like its quiet. If there was absolutely nothing in the tropics then I would agree with you.

By the way, who cares if it hits the U.S or not? I mean this is a weather blog for people who want to talk about weather regardless of where it is and where it goes.
If we were blogging for hits, there are lots of pple out there who live in the Canadian Maritimes, Bermuda, the Antilles, the Bahamas / TC, along the E coast of Central America, the whole Mexican coast who should just not follow a storm if it seems likely to hit the US. We have some great bloggers on here, but now and then someone pops up with a totally self-centred viewpoint. Sad to see, especially in an adult....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23089
1204. DDR
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We do not have mountains, rivers etc here although we do have some swamps but flooding is not a real big issue here. Thank God. We did have flooding with Ivan though on the East side of the island due to the sea coming almost over the entire island.

Good to know,
i live on a hill now.
Ivan brought some serious floods to north Trinidad,flooded out the main highway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
148

ABNT20 KNHC 202347

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

GULF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS

ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING IN

ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED

APPROXIMATELY 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT

MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
very funny jason2010xxxx that was from 12Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I made this.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


The ignore function is vastly superior to feeding them Taz.



but if you have them on ignore you cant report them lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Maybe because it should be slow? There is absolutely nothing going on in the tropics, this year just isn't going to be the wildly active hurricane season it was painted to be. Even if something does form in the atlantic, its so far it out there, there's no concern for at least a week, even then, its likely to not be a threat to the U.S.

I don't know how people could possibly talk so much about the tropics as it is when there is nothing going on. At least talk about some other weather that's actually exciting!

Man I'm obsessed with weather, but how boring is it to talk endlessly about the quiet tropics? lol


And yet, here you are. Hmmm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayne0224:
The models are and have been developing every wave in the last 2 weeks the sal and lack of lift r reasons to sit back and just let mother nature deside our fate when it pops well hang on but this may b a bad year for popcorn time will tell
Not so. Actually, the models have completely or almost completely ignored a whole bunch of waves in the last two weeks, including the one in the CAR / GOM with a yellow circle on it per NHC. What models HAVE been developing is the same pair of waves that have given rise to the current invest.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23089
Quoting Tazmanian:




will you stop spaming dr m blog with that plzs re ported


The ignore function is vastly superior to feeding them Taz.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1190. xcool
HMMM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting XStormX:
yeah, i'm up in the air with this one, it all depends on that high pressure and trofs, timing is everything
Very much so in this case.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
1187. XStormX
Quoting Tazmanian:



not too sure where it will go at this time
yeah, i'm up in the air with this one, it all depends on that high pressure and trofs, timing is everything
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the past few days in the afternoon the storms have been developing and then get pushed to the everglades. Gulf breezes then turn them around and around rush hour we get nailed with heavy rain and lightning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow.... I didn't realize Ike was single-handedly causing the record-low incidence of TCs worldwide!!!!! Live and learn, I guess. But I gotta say, hey, Ike! U da man!!! lol

On the EPac TD... anybody who's been watching the EPac even a little bit this season realizes that any Wward bound TC on that side isn't going to last long, especially if it's on a NW track. Water over there is cooler than average [go figure - can't have anything to do with the BIG La Nina over there, innit?] so no matter how well things initialize, they also fizzle pretty quick.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 23089
I really miss the intelligent and informative comments of StormW, Levi, Jason, Hurricane101, and others. I hope they return to the blog soon. The petty fighting is really not necessary.
Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
Quoting BahaHurican:
From post 1001 to post 1144, I have 62 posts either minused or removed. Anybody discussing personalities rather than weather or wx-related topics got a [-].

I now have more grey than white showing on this page. 11 greyed-out messages in a row. That is a really high incidence of noise, especially when we are looking at the cyclogenesis of what is postentially the first big CV storm of the season.

Let's get with it folks. LOTS of great wx stuff out there to be observed, commented on, and discussed.

ON an unrelated note, anybody in FL, Greater Antilles, Caymans, Yucatan had heavy overnight showers? If so, was it the ULL [TUTT] or the Twave that caused it?
I think here in Cayman was the Twave and we also had some this afternoon so not sure about where that came from but something flaring up south of here tonight.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8452
Quoting CaneFears:
I'll be back on tonight, all! I'm off to the bookstore to purchase all of my textbooks, since classes begin here next Monday. Have a good night, all, God bless. Hey fork-lifter, how much do you make, minimum wage or less, LOL, hahahaha, :0. peace out, folks. Be back tonight.



if your not banned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If that is not a depression based on satellite imagery then I do not know what else to call it. Everyone, this is a system you need to keep your eyes on. The fact that it is developing as Close to the coast as it is, could blow a few of the models that call for it to move north out of the water.

Remember stronger storms, tend to create their own environment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1178. XStormX
Quoting scott39:
95L- TD Monday morning!

well, maybe by monday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting XStormX:

Tazmanian, what's your take on invest 95, do you think it will recurve, or will it somehow go further west?



not too sure where it will go at this time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1227 - 1177

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto