The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 277 - 227

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

,,,,,," The great active 2010 hurricane season",,,,,yeah right!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


they are only garbage when they shows 3 or 4 storms, but when they only show 1 or none; then they are to be trusted

*rolls eyes*

Ha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


I thought long-range models are garbage. :)


they are only garbage when they show 3 or 4 storms, but when they only show 1 or none; then they are to be trusted

*rolls eyes*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The remnants of our CV storm are quite strong:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmm that vort is developing nicely SW of the CV Islands wow

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
GFS shows nothing else through September 4th. That is great news!


I thought long-range models are garbage. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry DestinJeff, just adding some reality to the blog ;)
NOTHING IS SET IN STONE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
268. IKE
GFS shows nothing else through September 4th. That is great news!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting NEwxguy:
Yesterday the cry was west,west,today its fish,fish fish. Can we wait until we have something the models can grab a hold of? Tomorrow its going to the gulf,gulf.


Don't waste your breath, the long range model worshippers are unflappable....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alaina1085:
I have seen all of this said before, but until the storm actually forms im not getting to excited about a fish storm. Lately with how the patterns and wind shear maps have literally changed daily nothing is set in stone! If that were the case we would have had 3 hurricanes already by now... if not more.


Someone finally gets it, good post
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
265. MTWX
Quoting LoneStarWeather:
Quoting MTWX:
I love all of the arguing over path and models... All of which aren't worth anything until a storm actually forms... So what's the point???

Plus, if you argue over something that never really happens, you can't be wrong!

good point
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


Like GW theory.


* haha, funny. don't get started. Just mocking the debate, that is all. *

I knew that somehow this discussion would recurve back to GW. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Yup....

I'll take another healthy helping of catfish....throw in some shoe-string fries this time...a helping of pork and beans...little ketchup for the fries...healthy piece of chocolate cake for desert...tall glass of iced Coke...and I'm set...





better get some tums with that lunch. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have seen all of this said before, but until the storm actually forms im not getting to excited about a fish storm. Lately with how the patterns and wind shear maps have literally changed daily nothing is set in stone! If that were the case we would have had 3 hurricanes already by now... if not more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:
I love all of the arguing over path and models... All of which aren't worth anything until a storm actually forms... So what's the point???
Quoting angiest:


It's fun.

Plus, if you argue over something that never really happens, you can't be wrong!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
Yesterday the cry was west,west,today its fish,fish fish. Can we wait until we have something the models can grab a hold of? Tomorrow its going to the gulf,gulf.


Absolutely not, you know how this blog can be? No patience whatsoever. It is either with the season being too slow for them or wanting to call a storm a Fish before it has even developed

Many don't seem to enjoy the tracking of the storm and watching it form, they just want to label it before it even forms. To be honest it takes a lot away from those who want to seriously track a storm and learn about how they form and what forces systems to move the way they do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jeff, the 926 hPa central pressure for the Southern Hemisphere storm is not unusual but typical for winter-time storms in the Southern Ocean. The background pressure in the Southern Hemisphere at those polar latitudes is on average 950-960 hPa during July and August, so a 920-930 hPa cyclone really isn't much to get excited about...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People are starting to make sense on here now :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

That's like people who say "irregardless".


Not even close to being the same. Recurve is a verb meaning to curve or bend something backward. Where TCs are concerned, recurvation occurs when a westbound storm is picked up and flung "back" to the northeast. OTOH, irregardless is an outdated, internally-redundant, and "humorous" portmanteau of irrespective and regardless that means the same thing as, well, regardless.

So there you have it: recurve is scientific; irregardless is just silly.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13726
Quoting MTWX:
I love all of the arguing over path and models... All of which aren't worth anything until a storm actually forms... So what's the point???


It's fun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yesterday the cry was west,west,today its fish,fish fish. Can we wait until we have something the models can grab a hold of? Tomorrow its going to the gulf,gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm blown away that so many people already want to write off this storm based on models that flucuate wildly over the course of a few days...especially since said storm is NOT EVEN ORGANIZED YET!

All the people who actually know what they're talking about are refusing to predict the path 7 days from now because it foolish to do so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Just to recap...



LMAO JEFF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
i am going to say fish storm now look at all the maps all saying fish storm by next week a very big cold front will make it go out to sea.. if you live in the northeast its going only to be 70F BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TEMP IN THE 40s AT NIGHT ..


Is that the same monster cold front that went through Moscow???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ITS SEXY FISH STORM its time to buy some fish to eat.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
248. MTWX
I love all of the arguing over path and models... All of which aren't worth anything until a storm actually forms... So what's the point???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Just to recap...



Thanks DestinJeff, people need to understand it's too early. It's fun to watch the models do their thing though..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


But if it showed it slamming into the east coast....watch out.

This blog is amusing. Actually predictable and amusing.


It's amusing indeed! I laughed after it showed this storm hitting me about 2 days ago at 276 hours :P

Everybody gets soo hyped over something that has NOT FORMED, it's definitely amusing and really what makes the blog "wunderground".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I'm trying to remember 43.


Lol. I was just thinking I'm trying to remember 1993 and this super storm everyone was talking about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:


now now strom really the blog is going to be a ticking time bomb till wends now lol

but i always listen to you that doe s not look too good for the bahmas and fla


But does it not indicate a northerly curve- turning from WNW to NW to N than NE? Hopefully, turning away from CONUS?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry if this already has been asked, but what's the spin to the northeast of the islands? Is is upper level? It's clear on visible satellite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
241. IKE
Quoting reedzone:
It's too early to call it a fish or an East Coast threat. Sorry, facts are indeed facts. You shouldn't go by what the models show every run. Wait till it actually forms.


But if it showed it slamming into the east coast....watch out.

This blog is amusing. Actually predictable and amusing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
i am going to say fish storm now look at all the maps all saying fish storm by next week a very big cold front will make it go out to sea.. if you live in the northeast its going only to be 70F BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TEMP IN THE 40s AT NIGHT ..
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
you sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
238. IKE
Quoting angiest:
The A/B high is in full retreat!



As Ken "the Hawk" Harrelson says on the White Sox broadcast when a White Sox pitcher K's an opposing batter....

He gawn.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
It's too early to call it a fish or an East Coast threat. Sorry, facts are indeed facts. You shouldn't go by what the models show every run. Wait till it actually forms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
235. MTWX
Quoting Snowlover123:


I'm not Pat, but I don' think so. Even if it did, it wouldn't develop, as its durface circulation has dissipated. It only has a circulation aloft.

-Snow

Not really worried about development... It has dropped alot of rain, causing a great deal of flooding, in its first 2 passes. Alot of those areas in East central LA and SW MS don't need anymore rain for the time being
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The A/B high is in full retreat!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is either very strong or undergoing extratropical transition early:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
229. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
If the 12Z GFS is out to lunch, I bet I know what it is having.


Yup....

I'll take another healthy helping of catfish....throw in some shoe-string fries this time...a helping of pork and beans...little ketchup for the fries...healthy piece of chocolate cake for desert...tall glass of iced Coke...and I'm set...



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting clwstmchasr:


He's probably referring to the wish/westcasters.


Where are they? I must have them on ignore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Jason, didn't you just say a few minutes ago that it was not going to be a fish storm????


He Sure did:

At 36 hours, ridging filling in between the A/B high and Florida. There's also a small ridge just off to the west of the depression THAT MEAN NO FISH STORM....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 277 - 227

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
44 °F
Overcast