The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


Morning kman! Good to see you!!


Hi Storm

Likewise. This one has the look of being one of those large CV systems. The aerial coverage is very extensive. Slow movers have a tendency of becoming very strong but that also increases the odds of an early recurve.

All we can do is watch and wait until it settles down into some discernible pattern going forward.
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2076. dmaddox
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2075. dmaddox
they dusted the dust off the orange crayon!! whoop! :)
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
hello stormw its going to be a big fish storm by next week and the next storm will be a fish storm to.
have you done your analysis and posted it on your blog yet...oh wait, guess that would be a you tube video not a blog. Tell me, will you be using the whip cream to show your analysis for this one ???
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2073. scott39
post--2041?
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2072. tkeith
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
fish storms going out to sea.
where's the video?
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Quoting StormW:


Good morning, ma'am!


Hi Storm. Can you post one of those charts that shows the highs over the
Atlantic right now?
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40%
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2068. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Steak fries and pork and beans.
Better save those pork and beans Ike...just in case
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Its go time.
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Quoting IKE:


Exactly.

Also...how far west does it have to get for recon to fly?

Where's the floater on it?
I feel like I'd win if I decide to run for president in the next election; Hell, I would've won in the last election for that matter.
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2064. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Steak fries and pork and beans.
LOL, Thats good with everything!
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Good morning ike .Been a real busy with work and home so have not been able to post.First let me admit to storm top i was wrong about the remnants of td 5.So lenny i owe you a poboy and a bowl of Gumbo.But at 46 years old I should have known better than to hype up something during this hurricane season lol.Now back to my present cast which i will certainly stay with.Being that the tropics are so quite lately i went back and checked all the cyclones that formed before 40 west td strength or above.Out of 30plus systems that formed prior to 40 west since 1995 only five formed before 40 west fran Bertha georges isabell ike.And ike barelymade it it was classiefied at 39.5 west lol.So my theory over all the arguing and posting for a system thats 4000 miles away that has less than a 10% chance of affecting the conus even if the conditions were right seems silly.The folks in the islands should have concern but people in the conus at this point lol.Also i see this season has become such a let down they are now tracking pre invest.I personally wish they would go back to just a tropical weather outlook get rid of the circles.Also Ike I see cws is trying to keep the drama alive about this storm threatening land. I swear his post are identical almost to the same propoganda that miamihurr009 spits out and he doesnt even know his real age but i do and it is not the 13 he first claimed lol.So folks once again i am not a downcaster just a present caster.And the present is 3-1-0 with a possible name coming up that will only be a threat to fish and our merchant shippers.Remember this a present cast lol Storm Ike have a blessed day.
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Quoting IKE:


Exactly.

Also...how far west does it have to get for recon to fly?

Where's the floater on it?
come on NHC, send the the recon out of Africa, would be a short trip...and we would get all of the questions answered.

on the other hand, they may not have classified it a TD or TS yet and no recon cause jason has declared the season a fish. I believe I just saw on the local news the NHC workers are packing their bags for the season and going home and all of the computers were being put away til next season.
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2061. MahFL
Lol good one StormyW.....so fish = Miami cat 5 landfall ?
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2060. tkeith
Quoting Chicklit:
Time to switch to Decaf Boys.
lol...I think you're right :)
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2059. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike, What kind of side dishes do you want if 95 isnt a Fish?


Steak fries and pork and beans.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Time to switch to Decaf Boys.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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2054. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
690

WHXX01 KWBC 201125

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1125 UTC FRI AUG 20 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100820 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100820 0600 100820 1800 100821 0600 100821 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 25.3W 11.5N 26.5W 11.8N 28.2W 12.1N 30.2W

BAMD 11.0N 25.3W 11.4N 26.5W 12.0N 28.1W 12.6N 30.2W

BAMM 11.0N 25.3W 11.5N 26.4W 11.9N 28.1W 12.4N 30.2W

LBAR 11.0N 25.3W 11.4N 26.9W 12.3N 29.1W 13.2N 31.9W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100822 0600 100823 0600 100824 0600 100825 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 32.3W 13.9N 37.2W 16.8N 44.3W 19.1N 50.9W

