The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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2427. hcubed
8:43 AM GMT on August 22, 2010
Had to add here, about the 61 day heatwave in Moscow.

"...The world record for the longest sequence of days above 100°Fahrenheit (or 37.8° on the Celsius scale) is held by Marble Bar in the inland Pilbara district of Western Australia. The temperature, measured under standard exposure conditions, reached or exceeded the century mark every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, a total of 160 days..."

CO2 was lower, then.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
2426. sailingallover
3:51 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Here is the 72 hour forecast which it has been said is "trustable".
The Ridge is retreating back east and entire east coast is one big area of trof which already exists in the central CONUS. So why the lack of trust in the models?
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
2425. 2010hurricaneseason
3:45 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Yea its Getting more Breezy here in Livingston... i Think the Lorrys on the Forth Road bridge mite not be alloud on the Bridge and its been a While since that last happend


The centre of the low pressure area keeps moving east towards scotland when it is forecasted to move north...maybe mainland scotland is going to get some very strong winds.
Member Since: June 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
2424. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid:


I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.

Now where I put sword? Too much clutter. Got to simplify life. Clean up mess.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
2422. Vero1
3:41 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
NEW BLOG 5 min ago
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
2421. tropicfreak
3:41 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
NEW BLOG.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
2420. mcluvincane
3:41 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Is it me or does this sailingallover Guy have a tude with storms opinion..calm down chicken
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
2419. kshipre1
3:41 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Thanks Storm for the map and nice explanation. So, if we are in and headed more for a negative NAO which would favor a more westward movement and higher threat for landfalls, then why are these storms forecasted to re curve?

Is it because of where the storm is located and looking at the map it will follow those areas meaning re curving?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
2416. Michaelkaii10
3:39 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting calder:


south uist got 34mph sustained. Pretty breezy here near glasgow


Yea its Getting more Breezy here in Livingston... i Think the Lorrys on the Forth Road bridge mite not be alloud on the Bridge and its been a While since that last happend
2415. canehater1
3:38 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting StormW:


That's what we have to wait and see.

Thanks, Storm I appreciate your daily expertise .....
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2414. dsenecal2009
3:37 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Member Since: September 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
2413. JRnOldsmar
3:37 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
G'Morn StormW, I don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but isn't that ex-td05 exactly where you said (multiple times) it would be days ago?
Good call Chief.
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
2412. mcluvincane
3:36 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Can't believe someone asked storm what he was doing!
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
2411. wxhatt
3:36 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting Bayside:
Storm, I sure hope you are wrong. I am very worried about something like an Isabel track. I sure don't want my house underwater! Notice it pulled north probably due to a weak weakness and then set back west before wreaking havoc here in VA, NC, DC, MD. Surge in the Chesapeake Bay was devastating.



Hi, I don't think he is seeing our posts. But I remember Isabel too. It was an odd angle of approach.
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2409. calder
3:35 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
its still going to be a fish storm.


echo, echo, echo...
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2407. canehater1
3:35 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurricane23:


Stormw let be the first to admit that this isn't my specialty.

However, It may also be related to tropical forcing from the westerly wind burst that occurred in the Pacific last week. That transfer of energy to the mid-latitudes will force the subtropical ridge back toward the Southern Plains/Four Corners and allow the trough to deepen over the Eastern U.S. With weak background flow near the Carolinas, it will also allow an upper low to cutoff temporarily. As the ridge shifts back eastward due to tropical WAA over the Southeast, the trough will kick out into the NW Atlantic.


???
What are the chances that te A-B ridge flattens out and becomes essentially one entity, taking 95-L westward into the Carribbean?
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2406. calder
3:35 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Link
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2405. Progster
3:35 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
Does anyone know what wind speeds are forecasted for central Scotland? The Met Office was forecasting for it to go quickly north and not really affect mainland scotland, but I've looked at the recent satellite images and it seems to be moving east. It's getting windy here aswell!


Oooch..aye..yer in for a right nasty blow yarrgghhh.

From UKMO: "Highlands & Eilean Siar:

Severe Gales 1700 Fri 20 0500 Sat 21
South to Southwest winds will increase to severe gale force this evening and tonight with gusts of around 70mph expected. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Scotland for further advice on road conditions."

