The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2227 - 2177

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Thanks for the graph, Storm.

--

The large scale effect was largely caused by blocking and the relation to the jetstream positioning.

Doesn't the NAO have some impact on that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So whats the deal. We have like 5 different Jasonxxx now? They also stole the original Jason's avatar? Really admin, come on??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Snowlover123:


Yep. ;) Still folks in the NE should keep a close eye on this. The pressures look low, even for a Nor'Easter; but you can't tell the exact pressure with the models.

-Snow


Yea, interesting to see a storm like that "bomb" in August. Looks likes a rainy and windy late week for New England. This is the storm and trough that is expected to ultimately catapult Danielle into the north Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2224. srada
Quoting StormW:


It can, per se. I don't know if everyone remembers Dean and Felix...they both had pretty potent upper to almost mid level lows (cutoff) directly in their path, or a little NW directly in front of them. I thought at the time, it would tug them further north, and hence I was right of model guidance. These features were persistent with both storms through their cycle. Guess what?


they continued west..a lot of players in the potential setup..thanks StormW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I do...but I've been researching it...and we can't base the activity on the QBO alone...I truly believe the QBO works in combination with the Solar MAX/MIN, El Nino/La Nina, AMO, etc.

QBO is the bottom chart


Hey Storm what exactly does QBO stand for & how does it affect the hurricane season, by the way I noticed as soon as I posted the link for the ECMWF that it was outdated, LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm, or anyone at that:

The NWS from Atlanta wrote this in their discussion. What is your thoughts on this?

ECMWF/GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY BEYOND THIS POINT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PUSHES MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LEAVE A LINGERING SFC LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...SOMETHING I AM ALWAYS LEARY
OF AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MIGHT EVEN YET BE THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
NO 5 ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS TAKES THIS SFC LOW WEST INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT BACK NORTH INTO GA LATE NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:


That storm will not be warm core along the NE coast - it will be baroclinic. It develops along the front, Nor'easter type storm.


Yep. ;) Still folks in the NE should keep a close eye on this. The pressures look low, even for a Nor'Easter; but you can't tell the exact pressure with the models.

-Snow
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
BTW, what is that off the NC/SC coast this morning ?


Off this morning?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Looks like a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No development expected from that. ;)
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Snowlover123:
Good Morning! :)

The CMC and GFS continue to show a potential troublemaker along the Eastern Seaboard...



CMC



GFS

-Snow


That storm will not be warm core along the NE coast - it will be baroclinic. It develops along the front, Nor'easter type storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Hurricane season expected to heat up

Excerpts:



``Aug. 20 is that one day when we say the bell tolls,'' said Todd Kimberlain, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center. `It's right around the time when we see this huge ramp-up.''


Much of that vast ocean remains in what meteorologists call the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, a lengthy pattern that tends to produce more storms. Atlantic Ocean temperatures also are running as high. A La Niña pattern, marked by cooling temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, typically tends to reduce wind shear, making it easier for storms in theAtlantic to form and strengthen.

Still, meteorologists say, some factors have limited storms so far, including more wind shear than expected, dry Saharan dust injecting itself into waves and a large-scale effect that helped stabilize the atmosphere in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Temperature differences between the warm ocean and cooler air aloft tend to create the unstable atmosphere that fuel hurricanes, but for reasons Kimberlain said were not well understood, the lower-level cool seemed to tamp down storm development.

``That signal is fading away now,'' he said. ``We are back to where we should be climatologically.''


That "large-scale effect" must've been from that Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flooding that no one saw coming in the pre-season forecast, which also might have been responsible for the dry air in the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


It can, per se. I don't know if everyone remembers Dean and Felix...they both had pretty potent upper to almost mid level lows (cutoff) directly in their path, or a little NW directly in front of them. I thought at the time, it would tug them further north, and hence I was right of model guidance. These features were persistent with both storms through their cycle. Guess what?
I know this one. they both continued WEST. Dean was forecast to make a direct hit on the Cayman Islands and fortunately continued west to pass south of us. We did have hurricane force winds on the east coast but he was far enough south that is was not too bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


We should pretty much remain in an easterly QBO for the next couple of months (easterly = less favored phase)


Right.

Would you happen to have any statistics for it on how far it goes back?

Be interested to see how it may correlate to major hurricanes at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all!

I am checking in to see who has the best storyline today on "As the Storm Turns".
Looks like the number of cast members and wannabe's are increasing...this is just
like Hollywood - everybody wants to be the
main star!..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Snowlover123:
Good Morning! :)

The CMC and GFS continue to show a potential troublemaker along the Eastern Seaboard...



