The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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2127. scott39
What is the depth of 95L?
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2120. Patrap
Morn' EDF.

Friday!!!!!!!!!!
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2119. Patrap


Push it..push it baby..?
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Morning Pat
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Good Morning.... StormW, Chicklit, KOG, Keith, Kman, Hunker, IKE, and Waterpup (if your waggin you tail yet)
Sips black coffee with one eye open....
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2113. Patrap
2110. GTcooliebai


Oh I hope not.
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Quoting Engine2:

What troughs? I only see 1 and its not far enough south
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Good Morning Everyone...Are finnaly going to see some development in the Atlantic?
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Its a ghost trough. They are very common on the weather underground blog.
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you can see the weakness in the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook image
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2105. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Do you think it would be unusual for a strong high to turn her back this time of year?


It could happen.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2104. Patrap
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Quoting StormW:


???


Quoting StormW:


???




That doesn't bode well for the east coast
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2102. Engine2
Quoting Jeff9641:


She is gonna be a fish storm IKE. Too strong of a trough next week along the east coast. This could be a common occurrance of the east coast trough from here on out. I also don't see my numbers of 15 to 17 coming true either maybe 12 to 14. I will say this the east coast troughs could be killer if a storm gets in the Caribbean.

What troughs? I only see 1 and its not far enough south
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2099. help4u
These storms all curving thousands of miles off shore ,see nothing to change this pattern,the high impact season is not going to happen.
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Well ike 5 out of 35 since 95 the odds are pretty great as i detailed in my previous post.Must have got overlooked to the 100 posts about our sereghetti hippo storm lol.
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2097. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Fri 20 Aug 2010 12:04:01Z
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico

Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere

Current Northwest Pacific* Tropical Systems
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0430Z

Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 20/0900Z

As of Tue 17 Aug 2010 10:30:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
95L.INVEST
East Pacific
08E.EIGHT(T.C.F.W.)
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
93W.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Good Morning.... StormW, Chicklit, KOG, Keith, Kman, Hunker, and Waterpup (if your waggin you tail yet)

Sips black coffee with one eye open....
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2093. Vero1
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Ok, looks like we have chum in the water this morning. There should be plenty of WU sharks in the water today.
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2089. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
off to work i go later all all updated tech info can be found here on my blog

Link
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East Pacific upgrade


invest_RENUMBER_ep922010_ep082010.ren 20-Aug-2010 11:46 931
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Quoting Chicklit:
According to the models, which are still highly unreliable this far out, (but more credible than Jason), AL95 is still south of 20N at 50W.
but what a model he is...
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2085. tkeith
Quoting Chicklit:
According to the models, which are still highly unreliable this far out, (but more credible than Jason), AL95 is still south of 20N at 50W.


:)
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I have a busy day ahead so have to run now. Will be back later.

BFN
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According to the models, which are still highly unreliable this far out, (but more credible than Jason), AL95 is still south of 20N at 50W.
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2081. scott39
Quoting IKE:
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 32.3W 13.9N 37.2W 16.8N 44.3W 19.1N 50.9W

BAMD 13.1N 32.8W 14.0N 38.8W 15.8N 44.5W 19.7N 49.0W

BAMM 12.8N 32.5W 14.0N 37.9W 16.4N 44.5W 19.3N 50.1W

LBAR 14.1N 35.1W 15.2N 42.3W 14.7N 48.7W 19.2N 49.5..........................

Near 20N and 50W on all of them too and moving WNW to NW.....better be a strong high to turn her back west.....
Do you think it would be unusual for a strong high to turn her back this time of year?
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U know storm, I a amazed at ur forecasting skills. I have read every synopsis for the past month and have learned a great deal from u. Thanks for all ur time and effort. By the way from what I have read and learned I don't think this new invest will go OTS. IMO
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2079. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Better save those pork and beans Ike...just in case


lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2078. IKE
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 32.3W 13.9N 37.2W 16.8N 44.3W 19.1N 50.9W

BAMD 13.1N 32.8W 14.0N 38.8W 15.8N 44.5W 19.7N 49.0W

BAMM 12.8N 32.5W 14.0N 37.9W 16.4N 44.5W 19.3N 50.1W

LBAR 14.1N 35.1W 15.2N 42.3W 14.7N 48.7W 19.2N 49.5..........................

Near 20N and 50W on all of them too and moving WNW to NW.....better be a strong high to turn her back west.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


Morning kman! Good to see you!!


Hi Storm

Likewise. This one has the look of being one of those large CV systems. The aerial coverage is very extensive. Slow movers have a tendency of becoming very strong but that also increases the odds of an early recurve.

All we can do is watch and wait until it settles down into some discernible pattern going forward.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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