The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 177 - 127

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Quoting reedzone:
I did say the models will shift westward in time, maybe this afternoon?


Hour 102:



Hour 108:



Hour 114:



Hour 120:



Hour 126:



Hour 132:



Hour 138:



Hour 144:



Hour 150:



Hour 156:



Hour 162:



Hour 168:



Hour 174:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


You're not seeing things.


SAY WHAT??? Off to look.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Or recurve between the East Coast and Bermuda like Bill of last year.


That too.. Could do that as well, but the high looks to long to recurve east of there..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


More ridging in this one.. may go to the East Coast.


This run is getting interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I did say the models will shift westward in time, maybe this afternoon?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


More ridging in this one.. may go to the East Coast.


Or recurve between the East Coast and Bermuda like Bill of last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
171. DDR
Good afternoon
Thunderstorms and heavy rain in north and western Trinidad,street/flash floods are taking place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hour 84:



Hour 90:



Hour 96:



More ridging in this one.. may go to the East Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Well, that particular map, looking at the 500mb, has west written all over it.


I didn't say the path *would* develop. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jrweatherman:
Looks like the GFS wants the CV system to be a depression by tomorrow. I don't see it happening that fast. More like Sunday/Monday.

If Dr. M thought it would a depression that soon he would not have had a header- "the tropics are quiet".

So the more time it takes for development so the mostefa westerly tracked will accurate.
Member Since: May 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hour 84:



Notice what the A/B high appears to be doing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im Wandering,,

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hour 84:



Hour 90:



Hour 96:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
163. 7544
Quoting StormW:


If this is in fact what they were looking at, I can't rule it out right now.



now now strom really the blog is going to be a ticking time bomb till wends now lol

but i always listen to you that doe s not look too good for the bahmas and fla
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Which storm?


The one out SW of the Cape Verde Islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


If this is in fact what they were looking at, I can't rule it out right now.



I think that is a three day old run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So Storm, you then agree with the model and map that is effective August 25?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
By 72 hours, the ridge over Florida is moving west over the GOM, and looks to be allowing the storm a path to the north.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Portlight.org and Pakistan

We are blessed to be able to facilitate providing assistance to people with disabilities in Pakistan. While not directly involved in delivering relief, we have been able to connect local DPO's (Disabled people's organizations) with important sources of food, water filtration systems and durable medical equipment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
I think Brett Favre's flip-lopping can be classified as a re-curvature?

The angles that his appendeges will be in after the opening game for sure could be
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


AMS Glossary

recurvature%u2014The change in direction of tropical cyclone movement from westward and poleward to eastward and poleward, under the influence of midlatitude westerlies.
Such recurvature of the path frequently occurs as storms move into midlatitudes and is a major concern in tropical cyclone forecasting.


So if a system goes due North say along the 60 West line and not East then it is called just a curve?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think Brett Favre's flip-lopping can be classified as a re-curvature?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Dumb question.....but why do they call it a recurve and not a curve?


AMS Glossary

recurvature—The change in direction of tropical cyclone movement from westward and poleward to eastward and poleward, under the influence of midlatitude westerlies.
Such recurvature of the path frequently occurs as storms move into midlatitudes and is a major concern in tropical cyclone forecasting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jrweatherman:
Looks like the GFS wants the CV system to be a depression by tomorrow. I don't see it happening that fast. More like Sunday/Monday.

If Dr. M thought it would a depression that soon he would not have had a header- "the tropics are quiet".


Actually, it looked like there was the depression at 12 hours that fizzled out by Saturday, with the stronger storm following 12-24 hours behind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
At 36 hours, ridging filling in between the A/B high and Florida. There's also a small ridge just off to the west of the depression THAT MEAN NO FISH STORM....


Wait for it. By hour 60 steering patterns look to change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


What time period on the model runs?


Link

Storm I believe this is what the blogger is referring to , looks like an old model run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
At 36 hours, ridging filling in between the A/B high and Florida. There's also a small ridge just off to the west of the depression THAT MEAN NO FISH STORM....


Wait... I saw a video you did a few days ago... and you said Fish storm fish storm fish storm.. whats up??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the GFS wants the CV system to be a depression by tomorrow. I don't see it happening that fast. More like Sunday/Monday.

If Dr. M thought it would a depression that soon he would not have had a header- "the tropics are quiet".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


You're not seeing things.

This want to be storm is really harrassing us here in Louisiana and the entire Northern Gulf Coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


You're not seeing things.


Praise the Lord...I have before!!! :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Same question has been asked the last few years on here.


Thanks. Was there ever an answer given?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
133. IKE
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Dumb question.....but why do they call it a recurve and not a curve?


Same question has been asked the last few years on here.

Also...Dr. Masters calls it a recurve.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
he said that the map posted is valid from August 25 (next Wednesday)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
Things appear to be coming together of the african coast this morning, still leaning towards a recurve with this one.


Dumb question.....but why do they call it a recurve and not a curve?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
107. KanKunKid 3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2010
LOL...
Thanks Storm for all the work you put in for us "Don't know crap about weather forecasting" people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm

Just looked at my local radar (mobile) and it looks as if the remnants of td5 want to drop down into the gulf again. Is this even possible or am I just seeing things. Nice circulation!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
128. unf97
Quoting angiest:


Was hoping to get a heavy snow in Dallas from that storm (and get out of school), but unfortunately for us it got its act together a little to late to give us more than maybe a light dusting.


We had it all here in NE FL from the March '93 Superstorm. Severe storms and tornadoes to temps in the 30s and sustained winds 30 gust 40 -45 mph with light snow the following day. Unforgettable storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At 36 hours, ridging filling in between the A/B high and Florida. There's also a small ridge just off to the west of the depression.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 177 - 127

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
70 °F
Overcast