BAMD 13.1N 32.8W 14.0N 38.8W 15.8N 44.5W 19.7N 49.0W

BAMM 12.8N 32.5W 14.0N 37.9W 16.4N 44.5W 19.3N 50.1W

LBAR 14.1N 35.1W 15.2N 42.3W 14.7N 48.7W 19.2N 49.5W

SHIP 56KTS 81KTS 91KTS 92KTS

DSHP 56KTS 81KTS 91KTS 92KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 25.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 24.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 22.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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2053. scott39
Ike, What kind of side dishes do you want if 95 isnt a Fish?
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2052. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Oh. I think I missed a joke :|
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2049. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
This invest to should be a TD by now! I can't believe it isn't...NHC needs to wake up over there already! I bet because it is so far away from land that they don't care as much about it.

This is a TD if I have ever seen one! HELLLLLLOOOOO 2010!


Exactly.

Also...how far west does it have to get for recon to fly?

Where's the floater on it?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
SmileyCentral.com

Wha- what did Texas do to anger the GFS Gods???
Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Good morning all

Last night I thought this would be an Invest no later than noon today and here we are. 95L is a little ahead of my curve for it to develop as a TD. My thinking was 48 hrs ( Saturday night ) but it could be quicker looking at how the convection has increased overnight and the surface pressure.

This is a slow mover which will complicate both the track and intensity forecast. Typically, one would expect a system getting out of the gate this early and already North of 10 degrees that far East to recurve NE of the Caribbean. Obviously too soon to say on that score.

Interesting couple of days ahead.
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2045. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Fri 20 Aug 2010 11:30:01Z
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico

Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere

Current Northwest Pacific* Tropical Systems
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0430Z

Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0900Z

As of Tue 17 Aug 2010 10:30:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
95L.INVEST
East Pacific
92E.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
93W.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Dr. Masters said models this far out should not be trusted. Interesting how they forecast the new AOI/Invest to rise out of the ITCZ. The billion dollar question is, how much and how fast that happens.
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
8-10 day pattern on the GFS/EURO show exactly the toss up we have within our model guidance this morning. EURO 8-10 day 500mb means shows increasing heights from south of Greenland, east of Labador, Canada and stretching towards the NEern US states showing the presence of a ridge over the NW Atlantic perhaps blocking any type of hurricane going northward and out to sea. The -NAO reaching its most negative values recently will begin to respond towards neutral and positive levels sometime around September 1st. Hurricane makes closest approach sometime before than around AUG 29-31. So with time the A/B high strengthens as our storm gets trapped underneath the ridge.

This means that the models will head more westward with time. Our broad low is around 10N/25W currently and another extension of the broad LLC is around 15W and 13N with an area of convection associated with it. Conditions are slowly becoming favorable for development. Blog update this afternoon after the 12z EURO comes out.


I look forward to that! You're a great contributor, friend.

I'll have a blog of my own up later today, once I get some sleep.
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2041. scott39
What longitude and lattitude will Invest 95 have to be at timing wise, to be effected by the Trof?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Models should shift left on the next run.


Main thing that shows with the BAMs so tightly clustered is a low shear environment, at least from the GFS model.
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8-10 day pattern on the GFS/EURO show exactly the toss up we have within our model guidance this morning. EURO 8-10 day 500mb means shows increasing heights from south of Greenland, east of Labador, Canada and stretching towards the NEern US states showing the presence of a ridge over the NW Atlantic perhaps blocking any type of hurricane going northward and out to sea. The -NAO reaching its most negative values recently will begin to respond towards neutral and positive levels sometime around September 1st. Hurricane makes closest approach sometime before than around AUG 29-31. So with time the A/B high strengthens as our storm gets trapped underneath the ridge.

This means that the models will head more westward with time. Our broad low is around 10N/25W currently and another extension of the broad LLC is around 15W and 13N with an area of convection associated with it. Conditions are slowly becoming favorable for development. Blog update this afternoon after the 12z EURO comes out.
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Quoting StormW:


Fish.


Why do those numbers make it a fish?
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Quoting IKE:
Eastern-PAC firing up...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Whoa, wow. Just 12 hours ago it was only 20%. Amazing how quickly things can change.
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2028. scott39
Now we have something to track!
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EATLWVLoop

11N 25.3W
Will this get a floater now?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.