CMC



GFS

-Snow
BTW, what is that off the NC/SC coast this morning ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2207. IKE
MJO....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good Morning! :)

The CMC and GFS continue to show a potential troublemaker along the Eastern Seaboard...



CMC



GFS

-Snow
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Storm, on the QBO:

Is it expected to become favourable for development below 15N anytime soon, or is it stuck for the next period (however long the graph/models etc go on for)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane season expected to heat up

Excerpts:



``Aug. 20 is that one day when we say the bell tolls,'' said Todd Kimberlain, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center. `It's right around the time when we see this huge ramp-up.''


Much of that vast ocean remains in what meteorologists call the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, a lengthy pattern that tends to produce more storms. Atlantic Ocean temperatures also are running as high. A La Niña pattern, marked by cooling temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, typically tends to reduce wind shear, making it easier for storms in theAtlantic to form and strengthen.

Still, meteorologists say, some factors have limited storms so far, including more wind shear than expected, dry Saharan dust injecting itself into waves and a large-scale effect that helped stabilize the atmosphere in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Temperature differences between the warm ocean and cooler air aloft tend to create the unstable atmosphere that fuel hurricanes, but for reasons Kimberlain said were not well understood, the lower-level cool seemed to tamp down storm development.

``That signal is fading away now,'' he said. ``We are back to where we should be climatologically.''
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:


It is not just the GFS. The first model runs from the BAMMs suite, NGPS all turn it way north before 55W.


thats just it though, you have 100 hrs + for this to be true so Im not sure at this point if its worth all the tension that it seems to be creating and there are some model runs that leave a measure of doubt as to how strong that frontal system is and if it will even be south enough to interact with the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2201. breald
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Well I got my first and last violation. Nice.

I dont bring any politics into this blog but I do try to add some humor. #2165 - Jason should know it wasnt anything done with bad intentions. But I'll leave the nonsense out this morning and I do offer my apologies if anyone was offended.


Well, gosh darn it also, you didn't offend me...LOL Don't worry about it, most on here are not that sensitive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2200. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

So we have 95L? I have a question though for the blog..accuweather was saying last night that ex-td05 could redevelop off the the NC carolina coast, if that does happen, wouldnt that play a part in 95L path..can a storm influence another storm steering? Both the GFS and Euro model were picking up the NC storm in the last runs. Would they be too far away from each other to feel the effects of each other..thats if they develop..TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2199. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msgambler:
Storm, Ike, Pat, D'Fly, Good Morning


Morning Gambler!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2197. Patrap


Stay Thirsty my friends

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning All,

Finally done with my two weeks of days rotation. Looking forward to being back on nights next week. Looks like we will have some storms over the next week to track and monitor. Hope they do not become monsters in the GOM, or for that matter anywhere that can cause havoc for anyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2195. IKE
Quoting Vero1:
Thanks, IKE


Western high moves west...eastern high stays in place...weakness between the 2. If this spins up like the models are forecasting, it's catfish time.

Maybe the models will change.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
If the models are wrong, you'll need The Most Interesting Man in the World (tm).

He once dissipated a hurricane... just by breathing on it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
that was very fast.

The score is 8-5 in favor of the EPAC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well I got my first and last violation. Nice.

I dont bring any politics into this blog but I do try to add some humor. #2165 - Jason should know it wasnt anything done with bad intentions. But I'll leave the nonsense out this morning and I do offer my apologies if anyone was offended.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting breald:


If she is a politician, I am a meteorologist. Both would be bad to relay on. But you are right bad call.


That and once everyone realizes it... All politicians are a BAD call... LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2188. Vero1
Thanks, IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Yes but Andrew was a very weak Tropical Storm until it began to rapidly intensify around 66 degrees west.

Which might happen here, by the looks of satelite presentation 95L is quite large & may take some time to consolidate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2186. IKE
Quoting Vero1:
Storm, is this what the models are seeing?



That map kind of depicts what may happen.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2183. Patrap
2180. MrMarcus


U betcha

Morn' ms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Now while Jason may take that the wrong way I have nothing but love for the guy.

Earthlydragonflygrasshopper thinks this is about politics...nice try.

But really, we just needed a smiling face to cheer us all up and who has a better smiling face than Sarah?
I like Sarah.. My wife looks Exaclty like her!! But you taken a shot against a political view.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another quiet day in the tropics...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:


Models are NOT gospel.


Trust me, as soon as models start shifting left Jason will b the first 2 say no fish storm then say he was right all along.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vero1:
Storm, is this what the models are seeing?

I think this is what the GFS is seeing...and likely causing the recurve back on this intel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm, Ike, Pat, D'Fly, Good Morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2227 - 2177

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
80 °F
Overcast