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
2403. calder
3:35 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Well Central Scotland Wont Get affected it more Like the island of Northern Scotland wil Get 70mph Gusts


south uist got 34mph sustained. Pretty breezy here near glasgow
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
2402. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:34 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:
Stormw i wanted to reply to a question you posted on the blog yesterday if you dont mind.

Here's your question...

The A/B high and Icelandic low. I'm looking at it in the manner of, if you have a ridge over the U.S., which should be pumping the trof east of it, which will be the one dipping down, the strength of the trof depends on the strength of that ridge. Then east of the trof, you have the A/B high. Look at he shallow layer mean...both centers of the Atlantic ridge are weaker, which correlates to the current NAO state...the trof in the middle is weak. So my question is, and hopefully you can shed some light, is, if the western portion of the A/B high is weak near the east coast, how do we have a stronger trof in place, as in the trof being wedged in between whatever ridge is over the U.S., and then the A/B high?

All the points bolded, generally correlate well together. However, in the modeling world:

A. The framework of the models doesn't always output what we tend to correlate with reality, epecially many days out.

B. The relationships in bold, especially in model world, can easily become weaker, because models inherently must interpolate grid points via adjacent data points, and then try and integrate them over time with their given physics packages. So what is the model to do when it gets data, interpolates them into their gridpoints, and it doesn't "fit" into our preconceived notions of "ridge pumping = deeper trough"?? Well, if it sees a "flatter ridge at initialization, BUT a deeper trough, that's what it is going to depict....and remember, we are talking days and days out. The representation of these features in detail will verify FAR differently than any one model can depict them now. So it's not a matter of a model "mistakenly" doing something that is "nonsense" vs. a previous run.....the model doesn't know it ran before!!!! It is all within the chaotic noise that outputs can be at these time ranges.

adrian



Are the grid points "coarser" the further out the run progresses or is it just a decline in the specificity of the data?
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2401. sailingallover
3:34 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:
Quoting StormW:


Well, right now, we are in a negative NAO (as depicted).

That weakness is not large enough to even lift my pencil north right now, let alone the weak steering past 40W.

IF anyone remembers the system that recently went out to sea, the A/B ridge was more of one center, a little closer to the CATL, stronger (when we were in the positive NAO phase, which in turn, the steering layers depicted a very strong trof/weakness in the ridge which was very pronounced, east of the U.S. east coast). ENTIRELY DIFFERENT from what you see here.


I remember as clear as my nose. And in Colins case it did exactly as the models forecast other than intensity. In Colins case there was almost the same weakness in the ridge only this time it is forecast to be more pronounced. Here is the map for 144 hours. Where is the ridge?? Are you saying the model is totally wrong?
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2399. Michaelkaii10
3:31 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting 2010hurricaneseason:
Does anyone know what wind speeds are forecasted for central Scotland? The Met Office was forecasting for it to go quickly north and not really affect mainland scotland, but I've looked at the recent satellite images and it seems to be moving east. It's getting windy here aswell!


Well Central Scotland Wont Get affected it more Like the island of Northern Scotland wil Get 70mph Gusts
2398. calder
3:30 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting Cotillion:


Nope, nor have I ever claimed to be.


! Wasn't suggesting that you were. U a student or work?
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2397. Progster
3:30 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting StormW:
And looking at this, "Supertrof" is at the least, 1 week away (west of the west coast)



the thing about super trof though is that (if it arrives in a week) will teleconnect with mid continent ridging and east coast troffing...in fact day -7 CMC suggests east coast trof phasing with an upr low over NE quebec and something quasi-tropical moving up the eastern seaboard. If that's the case, there's yer amplified recurvature flow for the Verde system. It will be an interesting week, Senior Chief.
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2396. all4hurricanes
3:30 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
I hope there's a new Blog soon this one's getting stale
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2395. Bayside
3:30 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Storm, I sure hope you are wrong. I am very worried about something like an Isabel track. I sure don't want my house underwater! Notice it pulled north probably due to a weak weakness and then set back west before wreaking havoc here in VA, NC, DC, MD. Surge in the Chesapeake Bay was devastating.

Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
2394. 2010hurricaneseason
3:28 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Does anyone know what wind speeds are forecasted for central Scotland? The Met Office was forecasting for it to go quickly north and not really affect mainland scotland, but I've looked at the recent satellite images and it seems to be moving east. It's getting windy here aswell!
Member Since: June 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
2393. wxhatt
3:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Good Morning StormW!
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2392. Cotillion
3:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting calder:


U a met?


Nope, nor have I ever claimed to be.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2391. sailingallover
3:25 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting StormW:
And looking at this "Supertrof" is at the least, 1 week away (west of the west coast)


What are you doing???The trough/low that picks it up and brings it north has not even developed yet...the beginnings of it are the trough in the central US and the Low currently forming along the stalled front off the East Coast. Trace the surface analysis and SLP forecasts for the next 6 days.
HERE is the 4 day where the trough and low that will form from the low forming from the trough that will be left by low off the coast now all meet up to create your "super trough".
BUT it won't take a trough to pull it north. If the AB rdige retreats it will go north and the ridge is supposed to strengthen but then break down as those lows come off the coast.
Yes the forecast might not pan out but all the model agree and have been consistent.

Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
2389. calder
3:21 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting Cotillion:


Not in Scotland, but in the UK, yes.


U a met?
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2388. wxhatt
3:20 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Good Morning StormW,

I see things are geting more active again right on time. Should we be concerned about any potential future landfall with 95L?

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 917
2387. hurricane23
3:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:


Stormw let be the first to admit that this isn't my specialty.

However, It may also be related to tropical forcing from the westerly wind burst that occurred in the Pacific last week. That transfer of energy to the mid-latitudes will force the subtropical ridge back toward the Southern Plains/Four Corners and allow the trough to deepen over the Eastern U.S. With weak background flow near the Carolinas, it will also allow an upper low to cutoff temporarily. As the ridge shifts back eastward due to tropical WAA over the Southeast, the trough will kick out into the NW Atlantic.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13786
2386. Relix
3:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
At least it seems like a non-Caribbean/Antilles event. Models have been quite spot on this season, and with them clustered this way... hmm. Of course, it all depends when and where it actually forms but as of now I am trusting the models AT LEAST with the out-of antilles track. Now East Coast is another thing as StormW is saying.

Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
2385. TGTTX
3:17 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:

2313! KanKunKid!

Too funny dude!

I can't help but to wonder if somewhere in Japan, there is a Wunderblog type tropical weather discussion in Japanese. they're all looking at the west coast of Mexico and writing:
"It's a fish, I tell you!"
"What you saying? This is Pacific! They all fish!"
"No! No. Not this time Sakura1985! I have gut feeling!"
"NO! NO! Look at chart! See? It recurves and hit Hawaii!"
"You can't trust model so far out, I say it come here and knock socks off!"
" You crazy you drink too much saki last night"
" Well you...This comment cut off with samurai sword for being in violation of honor.


Absolutely hilarious! Thanks much for the laugh!
Member Since: July 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
2384. scott39
3:17 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
95L-- No Fish!!!
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2383. SQUAWK
3:16 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
OK, here is the problem, quoting from Storm:

Well, right now, we are in a negative NAO (as depicted).

That weakness is not large enough to even lift my pencil north right now, let alone the weak steering past 40W.

IF anyone remembers the system that recently went out to sea, the A/B ridge was more of one center, a little closer to the CATL, stronger (when we were in the positive NAO phase, which in turn, the steering layers depicted a very strong trof/weakness in the ridge which was very pronounced, east of the U.S. east coast. ENTIRELY DIFFERENT form what you see here.


I count a reference to at least 10 different interconnected qualities or entities in that statement. I can't handle more than 2. That is why I will leave forecasting up tho you!!!! LOL
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
2382. 7544
3:14 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
we might see our first buzsaw as 95l makes its long trip but will it follow jasons track and be a fish or will the high be strong enough to keep it west stay tuned more to come
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6811
2381. mrpuertorico
3:14 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting Jax82:


Is that an ULL north of PR? If so, where is it expected to go?


Its a TUTT and its moving west
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
2380. scott39
3:12 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
StormW is right!! Listen to him.
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2379. hydrus
3:12 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Its a good thing that wave is so far north....jk..
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2377. scott39
3:11 PM GMT on August 20, 2010
westward
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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